You’re sitting at a smoky table in downtown Vegas, or maybe you’re just slouching on your couch staring at a digital dealer on your phone. You’ve got a 16. The dealer has a 7 showing. Your heart does that weird little flutter because you know, statistically, you’re probably screwed. But you still have to make a choice. This is the moment where most casual players fall apart. Knowing when to hit on blackjack isn't just about memorizing a colorful chart you bought in a gift shop; it's about understanding the math of the "bust" and realizing that sometimes, the "correct" play feels like jumping off a cliff.
Blackjack is a game of thin margins. The house edge is tiny, often under 1% if you play perfectly, but that edge balloons the second you start playing on "gut feeling." Honestly, your gut is a terrible gambler. Your gut wants to stay on a 12 because it’s scared of catching a Jack and busting. Mathematics, however, doesn't care about your fear.
Why When to Hit on Blackjack Depends Entirely on the Dealer's Upcard
Most people focus way too much on their own total. They see a 14 and think, "I'm close to 21, I should stop." That's a mistake. You aren't playing against 21; you're playing against the dealer. The dealer is bound by rigid rules—they usually must hit until they reach 17. Because of this, their "upcard" (the card you can see) is the most important piece of information on the table.
If the dealer is showing a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, they are in a "weak" position. They are statistically more likely to bust. When you see a 5 or 6, you can breathe a little easier. However, if they show a 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, they are in a "strong" position. This changes everything. If you have a 16 against a dealer's 7, you basically have to hit. It feels bad. You'll probably bust. But if you stand, the dealer's 7 makes a 17 or better so often that standing is actually the "more" losing play.
The Terrifying Reality of the Hard 12
Let's talk about the most hated hand in the game: the hard 12. You have a 10 and a 2, or maybe an 8 and a 4. You’re looking at it, and you just know a face card is coming. If the dealer has a 2 or a 3, basic strategy says you hit.
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Wait, what?
Yeah. Even though the dealer is relatively weak with a 2 or 3, they aren't that weak. A 2 or 3 doesn't result in a dealer bust nearly as often as a 5 or 6 does. If you stand on that 12, you're hoping the dealer busts, but against a 2, they only bust about 35% of the time. You have to improve your hand. Hit the 12. If you bust, you bust. At least you played the math.
Soft Hands: The "Free" Hits You’re Missing
A "soft" hand is any hand containing an Ace where the Ace can be counted as 11 without going over 21. These are the best hands for aggressive play because you literally cannot bust on the next card. If you have a Soft 17 (Ace-6), you should always hit.
I see people stand on Soft 17 all the time. They think, "Hey, 17 is a decent total."
It’s not.
17 is a losing hand in blackjack. You can't beat a dealer's 18, 19, 20, or 21. By hitting a Soft 17, you have a chance to improve to a 18, 19, 20, or 21, and if you draw a 10-value card, you’re still at 17 (the Ace just flips to a 1). You get a free shot at a better total. Never stand on Soft 17. In many cases, you should actually be doubling down on it if the dealer is weak, but at the very least, you must hit.
When to Hit on Blackjack if You’re Holding a Soft 18
Soft 18 (Ace-7) is a bit more nuanced. Most of the time, you'll stand. But if the dealer is showing a 9, 10, or Ace, you actually hit.
Does that sound crazy?
Maybe. But again, a 18 isn't going to win against a dealer's 9 or 10 very often. You are an underdog. By hitting, you’re trying to claw back a few percentage points of probability. According to Peter Griffin’s The Theory of Blackjack—a book that basically serves as the Bible for card counters—these marginal gains are exactly how you keep your bankroll alive over several hours of play.
The Strategy Behind "Stiff" Hands
A "stiff" hand is any total from 12 to 16. These are the hands that lose people the most money because they are "bustable."
- Hit on 12 if the dealer has a 2 or 3.
- Hit on 12-16 if the dealer has a 7 through Ace.
- Stand on 12-16 if the dealer has a 4, 5, or 6.
