Honestly, if you're asking who is winning the election right now today, you’re probably looking at a map that doesn't exist yet. It’s January 17, 2026. We are deep in the "shadow season" of the U.S. midterm elections. There are no exit polls. No magic needles. No CNN projections flashing across the screen with 99% of precincts reporting.
But that doesn't mean nobody is winning.
In the world of DC politics, "winning" right now isn't about votes—it’s about the exodus. We’re watching a massive reshuffling of the deck. As of this morning, about 10% of the U.S. House has already called it quits. They aren't running for reelection. Some are tired; others are eyeing governor mansions or Senate seats because, let's be real, the House is a grind.
Who is winning the election right now today in the polls?
Early polling is a fickle beast. If you look at the generic congressional ballot—the poll that asks people if they’d rather have a Democrat or a Republican in charge—things are looking kinda spicy for the blue team.
Recent data from aggregates like Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics show Democrats with a slight edge, roughly 3 to 4 points.
Does this mean they’ve won?
Hardly.
In 2024, Donald Trump reclaimed the White House with 49.8% of the popular vote. Now, in the second year of his term, the "midterm curse" is starting to settle in. Historically, the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the first midterm. It’s like a law of political physics. Republicans currently hold a slim 219-213 lead in the House. They can only afford to lose two seats before the gavel changes hands.
In the Senate, the GOP feels a bit safer with a 53-45 majority, but they’re defending 20 seats this cycle compared to the Democrats' 13. It’s a lopsided map that favors the GOP on paper, but momentum is a weird thing.
The Redistricting Wildcard
You can't talk about who is winning without talking about the lines on the map. Texas recently redrew its congressional districts—outside the usual Census cycle. This move, pushed by the Trump administration, created five new potential "pickup" opportunities for Republicans.
Take Bexar County, for example.
It used to be a Democratic stronghold represented by five lawmakers. After the redraw, it's down to four, and the lines have been nudged to make things a lot harder for incumbents like Greg Casar. When people ask who is winning the election right now today, the answer might actually be "the cartographers."
Global Winners: Uganda and Mumbai
While the U.S. is just warming up, other parts of the world actually finished their homework today.
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In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni was just declared the winner of his seventh term. He pulled in about 71% of the vote. His main rival, Bobi Wine, is currently in hiding, claiming the whole thing was rigged under an internet blackout.
Meanwhile, over in India, the Mumbai BMC (municipal) election results just dropped. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance basically ended a thirty-year streak of dominance by the Thackeray family. They cleared the majority mark with 118 seats.
The Trump Approval Factor
The "who is winning" question in 2026 is inseparable from Donald Trump’s approval rating. Right now, it’s hovering around 40%.
That’s not great.
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Chatham House and other trackers noted a steady decline since his 2025 inauguration. There’s a massive partisan divide—91% of Republicans love what he’s doing, while only 6% of Democrats agree. That 85-point gap is the definition of a polarized country.
If the election were held this afternoon, Democrats would likely capitalize on that "anti-incumbent" energy. But the election isn't today. It’s in November.
Why the "Retirement Exodus" Matters
When an incumbent retires, the seat becomes "open." Open seats are much easier to flip.
- Republicans are seeing 23 House members walk away.
- Democrats have 16 members calling it a career.
This suggests that Republicans are more worried about the "blue wave" than they’re letting on. High-profile exits, like Marjorie Taylor Greene resigning her seat earlier this month, leave vacuums that are hard to fill on short notice.
Real-World Action Steps for Voters
Since the "win" is still up for grabs, here is what you actually need to do if you want your side to come out on top:
- Check Your Registration (Again): States like Texas and Georgia have been aggressively updating voter rolls. Don't assume you're still on the list just because you voted in '24.
- Watch the Primaries: The "who" matters as much as the "party." In states like Wisconsin, Democrats are eyeing a "trifecta"—control of the governorship and both legislative chambers. The candidates chosen in the next few months will decide if that's possible.
- Monitor Special Elections: We have special elections coming up in Florida and Ohio to fill seats vacated by Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance. These are the "canaries in the coal mine." If the GOP wins them by smaller margins than usual, it’s a sign of trouble.
- Local Matters: As the Mumbai results showed, local control can shift after decades. Pay attention to your city council and school board races; they often signal which way the national wind is blowing.
The race is far from over. Right now, the "winner" is whoever can keep their base from falling into "midterm fatigue" while the other side is fired up and ready to flip the script.
To stay ahead of the curve, verify your local primary dates through your Secretary of State's website and look for non-partisan candidate guides as the filing deadlines approach in February.