Bitcoin is currently hovering around $96,000, and honestly, the air in the room feels thin. Just yesterday, January 14, 2026, we saw it test $97,000 before pulling back slightly. People are shouting about the "magic 100k" mark again. You've heard this story before, right? Every time the price creeps toward a psychological milestone, the "when will bitcoin crash" searches start trending. It's like a collective twitch.
We’re in a weird spot.
In late 2025, we saw a massive correction from an all-time high of $126,000. That hurt. It wasn't just a "dip"—it was a 30% wipeout that left a lot of folks holding bags at the top. Now, as the market tries to claw back, the tension between the "to the moon" crowd and the "it's going to zero" skeptics is higher than I’ve seen it in years.
The Mathematical Gravity of $74,000
If you look at the technicals, things aren't as rosy as the $97,000 price tag suggests. Many analysts, including those tracking the 200-day Moving Average (which is currently sitting way up at $106,120), think we’re still technically in a bearish trend.
Basically, until Bitcoin breaks and stays above that $106k level, we are essentially just bouncing around in a giant waiting room.
There’s a very real "bearish roadmap" floating around the trading desks right now. It suggests that after this little January rally to the $98k–$99k range, we might see a "hard crash" back down to $77,000 or even $74,000. Why that specific number? Because $74,000 was the support level back in April 2025. Markets have a long memory. They love to revisit old wounds before they decide to move on.
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Why the Next Crash Might Be "Mechanical"
Back in the day—think 2013 or 2017—crashes happened because of a single event. A Mt. Gox hack. A China ban. A random Elon Musk tweet about environmental concerns.
Today, the risks are different. They're more "mechanical."
Institutional money has changed the game. We have spot ETFs now, and while they bring in billions, they also create a "passive fund" trap. For example, the US Senate is currently debating the CLARITY Act. This isn't just another boring bill; it’s designed to finally decide which assets are commodities and which are securities. If the ruling goes sideways, or if firms like Strategy Inc. get excluded from major indices, we could see billions in passive outflows in a matter of hours.
Then there’s the "Elliott Wave" theory that’s scaring the pants off some veteran traders. Jon Glover, a well-known analyst, recently argued that Bitcoin completed its "five-wave move" at the $126k peak. If he’s right, we aren’t just looking at a dip—we’re looking at a structural bear market that could last until late 2026.
Real-World Red Flags to Watch
If you want to know when will bitcoin crash, stop looking at the price chart for five minutes and look at these three things instead:
- The Gold Divergence: In late 2025, gold started hitting record highs while Bitcoin was tanking. Usually, they move together as "risk-off" assets. When they split, it means investors are choosing the "old school" safety of gold over the "new school" volatility of crypto. Gold is currently above $4,500. If it continues to climb while BTC stays stagnant, watch out.
- The Powell Factor: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation, which has injected a massive dose of political uncertainty into the markets. While Bitcoin sometimes acts as a hedge against chaos, systemic uncertainty often leads institutions to dump "risk assets" first to cover their margins elsewhere.
- The "Boredom" Threshold: Sometimes the crash isn't a bang; it’s a whimper. If Bitcoin stays stuck between $88,000 and $95,000 for three or four months, retail investors get bored. They leave. Liquidity dries up. And when liquidity is thin, it only takes one medium-sized "whale" selling to send the price off a cliff.
Expert Divergence: $75k vs $225k
The range of predictions for 2026 is, frankly, hilarious.
You’ve got Carol Alexander from the University of Sussex predicting a "high-volatility range" between $75,000 and $150,000. She thinks the "center of gravity" is around $110,000. On the flip side, you have the perma-bulls at Nexo or Bit Mining suggesting we could still hit $225,000 if the Fed does a "dovish pivot" and starts cutting rates aggressively.
Who's right? Honestly, probably nobody.
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The market doesn't care about our price targets. It cares about liquidity. Right now, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) just came in at 3.0%, which was higher than the 2.7% analysts expected. This means inflation is sticky. If inflation stays high, the Fed won't cut rates. If they don't cut rates, the "easy money" that fuels Bitcoin rallies stays locked up in savings accounts and bonds.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?
For years, everyone lived by the "Halving Cycle." The reward for mining Bitcoin drops every four years, supply gets tight, and the price goes up.
But 2025 broke that narrative for a lot of people.
We had the ETFs, we had the political tailwinds, and yet the market still felt... heavy. Some experts are now saying we've entered a "post-cycle" era. In this new world, Bitcoin acts more like a tech stock or a commodity like silver. It’s more stable, sure, but it’s also subject to the same boring economic gravity that affects everything else.
Survival Steps for the Next Correction
You shouldn't be asking "if" it will crash, but "what do I do when it does."
First, check your leverage. If you are trading with borrowed money, a 10% flash crash—which is a Tuesday in crypto—will liquidate your entire position. Don't be that person.
Second, watch the $88,000 support level. If we break below that, the next stop is likely $82,000, and then the $74,000 floor. If you're looking to buy the dip, those are the zones where the "smart money" is usually waiting with their orders.
Lastly, pay attention to the CLARITY Act updates in the Senate. Regulatory news moves the needle faster than any technical chart ever will.
Bitcoin isn't going to zero. It’s too integrated into the financial system for that now. But it can absolutely go to $70,000 and stay there long enough to make you regret your life choices. Stay skeptical, keep your eyes on the macro data, and remember that in crypto, the majority is usually wrong at the exact moment they feel the most confident.
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Actionable Insights:
- Monitor the 200-day MA: If Bitcoin remains below $106,120, the macro-trend is still bearish despite short-term rallies.
- Watch the PPI and CPI data: Higher-than-expected inflation reports are a direct sell signal for Bitcoin in the current high-rate environment.
- Set "Stink Bids": If you are looking to accumulate, place buy orders in the $74,000 - $77,000 range to catch potential flash-crash liquidations.
- Follow the CLARITY Act: Track the Senate's progress on crypto regulation; any sign of "security" classification for major altcoins will likely drag Bitcoin down with them.