There is a slight variation with 12 against a dealer 2 or 3, as mentioned before, but generally, the 4, 5, and 6 are the "Dealer Bust Zone." When the dealer shows a 6, they will bust about 42% of the time. You don't need to risk your own hand by hitting; you just need to stay on the table and wait for them to fly off the handle.
The 16 vs. 10 Dilemma
This is the single most common "misplay" in casinos. You have 16, dealer has a 10. The "correct" play is to hit. However, many tables now offer "Surrender." If your table allows it, surrendering a 16 against a 10 is actually your best move. You give up half your bet and walk away.
If surrender isn't an option? Hit.
Yes, you’ll probably bust. But mathematically, you win more (or lose less) over 1,000 hands by hitting than by standing. Standing on 16 against a 10 is essentially begging for mercy from a dealer who has none.
Surprising Exceptions and Common Myths
We’ve all heard the guy at the end of the table shouting that you "took the dealer's bust card."
This is total nonsense.
The order of the cards in the deck is random. You hitting or standing has zero statistical impact on whether the dealer will bust in the long run. Don't let social pressure at the table stop you from hitting when the math says to. If you have a 12 against a 3 and the "table captain" tells you to stay, ignore him. He’s not paying your losses.
Is there a difference in "When to Hit" between Single Deck and Multi-Deck?
Actually, yes. In a single-deck game, the removal of just one or two cards changes the remaining probabilities significantly. For example, if you have a 12 (made of two 6s), you are slightly more likely to hit and stay safe because two of the 6s are already out of the deck. Most modern casinos use 6-deck or 8-deck shoes specifically to neutralize this advantage. If you're playing a multi-deck game, stick to the standard basic strategy.
Modern Variations: 6:3 vs 3:2
Before you even worry about hitting or standing, look at the payout on the table. If the sign says "Blackjack pays 6:5," get up and leave. You’re being robbed. A 6:5 payout increases the house edge by about 1.4%, making your "perfect" hitting strategy almost irrelevant. Always look for "Blackjack pays 3:2."
In a 3:2 game, the strategy for when to hit on blackjack actually matters. In a 6:5 game, the math is so tilted against you that you're basically just paying for the seat.
Practical Steps for Your Next Session
If you want to actually use this, don't try to memorize every single permutation at once. Start with the "Stiff Hands" vs "Dealer Weakness" rule.
- Print a Basic Strategy Card. Seriously. Most casinos let you use them at the table as long as you don't slow down the game. It’s not cheating; it’s just being smart.
- Practice with a Free App. Download a blackjack trainer. These apps will buzz or alert you when you make a "wrong" move (like standing on a Soft 17).
- Watch the Dealer's 7. Treat the 7 like it's a face card. People underestimate the 7. If the dealer has a 7 and you have 16, you hit. Period.
- Ignore the "Flow" of the Cards. Don't fall for the Gambler's Fallacy. Just because the dealer has made five hands in a row doesn't mean they are "due" to bust. The cards don't have a memory.
- Manage Your Bankroll. Even perfect play won't save you from a bad run. Decide how much you're willing to lose before you sit down, and when that's gone, walk away.
Blackjack is a game of skill masked as a game of luck. By knowing exactly when to hit on blackjack, you transition from being a "gambler" to being a "player." There's a big difference between the two. One relies on hope; the other relies on the law of large numbers. Stick to the math, stay calm when the 10-ball hits your 12, and remember that the dealer is just as bound by the rules as you are by the percentages.
Your Hitting Cheat Sheet
- Hit on Hard 11 or less (unless you're doubling).
- Hit on Hard 12 through 16 if dealer shows 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace.
- Hit on Soft 17 (Ace-6) always.
- Hit on Soft 18 (Ace-7) if dealer shows 9, 10, or Ace.
- Hit on 12 if dealer shows 2 or 3.
Stick to these rules, and you'll be playing better than 90% of the people in the casino. Whether the cards fall your way tonight is up to the deck, but at least you won't be giving the house any extra money for free.