Honestly, it feels like we’ve all developed a collective case of amnesia when it comes to tracking virus surges. You probably haven't checked a dashboard in months. But as of mid-January 2026, the question of where is covid on the rise isn't just a matter of curiosity—it's actually showing up in the numbers again. The current landscape is weirdly fragmented. While some parts of the country are seeing levels that look like a typical winter cold season, other regions are getting hammered by a combination of new variants and a late-winter peak.
It’s not 2020. It's not even 2024. The data is quieter now because we aren't testing in the kitchen with a plastic swab nearly as often as we used to. But the wastewater doesn't lie.
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The 2026 Map: Where Is Covid On The Rise Right Now?
If you look at the latest CDC data and wastewater surveillance from partners like Biobot and Verily, the Midwest is currently the standout "hotspot." It's a bit of a dramatic shift. While the Northeast and South saw their traditional holiday bumps in late December 2025, those regions are actually starting to plateau or even dip. Meanwhile, states in the Midwest are seeing virus concentrations in their sewers climb steadily as we move through January.
It's not just the U.S., though. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) is tracking some pretty specific upticks. Temperate South America, parts of Eastern Europe, and East Asia are reporting elevated activity. It’s that classic "ping-pong" effect where the virus finds pockets of susceptible people who haven't been exposed to the latest dominant strain.
Current reports from the UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show a stabilized but "baseline" level of activity, but here’s the kicker: hospital admissions are starting to creep up again. As of January 15, 2026, UK hospital settings identified over 500 cases in a single week. It sounds small compared to the millions of cases we used to see, but for a healthcare system already dealing with a medium-level flu season, it's enough to cause some friction.
The Midwest Surge and the "West Coast Lag"
We’re seeing a very specific pattern this month.
- The Midwest Lead: Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan have reported "high" wastewater levels according to recent Jan 12 updates.
- The Western Rise: While the West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington) started the year at "very low" levels, they are currently transitioning into the "low to moderate" category.
- The Southern Plateau: Florida and Louisiana, which often lead the summer waves, are currently seeing a cooling-off period, though hospitalizations in Louisiana remain slightly higher than the national average.
The reality is that "on the rise" is a moving target. In many ways, the virus has settled into a predictable two-peak cycle: a summer wave (usually July-September) and a winter wave (December-February). We are firmly in the middle of that second peak.
Why the "Nimbus" Variant (NB.1.8.1) Changes the Math
You’ve probably heard some chatter about "Nimbus." That’s the nickname floating around for the NB.1.8.1 variant. It’s a sub-lineage of Omicron, and it’s currently the main reason why people are asking where is covid on the rise.
Dr. Andrew Pekosz from Johns Hopkins has been monitoring these global shifts, and the consensus is that NB.1.8.1 isn't necessarily "deadlier," but it’s incredibly "sticky." It has a shorter incubation period than the stuff we saw last year. People are getting symptomatic within 48 to 72 hours of exposure.
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The symptoms haven't fundamentally changed, but they are hitting in a specific order now. Most people report a "razor-blade" sore throat first, followed by intense congestion. It’s easily mistaken for the "Subclade K" flu strain that's also circulating. If you’re feeling wiped out but your flu test is negative, there’s a high probability it’s the Nimbus variant.
Testing and Immunity: The 2026 Gap
Here is the part most people get wrong. We are currently facing a massive "immunity gap." According to the CDC's Weekly COVID-19 Vaccination Dashboard, only about 17% of U.S. adults are up to date with the 2025-2026 vaccine formula as of early January.
That means nearly 80% of the population is relying on "old" immunity from 2024 or earlier infections. The NB.1.8.1 variant is specifically evolved to sidestep those older antibodies. This is why we’re seeing a rise in cases among people who thought they were "done" with COVID.
Why the Data Feels "Off"
We have to talk about the reporting lag. Since March 2025, many major public health departments—like LA County—have actually retired their daily dashboards. They’ve moved to "RESPWatch" or integrated respiratory tracking. This makes it harder for the average person to see a spike until it’s already halfway over.
If you want the real story of where is covid on the rise, you have to look at the Rt (Effective Reproduction Number). In about 25 states right now, the Rt is above 1.0, which is the scientific way of saying the epidemic is growing rather than shrinking.
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Practical Steps for the Current Surge
So, what do you actually do with this info? It's not about panicking; it's about being smart during a predictable seasonal peak.
- Check the Sewer, Not the News: Websites like Covid Act Now or the CDC Wastewater Tracker are your best bets. If the line is pointing up in your county, maybe rethink that packed indoor concert for a week or two.
- The 48-Hour Rule: Because the Nimbus variant has a shorter incubation period, if you were exposed on Friday, you’ll likely know by Sunday. Don't wait five days to test like we did in 2021.
- Ventilation over Everything: Honestly, a high-quality HEPA filter or even just cracking a window during a dinner party does more to stop a surge in your house than almost anything else.
- Upgrade Your Mask: If you’re in a high-rise area like the Midwest right now, those old cloth masks are basically face-decor. Stick to an N95 or KN95 if you're in a crowded airport or on a train.
The current rise in COVID-19 cases is a reminder that the virus is now a permanent fixture of our winter "respiratory soup," alongside the flu and RSV. By keeping an eye on wastewater trends in your specific zip code and recognizing that immunity from two years ago doesn't count for much today, you can navigate the 2026 peaks without much drama.
Stay updated on your local wastewater levels through the CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) and ensure you have a few updated rapid tests on hand, as the newer variants still trigger standard antigen tests, even if they take an extra day to show a solid line.