The Philadelphia Eagles are currently locked in a high-stakes battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card round, and if you’re looking for who is winning the eagles game, the scoreboard tells a story of a team struggling to find its rhythm.
Right now, the Buccaneers hold a commanding 16-9 lead as we approach the midpoint of the second quarter.
It hasn’t been pretty for the Birds. The energy at Raymond James Stadium is electric, but mostly for the home crowd. Baker Mayfield looks surprisingly comfortable. He’s carving through a secondary that seems to have lost the communication edge they had earlier in the season. On the flip side, Jalen Hurts is dealing with a finger injury that clearly isn't "fine," despite what the pre-game reports might have suggested. You can see it in the grip. You can see it in the way the ball sails on those deep out routes.
The Reality of the Scoreboard
Honestly, the score reflects exactly what’s happening in the trenches. The Eagles’ offensive line, usually a brick wall, is leaking. Todd Bowles is doing exactly what everyone expected: he’s blitzing. He’s bringing the house. And without A.J. Brown on the field—who is out with a knee injury—Hurts doesn't have that reliable "reset" button to go to when the pocket collapses. DeVonta Smith is playing his heart out, but he can't be everywhere at once.
The Buccaneers jumped out early with a field goal, followed by a crisp touchdown pass from Mayfield to David Moore. That 44-yard play was a disaster for the Philly defense. Missed tackles. Poor pursuit angles. It looked like a continuation of the late-season collapse that saw the Eagles lose five of their last six games.
What’s Going Wrong for Philadelphia?
It’s the blitz. It’s always the blitz with Bowles. The Eagles’ coaching staff, led by Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, hasn’t shown a consistent answer for the extra rushers. You’d think they would have a hot read or a quick slant dialed up every single time Tampa sends six, but the timing is just off.
- Jalen Hurts' Discomfort: The middle finger on his throwing hand is taped. It’s affecting the spiral.
- The Run Game is Ghosting: D'Andre Swift has had a few decent bursts, but the Eagles aren't sticking to the ground game long enough to take the pressure off their quarterback.
- Defensive Lapses: Avonte Maddox and the rest of the secondary are playing "bend but don't break," but they are bending a lot.
Mayfield is currently 11-for-17 for 174 yards. Those aren't world-beating numbers, but they are efficient enough to keep the chains moving and keep the Eagles' high-powered (on paper) offense off the grass.
🔗 Read more: Notre Dame vs Navy: Why This Rivalry Still Matters in the Modern Era
Who is Winning the Eagles Game and Can They Flip the Script?
If you are betting on a comeback, history says don't count Philadelphia out, but the "eye test" says something else. To understand who is winning the eagles game, you have to look at the third-down conversion rate. Tampa Bay is converting; Philly is stalling.
The Eagles finally got some life with a late first-quarter drive that ended in a field goal, and they just added another one. But field goals don’t win playoff games on the road. You need six.
The absence of A.J. Brown is the elephant in the room. He’s the physical presence that dictates how safeties play. Without him, the Bucs are squeezing the intermediate routes and daring Hurts to beat them deep with Quez Watkins or Julio Jones. So far, that gamble is paying off for Florida’s team.
Key Personnel Updates
Let's talk about the injuries because they are deciding the winner right now.
- A.J. Brown (WR): Out. This is the biggest blow.
- Reed Blankenship (S): Active, but clearly playing through pain.
- Julio Jones (WR): Stepping up, but he’s not the 2015 version of himself.
The Eagles' defense is missing that "it" factor. Ever since Matt Patricia took over the defensive play-calling duties, the identity of this unit has been a bit of a mess. They are playing soft coverage on 3rd-and-long, which is a recipe for disaster against a veteran like Mike Evans, even if Evans has had a couple of uncharacteristic drops today.
Why the Second Half Matters More Than Ever
The trend is worrying. If you look at the last month of football, the Eagles have been outscored significantly in the second half of games. If they don't find a way to neutralize the Tampa pass rush in the next thirty minutes of play, the "who is winning" question will have a very definitive, and perhaps permanent, answer.
Fans in Philly are already calling for heads. The social media atmosphere is toxic. But on the sideline, Jason Kelce is trying to keep the unit together. You can see him talking to the younger guys, trying to settle the nerves.
The Buccaneers aren't a perfect team. They finished the season 9-8 for a reason. They have lulls. They have moments where Mayfield tries to do too much and turns the ball over. The Eagles need one of those moments. They need a strip-sack from Haason Reddick or an interception from Darius Slay to flip the field and the momentum.
🔗 Read more: Andrew Van Ginkel College Days: From the Great Plains to the Big Ten
Tactical Shifts Needed Immediately
If Sirianni wants to win this, he has to go back to the basics.
- Establish the Run: Swift needs 15 carries in the second half. Period.
- Quick Game: Stop looking for the home run ball. Take the 4-yard hitch.
- Spy Mayfield: He’s gaining too many yards with his legs on broken plays.
Actionable Steps for the Rest of the Game
If you are following along and want to know where this is headed, keep your eyes on the Eagles' first drive of the third quarter. That is the season.
Watch the Line of Scrimmage: If Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson can’t give Hurts three seconds of clean air, the game is over.
Monitor the Finger: Watch the warm-up throws. If Hurts is shaking his hand or grabbing the finger after every contact, the playbook will remain limited, and the Bucs will continue to sit on those short routes.
Check the Defensive Alignment: If the Eagles continue to play ten yards off the receivers on third down, Mayfield will pick them apart until the clock hits zero.
📖 Related: Blair Fleming San Jose State: What Really Happened Behind the Scenes
The winner right now is Tampa Bay because they are playing with house money and a clear plan. Philadelphia is playing like a team afraid to lose, and in the NFL playoffs, that’s usually a death sentence. To stay updated, keep an eye on the turnover margin; that is the only stat that will change the current trajectory of this game.