If you’re looking at the Keystone State right now, it kinda feels like everyone is claiming a victory. But honestly, the answer to who is winning in Pennsylvania depends entirely on which office building in Harrisburg you’re staring at. It’s a messy, loud, and deeply divided political landscape.
The 2024 election cycle basically upended the "blue wall" narrative that Democrats spent years trying to build. Donald Trump didn't just win; he flipped the state with 50.37% of the vote compared to Kamala Harris's 48.66%. That’s a margin of about 120,000 votes. For a state that often comes down to a percentage point or two, that gap felt like a landslide to the people on the ground.
The Red Wave at the Top
It wasn't just the presidential race. Republicans had a massive night across the board in 2024. Dave McCormick managed to unseat long-time Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. in a race so tight it triggered a mandatory recount. Eventually, McCormick emerged with 48.82% of the vote. It was a gut-punch for the state’s Democratic establishment.
They also swept the "row offices." These are the statewide roles that usually fly under the radar but handle the actual gears of government. Dave Sunday won the Attorney General seat. Stacy Garrity held onto her spot as Treasurer, and Timothy DeFoor stayed on as Auditor General.
When people ask who is winning in Pennsylvania today, the GOP has the strongest argument for the high-level seats. They control the U.S. Senate delegation (split with John Fetterman), the majority of the U.S. House seats (10 to 7), and the state Senate.
The Democratic Stronghold in Harrisburg
But wait. It’s not a total GOP shutout. If you look at the state legislature, the story shifts.
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Democrats managed to hold onto a razor-thin 102-101 majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. It’s basically the narrowest margin possible, but it means Governor Josh Shapiro isn't totally isolated. Speaking of Shapiro, he’s currently the most popular politician in the state.
While Trump won the state in 2024, Shapiro’s approval ratings have hovered around 60%. That is unheard of in a state this polarized. He’s already launched his 2026 reelection bid. He's positioning himself as a "commonsense" executive who can get things done even when the building is literally split in half.
Why the Map Flipped
The shift in 2024 happened because of a few specific places.
- Bucks County: Long a suburban Democratic stronghold, it flipped red.
- Northampton and Erie: The "bellwether" counties both went for Trump.
- Luzerne County: This once-blue coal region continued its hard right turn.
Harris actually performed okay in the suburbs of Philadelphia, but she couldn't match the massive turnout Trump generated in the "T"—that big rural stretch between Pittsburgh and Philly.
The 2026 Battleground
Looking ahead to 2026, the question of who is winning in Pennsylvania is about to get even more complicated. Every single one of the 203 seats in the state House is up for grabs. Half of the state Senate is on the ballot too.
The Republicans want a "trifecta"—control of the House, Senate, and the Governor’s mansion. They are currently betting on Stacy Garrity to challenge Shapiro. Garrity has a high profile because of her work as Treasurer, but Shapiro has a massive campaign chest and that 60% approval rating.
It’s gonna be expensive. Like, "national record-breaking" expensive.
What This Means for You
Pennsylvania is essentially the center of the political universe. Because the state is so evenly split, neither party can ignore the middle.
If you're a voter or just watching from the sidelines, here are the real-world takeaways:
- Gridlock is the default. With a Democratic Governor and House but a Republican Senate, big laws usually only pass if they are part of a budget deal.
- The "Middle" is moving. The old union-heavy Democratic base in the West is disappearing, replaced by a more conservative, populist energy.
- Suburbs are the deciders. Watch the "collar counties" around Philadelphia (Montgomery, Chester, Delaware). If Democrats lose more ground there, the state stays red.
Essentially, who is winning in Pennsylvania is a moving target. The GOP has the momentum from 2024, but Shapiro is the most formidable obstacle they've faced in a decade.
Keep a close eye on the special elections throughout 2025. They usually signal which way the wind is blowing before the 2026 midterms. If you want to see the specific data yourself, the Pennsylvania Department of State website is the only place to get the certified, non-partisan numbers. Don't rely on social media graphics; the official tallies are what actually change the laws.