If you were looking for Saúl "Canelo" Álvarez to satisfy his traditional Cinco de Mayo itch in 2026, you're going to be disappointed. Honestly, it’s a bit of a weird time to be a Canelo fan. For years, the schedule was set in stone: May and September, like clockwork. But the script got flipped. After a grueling 2025 that saw him drop a unanimous decision to Terence "Bud" Crawford in September, the king of the super middleweights didn't just lose his undisputed crown—he lost his momentum.
Then came the surgery.
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In October 2025, Canelo went under the knife for a lingering elbow injury. It wasn't just a minor "clean-up" job either. Reports from major outlets like CBS Sports and Ring Magazine confirmed that he’s been sidelined for months, recently only just getting back to throwing light punches on a rooftop in Guadalajara. Because of that recovery timeline, the answer to who is Canelo fighting next isn't as simple as a name on a poster. It’s a waiting game that points directly toward September 2026.
The September Return: Why May is Off the Table
Look, Canelo is 35. That’s not "old" in the real world, but in boxing years—especially for a guy who turned pro at 15—it’s the twilight. His trainer, Eddy Reynoso, basically threw cold water on any hopes of a spring return. The focus is 100% on a massive Mexican Independence Day weekend comeback.
The big question, though, is who stands across from him. For a while, the boxing world was convinced we were getting Canelo vs. Crawford 2. It made sense, right? Revenge for the Mexican icon, another massive payday for Bud. But then Crawford threw a curveball and announced his retirement in late 2025. Just like that, the biggest money fight in the sport evaporated.
So, where does that leave us? Here’s the reality of the 168-pound landscape right now:
- The Saudi Factor: Canelo still has two fights left on his deal with Turki Alalshikh and Riyadh Season. These fights aren't happening in a vacuum; they’re high-stakes, big-money events.
- The Mandatory Menace: Osleys Iglesias is being called the "boogeyman" of the division. The IBF has already ordered a fight between him and Canelo.
- The British Wildcards: There is serious talk about Canelo facing the winner of the Chris Eubank Jr. vs. Conor Benn fight, which is set for April 2026. Turki Alalshikh himself told Sky Sports that they are working to pit the winner of that clash against Canelo.
The David Benavidez Sidenote (Or Lack Thereof)
It’s the fight everyone wants, and yet, it feels further away than ever. David Benavidez, tired of waiting for the phone to ring, has moved up. He’s currently eyeing a May 2026 showdown with Gilberto "Zurdo" Ramirez at cruiserweight.
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Benavidez has been pretty vocal lately about not wanting to "wait on a fight." He’s chasing titles at 175 and 200 pounds now. While Canelo did tease in late 2025 that he "never says no to anything," the logistics for 2026 just don't align for this to be the immediate "next" fight. If it happens, it’s a late-year or 2027 dream.
Christian Mbilli: The Audition That Stuck
Don't overlook Christian Mbilli. The guy fought to a spectacular split draw against Lester Martinez on the Canelo-Crawford undercard. He’s been calling Canelo "old" and "dangerous" in the same breath, basically begging for the chance to provide the high-pressure "war" that fans love. Since he’s already been part of the Riyadh Season ecosystem, he’s a very realistic candidate for that September slot.
What's Actually Likely?
If I’m placing a bet, the path of least resistance—and highest commercial appeal for the Saudi partners—leads to the UK. A fight against Chris Eubank Jr. (assuming he wins in April) is the kind of global event that sells out stadiums without requiring Canelo to jump into the ring with a young, terrifying destroyer like Iglesias or Mbilli immediately after elbow surgery.
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Canelo's stock took a hit after the Crawford loss. He hasn't scored a knockout since he stopped Caleb Plant back in 2021. He needs a win that looks good on highlights. He needs to prove the "power" is still there.
The Bottom Line on Canelo's Next Opponent
The "who" is still a rotating door of three specific names:
- Winner of Eubank Jr. vs. Benn: The frontrunner for a massive international event.
- Osleys Iglesias: The mandatory hurdle he might eventually have to jump (or vacate again).
- Christian Mbilli: The "spectacular war" option if the British deal falls through.
Saúl Álvarez is currently in the "recovery and refinement" stage. He’s back in the gym, but the days of him fighting three times a year are long gone.
If you're looking to follow the progress of this comeback, keep a close eye on the results of the Eubank-Benn fight in April. That result will likely dictate the direction of the press conference we’ll all be watching in June or July. For now, the best thing to do is watch the training footage coming out of Guadalajara—if the hand speed is back, the "Mexican Monster" and everyone else in the division better start taking notes.
Next Steps for Boxing Fans:
Stay updated on the medical clearance status of Canelo's elbow through official Ring Magazine reports, as any setback in training will push the September return into late October or November. Monitor the April 26 result of Eubank Jr. vs. Benn, as Turki Alalshikh has explicitly linked the winner of that bout to Canelo's 2026 schedule.