The smoke hasn’t turned white yet, but the whispers in the hallways of the Apostolic Palace are getting louder. Honestly, trying to guess the next pope is a bit like betting on a horse race where the horses can talk and the track is made of 2,000 years of tradition. There’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves as a cardinal." Basically, if everyone thinks you're going to win, you probably won't.
But things feel different in 2026. The Church is at a weird crossroads. You've got the legacy of Pope Francis—his focus on the "peripheries" and the poor—clashing with a growing desire for stability and maybe a little less "chaos," as some traditionalists would put it. People are looking for a bridge-builder. Or maybe a firebrand. It depends on which cardinal you ask over espresso.
The Heavy Hitters: Who Is in the Running for the Next Pope Right Now?
If you're looking for the names that keep popping up in the "papabile" (pope-able) lists, you have to start with the guys who already hold the keys to the engine room.
The Diplomat: Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the Vatican's Secretary of State. Think of him as the Prime Minister. He’s 71, which is kinda the "Goldilocks zone" for a pope—not too young to reign for thirty years, but not so old he’ll be in the hospital next week. Parolin is the ultimate insider. He knows where the bodies are buried, metaphorically speaking, and he’s a master of soft power.
He’s been Francis’s right-hand man, but he’s viewed as more "institutional" than the current Pope. If the cardinals want someone who won’t rock the boat too hard but still understands the global stage, Parolin is the guy. But, his involvement in the controversial China-Vatican deal and some messy financial trials might be a drag on his candidacy.
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The "Asian Francis": Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Everyone calls him "Chito." Cardinal Tagle, from the Philippines, is basically a rock star in Asia. He’s charismatic, he cries in public (in a good way), and he’s deeply connected to the poor. At 68, he’s on the younger side. Some think he’s too much like Francis. If the College of Cardinals wants a "Francis II," they’ll go with Tagle.
However, the "Asian Francis" tag is a double-edged sword. There’s a segment of the Church that is, frankly, exhausted by the current style of leadership. They might see Tagle as more of the same. Plus, he recently faced some heat over management issues at Caritas Internationalis, the Church’s massive charity wing.
The European "Middle Ground" Candidates
A lot of people think the papacy should move back to Europe to "stabilize" the center.
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): The Archbishop of Bologna. He’s a "street priest" with a high-level diplomatic resume. He’s been Francis's peace envoy for the war in Ukraine. He’s got that Italian charm but with a very modern, progressive heart.
- Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary): If the pendulum swings back toward tradition, Erdő is the frontrunner. He’s a brilliant canon lawyer. He’s seen as a protector of European Christian identity. Conservatives love him because he’s predictable and disciplined.
- Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France): The Archbishop of Marseille. He’s a dark horse. He’s a bridge to the Mediterranean and the Muslim world. He’s intellectual but approachable.
Does the "South" Still Hold the Power?
Pope Francis broke the mold by coming from Argentina. Now, the "Global South" is where the Church is actually growing. Africa is the big question mark.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo is a massive figure. He’s 65 and isn't afraid to speak truth to power—he’s been a fierce critic of his own government. He also led the African bishops' pushback against Fiducia Supplicans (the document about blessing same-sex couples). This makes him a fascinating candidate: he’s socially progressive on poverty and climate, but "old school" on doctrine. That mix could win over a lot of votes from different factions.
The "Youth" Risk: Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Pizzaballa is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He’s 60. In the world of the Vatican, that’s practically a toddler. But he’s earned massive respect for how he’s handled the crisis in the Holy Land. He’s a Franciscan, humble, and a straight shooter. The problem? Most cardinals don't want a 25-year papacy. They want someone who will do a solid ten years and then hand over the keys.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Conclave
You see the headlines: "Liberal vs. Conservative." It’s a bit of a lie. Or at least, it’s an oversimplification.
The College of Cardinals isn't like the U.S. Senate. There are no official parties. It’s more about "ecclesiology"—how you think the Church should function. Do you want more power in the hands of local bishops (Synodality)? Or do you want a strong, central Roman authority?
Also, don't ignore the "Synod Bloc." There are about 60+ cardinals who have spent the last few years working together on the Synod on Synodality. They know each other’s coffee orders. They know who is a jerk in meetings and who actually listens. That personal chemistry matters way more than a Twitter debate.
The Logistics of the Vote
To win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority.
With 122 electors (as of early 2026), you need roughly 82 votes.
That is a high bar.
It’s why "compromise" candidates often end up with the white smoke.
Actionable Insights for Following the Transition
If you want to stay ahead of the news, stop looking at the "Top 10" lists and start looking at these three things:
- The "Pre-Conclave" Meetings: Watch the "General Congregations." This is where the cardinals meet before the actual vote to talk about the problems of the Church. The guy who gives the most "common sense" speech in these meetings often gains 20 votes overnight.
- Italian Proficiency: The Pope is the Bishop of Rome. Even though the Church is global, the bureaucracy is Italian. If a candidate doesn't speak fluent Italian, his chances drop by 50%. This is why Tagle and Zuppi are stronger than, say, an American candidate.
- The Age Factor: Look for candidates between 67 and 74. That is the sweet spot for a "transitional" papacy that provides stability without overstaying its welcome.
Keep an eye on Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta as well. He’s the Secretary General of the Synod. He’s been the architect of Francis’s biggest project. If the cardinals feel the Synod was a success, he’s a natural successor. If they think it was a mess, he’s the first one off the list.
The next few months will be filled with rumors, but remember: the Holy Spirit usually has a sense of humor. Nobody saw Jorge Bergoglio coming in 2013. The "running" for the next pope is less of a sprint and more of a quiet, prayerful walk through the Vatican gardens—until the bells start ringing.
To keep track of potential shifts, you should regularly check the Annuario Pontificio updates or credible Vaticanist blogs like The Pillar or Crux, which often pick up on the subtle movements in cardinal alliances before the mainstream press does.