Honestly, if you've lived in Missouri for more than a week, you know the drill. You check the window, see a blizzard, check again ten minutes later, and it's basically shorts weather. It's the "Show Me" state, but usually, what it shows us is just a mess of slush and broken promises from the local news.
Right now, everyone is asking the same thing: when is it going to snow in Missouri for real? Not that pathetic dusting that disappears before the coffee is brewed. We're talking about the kind of snow that actually stays on the ground and shuts down I-70.
The Short Answer: Mark Your Calendar for Late January
If you're looking for the big one, the data is pointing toward a very specific window. According to the latest 2026 patterns and local meteorology, the most significant snow showers are likely to hit between January 24 and January 25, 2026.
Currently, things are pretty quiet. Today, Saturday, January 17, it’s mostly sunny with a high of 26°F. It's cold enough to freeze your eyelashes, sure, but the sky is clear. We just came off a Friday where some of you saw a mix of rain and snow, but it didn't really have the "oomph" to stick.
The next few days look like a lot of "almost but not quite."
- Sunday, Jan 18: Mostly cloudy, but only a 10-15% chance of flakes.
- Monday, Jan 19: High of 21°F. It’ll feel like winter, but the moisture just isn't there.
- The Mid-Week Thaw: Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 20-21) are actually going to warm up into the mid-40s.
This little warm-up is a classic Missouri fake-out. Don't let it fool you into putting the shovel back in the shed.
The January 24th Event: Why This One Matters
So, what’s happening on the 24th? The forecast models are showing a shift in wind direction to the northeast. That’s usually the signal for something more substantial. We’re looking at a 35% chance of snow showers during the day and continuing into the night.
By Sunday, January 25, those snow showers are expected to linger. Temperatures will stay stubborn, hovering around a high of 30°F and dropping to 17°F at night. This is the "Goldilocks" zone for snow—cold enough to stay frozen but warm enough to hold moisture.
La Niña is Messing With Everything
You’ve probably heard the weather folks talking about La Niña. Basically, it’s a cooling of the water in the Pacific that dictates how the jet stream behaves. For us in Missouri, a "weak" La Niña—which is what we have in early 2026—is like a wild card.
National Weather Service data suggests that a weak La Niña often results in colder-than-normal temperatures for our region about 77% of the time. But "colder" doesn't always mean "snowier." Sometimes it just means "misery."
Interestingly, the Old Farmer’s Almanac had predicted a drier-than-usual winter for the "Heartland" region. They weren't totally wrong. Most of January has been a bit of a "snow drought." But as La Niña begins to transition toward a "neutral" phase (which is expected between January and March 2026), the weather patterns become even more unpredictable. That’s when we usually get those surprise "clobbering" storms.
Where in Missouri Will it Hit Hardest?
Missouri is a big state, and the weather in St. Joseph is rarely the same as it is in Branson.
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- Northern Missouri: You’re usually the first to get the cold air, but this year the moisture has been dodging you. Expect the late January system to bring more "fluff" than ice.
- The Ozarks: You guys are the kings of the "ice-to-snow" transition. Keep an eye on those overnight lows. If it dips to 18°F like it's supposed to on the 24th, you’re in the clear for actual snow.
- St. Louis/KC Corridors: Expect the usual traffic chaos. Even two inches of snow on the 24th will turn the highways into a skating rink because of the preceding "warm" days.
What You Should Actually Do Now
Look, nobody wants to be the person at Walmart fighting over the last loaf of bread when the first flake falls. Since we know a potential system is brewing for the 24th and 25th, here is the move:
Check Your Salt Supply
Check the garage today. If you're out of salt or melt, buy it now. By the 23rd, the shelves will be empty.
Watch the "Northeast" Wind
If you see the forecast start calling for sustained winds from the North or Northeast around Jan 23, that’s your confirmation. That direction pulls the cold air down and sets the stage for the Jan 24 snow showers.
The "High-End" vs "Low-End" Scenario
Meteorologists often talk about a "1 in 10 chance" of higher snowfall. Right now, the "expected" amount for the 24th is modest, but the high-end models suggest that if the moisture tracks just a few miles further north, we could be looking at a much more significant accumulation.
Bottom line? The "big snow" hasn't happened yet, but the window is opening. Stay ready for the last weekend of January. It’s probably going to be the one that finally lets you break out the sleds.
Next Steps for You:
- Verify your car's tire pressure today; these 12°F lows will cause them to drop significantly.
- Stock up on de-icer before the mid-week warm-up ends.
- Plan your travel around the Jan 24-25 window to avoid the inevitable highway mess.