Honestly, if you’re looking for a simple answer to which presidential candidate is in the lead, you’re probably looking at the wrong calendar. We are currently in January 2026. President Donald Trump is just beginning the second year of his second term. There isn't an active presidential race in the United States right now because the next one isn't until 2028.
But that hasn't stopped the rumor mill. People are already obsessed with who might take over the Oval Office next.
If you’re seeing headlines about a "presidential lead," they are likely referring to one of two things: the massive 2026 midterm elections that will decide who controls Congress, or the early, speculative "shadow primary" for 2028. There’s also a high-stakes presidential election happening right now in Portugal, which has been confusing a lot of folks searching for US news.
The 2026 Midterm Reality Check
The real "lead" everyone is fighting for right now is for the House and Senate. It’s basically a proxy war for the presidency. Right now, Democrats are actually holding a surprising 4.5-point edge in the generic ballot for the House of Representatives, according to recent Brookings data.
This is a big deal. Why? Because usually, the party in power gets crushed in the midterms.
Trump’s approval rating has been hovering around 40%, with a recent Gallup poll even dipping to 36% in December. That’s low. It's roughly where he was at this point in his first term. People are stressed about the economy and inflation. Even though the administration says things are great, 72% of voters in recent surveys rate the economy as "fair" or "poor."
Key Players Currently Leading in 2026 Races:
- Texas Senate: State Rep. James Talarico is currently leading U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 9 points (47% to 38%) in the Democratic primary. On the GOP side, Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are neck-and-neck at 27% and 26%.
- California Governor: This is a mess. Republican Chad Bianco, Republican Steve Hilton, and Democrat Eric Swalwell are all tied up at around 12-13%.
- Wisconsin: Democrats are feeling a "trifecta" coming on, hoping to take the Governor's mansion and the legislature.
Who is the Leading Presidential Candidate for 2028?
Since Trump can’t run again due to the 22nd Amendment, the 2028 race is already "kinda" starting. It’s early. Like, "don't put your mortgage on it" early. But the polls are already being taken.
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The Republican Side
Vice President J.D. Vance is the clear frontrunner for the GOP. He’s basically the heir apparent. According to an Emerson College survey from late 2025, Vance leads the hypothetical 2028 Republican primary with 52% support.
Who else is in the mix?
- Marco Rubio: 11%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 10%
- Ron DeSantis: 6%
Rubio is currently serving as Secretary of State, which gives him a huge platform, but Vance has the MAGA base locked down for now.
The Democratic Side
This side is way more fractured. There is no "incumbent" feel here. Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is currently leading the pack with about 36% support.
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The rest of the field looks like this:
- Pete Buttigieg: 16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%
- Kamala Harris: 9%
It’s interesting to see Harris trailing Newsom by so much. A lot of folks seem to want a fresh start after the 2024 loss. Newsom has been incredibly active on the national stage, basically acting as the "Opposition Leader" from Sacramento.
The "Other" Presidential Election
If you’re seeing news today, January 18, 2026, about people actually voting, it's Portugal. They are holding their presidential election right now.
Luis Marques Mendes from the center-right is facing off against Antonio Jose Seguro from the center-left. There’s also a populist candidate, André Ventura, who is making a lot of noise. It’s a big deal for Europe, but it has zero impact on who sits in the White House.
Why the Polls are Shifting So Fast
The reason the "lead" is so hard to pin down is the rise of the Independent voter. Gallup recently found that a record-high 45% of Americans now identify as Independent.
They don't like either party.
Trump’s recent tariffs have been a double-edged sword. While his base loves the "America First" rhetoric, moderate Independents are blaming the resulting price hikes for their shrinking bank accounts. Only 38% of people currently believe Trump cares about "people like you." That’s a dangerous number for any party trying to hold onto Congress in the midterms.
How to Track Who’s Actually Winning
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just look at national polls. They're mostly noise this far out. Instead, watch these indicators:
- Special Election Results: These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If Democrats start winning deep-red seats in special elections this spring, the GOP is in trouble.
- Fundraising Totals: Keep an eye on the FEC filings for 2026. For example, Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Cory Booker in New Jersey are already raising massive amounts for their Senate defenses.
- The Generic Ballot: This is the most accurate way to see which way the wind is blowing for the 2026 midterms. If the "Generic Democrat" stays 4-5 points ahead of the "Generic Republican," we could see a power shift in D.C.
Honestly, the "lead" right now belongs to the frustrated voter. Neither party has a firm grip on the American psyche.
To get the most accurate picture, stop looking at "Who is winning the Presidency" and start looking at "Who is winning the Midterms." That’s where the real power struggle is happening. You should check the Cook Political Report or Emerson Polling every few weeks; they’re the gold standard for this stuff. Also, keep an eye on the special elections in Florida and Florida—they're filling the seats vacated by Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, and those results will tell us everything we need to know about the 2026 mood.