Honestly, if you’ve lived in the Mid-South for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up to a forecast promising a "Winter Wonderland" and by noon you’re standing in a puddle of lukewarm rain. Or, even better, the "trace of flurries" turns into a city-paralyzing sheet of ice that shuts down I-240 for three days.
So, when will it snow in Memphis this year?
Right now, the data is pointing toward some very specific windows. If you’re looking at your calendar for 2026, keep your eyes on the week of January 25th. According to the latest National Weather Service data, we are currently sitting in a pattern of "polar air reinforcement." Basically, a series of cold fronts are dropping down, and while the air is bone-dry right now, that’s about to change.
The Immediate 2026 Forecast
If you’re checking the porch thermometer today, Sunday, January 18, it’s a crisp 26°F outside with a wind chill making it feel like 18°F. Bracing, sure, but dry.
The real shift happens mid-week. Tuesday night, January 20th, has a 25% chance of a rain and snow mix as a system moves in from the south. But the "big" one—well, "big" by Memphis standards—is showing up on the 7-day outlook.
Sunday night, January 25th, currently has a 90% chance of snow.
That is a massive percentage for this region. Usually, we're lucky to see a 20% "maybe" that disappears the moment the sun comes up. Following that, Monday, January 26th, maintains a 45% chance of snow during the day with a high temperature struggling to get past 33°F.
Why Memphis Snow is So Weird
Most people think it doesn't snow here because we're "The South." That's only half the story.
The real culprit is the "Battle Zone" effect. Memphis sits right where the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico slams into the freezing Arctic air coming down from Canada. If the cold air wins by just two degrees, we get a dusting. If the warm air wins by two degrees, we get a 38-degree rain that just makes everyone grumpy.
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Historical records from the NWS show that our "sweet spot" for measurable snow is usually between mid-January and mid-February.
- Earliest Snow on Record: November 2, 1951 (0.2 inches).
- The Big One: March 1892, where we got a staggering 18 inches in a single storm.
- Average Annual Snowfall: Usually around 2.7 to 3.8 inches, depending on which 30-year average you're looking at.
The La Niña Factor
This 2025-2026 winter season is being driven by a weak La Niña. In a typical La Niña year, the southern U.S. tends to be warmer and drier. However, "weak" is the operative word here.
When La Niña is weak, the jet stream gets "wavy." It allows those Arctic blasts to dip further south than they normally would. This is exactly why we're seeing these projected low temperatures of 19°F and 20°F toward the end of January.
It’s a high-variance season. You might get three weeks of 60-degree weather followed by a 48-hour window where the city looks like the set of The Revenant.
Surviving the "Snow" (Or lack thereof)
If you’re new to town, here’s the reality: Memphis doesn't have a massive fleet of snowplows. We have some, sure, but the strategy is mostly "wait for it to melt."
Since the ground temperature in Tennessee often stays relatively warm until a deep freeze sets in, that first layer of snow almost always melts and refreezes into black ice. That is the real danger.
Actionable Steps for the January 25th Window:
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- Drip the Faucets: When we hit that projected 19°F low on Sunday night, your pipes are at risk. Open the cabinets under your sinks to let the house heat reach the plumbing.
- The Bread and Milk Run: It's a meme for a reason. If the 90% snow chance holds for Jan 25th, Kroger will be a madhouse by Friday. Get your staples early.
- Check the "Feels Like": Don't just look at the 36°F high for today. With north winds at 9 mph, the "apparent temperature" is much lower. Dress in layers if you're heading to Overton Park or the Riverfront.
- Watch the Tuesday Mix: Even though the chance is only 25% for Jan 20th, a rain/snow mix at night is the perfect recipe for a slick Wednesday morning commute.
Basically, enjoy the sun today and tomorrow. The "Cloudy" Monday we have coming up is just the precursor to a much more active, and potentially white, end of the month. Keep your ice scrapers handy—you're actually going to need them this time.