Talking about gun violence in America is a lot like trying to map a storm that never actually stops moving. You think you have the data pinned down, and then a new report drops and flips the script. Honestly, if you're asking which state has the most shootings, the answer depends entirely on how you’re counting. Are we talking about the raw number of people hit by bullets? Or are we talking about the "danger factor"—the per capita rate that tells you your actual statistical risk?
It’s messy.
Basically, if you look at the raw totals for 2025, the "winners" are exactly who you’d expect: the giants. Texas and California consistently trade blows for the top spot because, well, they have the most people. But if you look at the rate of gun deaths per 100,000 residents, the map looks completely different. Suddenly, the "safest" looking states on a raw-number map become the most volatile.
The Raw Numbers: Why California and Texas Always Lead
You’ve probably seen the headlines. In 2025, Texas recorded over 4,500 firearm deaths. California wasn't far behind with more than 3,200. Florida and Illinois usually round out that top four. It makes sense. You can't have a high volume of incidents without a high volume of people.
But here’s the kicker: California actually has one of the lowest gun death rates in the country (around 7.1 to 8.0 per 100,000). So, while the total number of shootings is high, your individual risk of being involved in one is statistically much lower than in many other states.
Texas is a different beast. With a firearm mortality rate hovering around 15 per 100,000, it sits right in the middle of the pack nationally, even though its total body count is the highest. It’s a paradox that trips up a lot of people when they're looking at which state has the most shootings.
The Per Capita Reality: The States You Aren't Tracking
If we’re being real about risk, we have to look at the per capita data. This is where the South and the Mountain West start to dominate the conversation. According to the most recent CDC and Gun Violence Archive data for late 2025 and early 2026, Mississippi holds the grim title of the highest gun death rate in the nation.
Mississippi’s rate is often as high as 28.5 to 29.6 per 100,000 people. That is nearly eight times higher than a state like Massachusetts or Hawaii.
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Here are the states that consistently rank at the top for firearm mortality rates:
- Mississippi (The highest, often double the national average)
- Louisiana (Close second, driven heavily by urban violence in New Orleans)
- New Mexico (A massive spike in recent years, often hitting 27+)
- Alabama (Consistently in the top five)
- Wyoming and Alaska (High rates, though these are driven significantly by suicides rather than homicides)
It's a weird distinction, right? When we say "shootings," most people visualize a crime scene or a mass shooting event. But in places like Wyoming or Montana, the "most shootings" are often tragic, solitary events in rural homes. In Mississippi or Louisiana, it’s more often interpersonal violence.
The Mass Shooting Outliers
Mass shootings—defined by the Gun Violence Archive as incidents where four or more people are shot, excluding the shooter—don't actually follow the same rules as general gun violence. In 2025, there were 408 mass shootings across the U.S., which was actually a significant drop from previous years.
Surprisingly, these are more "democratized" across the states. While California had a few high-profile incidents (like the Stockton birthday party shooting in late 2025), states like Illinois and Pennsylvania often see more mass shooting events due to concentrated gang-related or retaliatory violence in cities like Chicago and Philadelphia.
Why 2025 Was Actually... Better?
It feels wrong to use the word "better" when 38,762 people died from guns in 2025. But, strictly speaking from a data perspective, it was a year of massive decline.
The Trace and the Gun Violence Archive both reported that shooting deaths (excluding suicides) plummeted by about 14% compared to 2024. In fact, 2025 saw the lowest number of shooting deaths since 2015.
Why? There’s no single answer. Some experts point to the 15 states that now have dedicated Offices of Violence Prevention. Others credit the cooling of the "pandemic spike" that sent crime rates through the roof between 2020 and 2022.
The Urban-Rural Divide
One of the biggest misconceptions about which state has the most shootings is that it’s purely a "city problem."
Take California. If you live in San Francisco, your risk is relatively low. But if you move to the rural northern counties of California, the gun death rate triples. Why? Suicide. In rural America, firearms are the primary method of suicide, and those numbers are actually increasing even as homicides fall.
In 2025, while homicides dropped, firearm suicides hit an all-time record, with over 28,000 cases. This creates a statistical "noise" where states like Wyoming look more violent than they actually feel to a resident walking down the street.
Getting Specific: The "Danger" Rankings
If you’re looking for a definitive answer on where the most shootings occur right now, you have to split the data by "type."
1. Most Total Homicides (Raw Volume)
- Texas
- California
- Illinois
- Florida
2. Highest Risk of Gun Death (Per Capita)
- Mississippi
- Louisiana
- New Mexico
- Alabama
3. Highest School Shooting Incident Counts (2025)
- California (22 incidents)
- Texas (21 incidents)
- Tennessee (14 incidents)
That Tennessee number is interesting because it’s a much smaller state than the other two, yet it ranks third for school-related gunfire. It shows that geographic size isn't everything.
What This Means for You
So, what do we do with this? If you’re looking at these numbers to decide where to live or how to vote, the "rate" is always more important than the "total."
If you live in New York, you might feel like you’re in a high-crime area because of the constant media cycle. But New York actually has one of the lowest gun death rates in the country (4.4 per 100,000). You are statistically much safer in New York City than you are in a mid-sized city like Little Rock, Arkansas, or Birmingham, Alabama.
Actionable Takeaways for Safety and Advocacy
- Look at local, not just state, data. Gun violence is often hyper-local. A single neighborhood in Chicago might account for a massive percentage of a state's total shootings.
- Differentiate between suicide and homicide. If you are concerned about community safety, look at "gun homicide rates." If you are concerned about public health and mental health resources, look at "firearm suicide rates." They require completely different solutions.
- Support "Layered Security." 2025 data showed that states with diverse prevention methods—ranging from community violence interrupters to AI-powered detection in public spaces—saw the sharpest declines in violence.
- Check the "Gun Law Strength" vs. "Violence Rate." There is a strong correlation, but it's not perfect. Everytown for Gun Safety ranks California #1 for law strength, and its rate is indeed low (7.1). Meanwhile, Mississippi has some of the weakest laws and the highest rate (29.6).
The numbers for early 2026 suggest the downward trend is continuing, but the disparity between the safest states (like Massachusetts) and the most dangerous (like Mississippi) remains a massive, unaddressed gap in American life.
To stay informed, use tools like the Gun Violence Archive for real-time incident tracking or the CDC Wonder database for official, age-adjusted mortality rates. These are the gold standards for cutting through the political noise and seeing what’s actually happening on the ground.