If you’re watching the stock market right now, you’ve probably seen the headlines. There is a lot of noise. Everyone is talking about Jerome Powell and whether he’s staying or going. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mess. You might think it’s a simple date on a calendar, but because of how the Federal Reserve is structured—and the current political friction—the answer to when is powell term up depends entirely on which "term" you’re actually talking about.
Jay Powell is basically wearing two hats. He’s the Chair of the Federal Reserve, which is the big job everyone tracks. But he’s also a member of the Board of Governors. These have two different expiration dates.
The date everyone is watching: May 15, 2026
Mark your calendar for this one. This is the big deadline. When is powell term up as the Chair? That specifically happens on May 15, 2026. This is when his second four-year stint as the most powerful central banker in the world officially concludes.
It’s been a wild ride. He was first nominated by Donald Trump back in 2017, then reappointed by Joe Biden in 2022. Now, with Trump back in the White House for a second term, the relationship has turned... let's just say, "tense." Trump hasn't exactly been shy about his desire for lower interest rates. In late 2025, he even took to social media to say he wanted a Fed chairman who would lower rates if the market was doing well, flatly stating that anyone who disagrees with him won't get the job.
But here is the twist: even after May 15, Powell doesn't necessarily have to leave the building.
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The "Governor" loophole: January 31, 2028
This is the part that most people get wrong. Powell’s term as a member of the Board of Governors doesn't actually end until January 31, 2028.
Why does this matter?
In the past, Fed Chairs usually just quit the whole board when their time as Chair was up. It’s a courtesy thing. It lets the new person take over without the old boss breathing down their neck. But given the current legal battles—like the ongoing Department of Justice probe into his testimony about building renovations—and the public spats with the administration, there is a real chance Powell stays on as a regular Governor just to protect the Fed's independence.
He hasn’t said he’ll do this. But he hasn't said he won't, either.
When is Powell term up and who comes next?
The White House is already moving. They aren't waiting for May. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly been running a "shadow" search for months. They want a "chair-in-waiting" who can start influencing market expectations before Powell even packs his bags.
The shortlist is getting shorter. Here is who is actually in the running:
- Kevin Warsh: A former Fed governor and a favorite of the financial world. He’s seen as the front-runner because he knows the plumbing of the Fed but is also "Trump-friendly."
- Christopher Waller: He’s already a sitting Fed Governor. He’s been sounding a bit more "dovish" lately (meaning he’s open to rate cuts), which makes him very attractive to an administration that wants to juice the economy.
- Kevin Hassett: The head of the National Economic Council. He’s a staunch Trump ally. If the President wants someone who will definitely follow his lead, Hassett is the guy.
- Michelle Bowman: Another current Governor. She’s got the regulatory experience, but she’s often seen as a bit more of a "hawk" on inflation, which might clash with the White House’s goals.
There’s even talk of Rick Rieder from BlackRock. That would be a huge shift—bringing in a pure Wall Street guy rather than an academic or a career public servant.
The "For Cause" drama
Can Trump just fire him? This is the million-dollar question.
Legally, a President can only remove a Fed Governor "for cause." That’s a high bar. It usually means you have to prove they did something illegal or were grossly inefficient. You can't just fire them because they won't lower interest rates.
We’re seeing this play out in real-time with Governor Lisa Cook. Trump tried to remove her "effective immediately" in August 2025, but she sued and is still sitting in her office while the courts hash it out. The Fed has basically told the White House: "We’ll wait for the judge to decide."
This legal friction is exactly why when is powell term up is such a hot topic. If the administration can't fire him, they have to wait until May 2026.
Why the stock market is nervous
Investors hate uncertainty. Right now, the Fed is trying to balance a "soft landing"—keeping inflation low without crashing the economy into a recession. If a new Chair comes in and immediately slashes rates just to please the White House, there is a fear that inflation could come roaring back.
On the other hand, if Powell stays and keeps rates high, he risks a confrontation that could lead to a constitutional crisis over the Fed's independence.
It’s a game of chicken.
What happens on May 16, 2026?
Assuming things go "by the book," here is the likely sequence:
- Early 2026: Trump officially nominates a successor. This person will likely fill the Board seat currently held by Stephen Miran (whose term ends in January 2026).
- March/April 2026: The "Chair-in-waiting" sits in on FOMC meetings as a regular Governor, getting the lay of the land.
- May 15, 2026: Powell’s term as Chair expires.
- May 16, 2026: If the new Chair isn't confirmed yet, the Vice Chair (currently Philip Jefferson) would likely become the acting Chair.
Actionable steps for your portfolio
Don't panic, but do pay attention. The transition of power at the Fed is rarely this messy.
- Watch the "Shadow Chair": Once a nominee is named, listen to their speeches. If they sound significantly more aggressive about cutting rates than Powell, expect the dollar to weaken and gold or crypto to potentially catch a bid.
- Monitor the DOJ Probe: If the legal pressure on Powell intensifies, he might resign early to avoid a messy trial. An early exit would cause massive short-term volatility.
- Ladder your bonds: With the leadership in flux, interest rate predictability is at a ten-year low. Keeping your fixed-income investments in shorter durations allows you to pivot once the new Chair’s policy becomes clear.
Ultimately, the Fed is designed to be a "slow" institution. It’s built to resist sudden political whims. But 2026 is shaping up to be the biggest test of that design since the 1970s. Keep your eyes on that May deadline, but don't be surprised if the drama drags on well into 2028.