If you look at a map of Ukraine today and compare it to a year ago, you might think nothing is happening. It looks frozen. Static. A stalemate. But that’s a massive mistake. Honestly, the question of who is winning the Russia Ukraine war isn't answered by coloring in a map with a red or blue crayon. War is more than geography. It’s about the slow, grinding destruction of resources, people, and political will.
It’s messy.
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Right now, Russia holds about 18% of Ukrainian territory. They’ve got the "land bridge" to Crimea. They’ve occupied cities like Mariupol and Avdiivka, which are now mostly piles of rubble and ghosts. But look at the cost. We’re talking about a conflict where 1,000 yards of muddy treeline might cost five thousand lives. Is that winning? Or is it just a very expensive way to lose more slowly?
The math of a meat grinder
Russia has the numbers. That’s their whole strategy. General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the former head of Ukraine's armed forces, famously called this a "stalemate" in late 2023, though the word got him in some political hot water. He wasn't lying. Since then, Russia has leaned into "meat wave" tactics. They send small groups of infantry—often former prisoners or poorly trained mobilized men—to find Ukrainian firing positions by basically getting shot at. Then, they rain down artillery.
It’s brutal. It’s 1914 levels of horror.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is playing a different game. They have to. They don't have the population of 140 million people to throw into a furnace. For Kyiv, winning looks like preservation. If they can kill five Russian soldiers for every one Ukrainian lost, they're "winning" the war of attrition. But lately, that math is getting harder. Russia has adapted. They’ve started using "glide bombs"—massive, old Soviet iron bombs fitted with wings and GPS. They drop them from 40 miles away, outside the reach of most Ukrainian air defenses. These things erase buildings. They erase the fortifications Ukraine spent years building.
When an entire defensive line is turned into a crater, you have to retreat. That’s what happened in Bakhmut. That’s what happened in Avdiivka.
Who is winning the Russia Ukraine war on the water and in the air?
Here is the weird part: Ukraine is winning the naval war without even having a traditional navy.
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Seriously. Think about that. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was supposed to dominate. Instead, they’ve been forced to move most of their ships away from Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Why? Because Ukraine’s Magura V5 sea drones—basically explosive jet skis controlled by a guy with a PlayStation controller—keep sinking billion-dollar warships. If you measure "winning" by the ability to keep trade lanes open, Ukraine is doing surprisingly well. They’re exporting grain again. They’ve pushed the Russian fleet back to the eastern edge of the Black Sea.
But then you look at the sky.
Russia produces thousands of Shahed-style drones. They launch them every night to keep Ukrainian civilians in basements and drain the batteries of expensive Patriot missile systems. Ukraine is desperately short on interceptors. Every time a $2 million missile is used to shoot down a $20,000 drone, the economic balance tilts toward Moscow. It’s a math problem that Kyiv can’t solve without constant, massive checks from the West.
The Western "Lifeline" problem
Western support isn't a steady stream; it’s a leaky faucet.
The U.S. 2024 aid package took months to get through Congress. During those months, Ukrainian artillery units were rationing shells. They were firing one shot for every ten the Russians fired. You can’t win like that. You can barely survive like that.
European countries like Germany and France have stepped up, but their industrial bases aren't ready for a high-intensity land war. They’re trying to build factories that won't be fully operational for years. Russia, conversely, has moved to a full war economy. They’re spending about 7% of their GDP on the military. They’ve got North Korean shells arriving by the trainload. They’ve got Iranian drones. They are prepared for this to last until 2026, 2027, or longer.
The psychological front and the "Frozen" myth
Is Putin winning? In his mind, probably. He’s survived the initial shock of sanctions. The Russian economy didn't collapse; it just pivoted to China and India. He’s betting that the West will get bored. He’s waiting for elections in Washington and Berlin to change the tide.
But there’s a massive "but" here.
Ukraine hasn't folded. They’ve managed to take the war to Russian soil with long-range drone strikes on oil refineries. These strikes hurt. They cut into the one thing Russia needs: petrodollars. When a refinery in Ryazan or St. Petersburg goes up in flames, it’s a message to the Russian elite that the "special military operation" isn't just something happening on TV anymore. It’s real. It’s at their doorstep.
Why territory is a lying metric
Historians will tell you that in wars of attrition, territory is the last thing to change before a collapse.
In 1918, Germany was still occupying French soil when their home front fell apart. I’m not saying Russia is about to collapse—far from it—but looking at the front line is like looking at the scoreboard in the second quarter of a football game. It tells you the score, but it doesn't tell you who has the most energy left for the fourth quarter.
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Ukraine’s "victory" definition has shifted. In 2022, it was "kick them all out." Now, for many, "winning" means surviving as a sovereign, democratic state with a path to the EU, even if some land remains occupied for a generation.
What to watch for next
If you want to know who is winning the Russia Ukraine war, stop looking at the map for a second. Look at these three things instead:
- The Shell Ratio: Can the West provide the 2 million shells a year Ukraine needs to keep the Russians from simply walking forward?
- The Energy War: Can Russia break the Ukrainian power grid this winter? If the lights stay off, people leave. If people leave, the economy dies.
- Mobilization: Can Ukraine find a way to draft more men without destroying its future workforce or causing a political crisis at home?
Russia has the momentum right now in terms of raw firepower. They are making tactical gains in the Donbas. They are taking villages. But these are "Pyrrhic victories"—the kind where you win the battle but lose so much strength that you can't finish the war.
Ukraine is in a defensive crouch. They are building "Dragon's Teeth" and deep trenches, trying to make every inch of ground cost Russia a thousand lives. It’s a grim, horrific stage of the conflict.
Actionable insights for following the conflict
If you're trying to stay informed without getting buried in propaganda, you've got to be picky about your sources.
- Follow the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): They give daily, granular updates. They’re dry, but they’re accurate.
- Watch DeepStateMap: It’s a crowdsourced map that tracks the front line. It’s usually a day or two behind, but it’s the most honest visual of the "grind."
- Look at the economy: Keep an eye on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rates. They’ve been hiking them to fight inflation. That’s a sign of internal pressure that doesn't show up on a battlefield map.
- Check the Black Sea: If Ukraine keeps the shipping lanes open, they have a future. If Russia closes them, Ukraine becomes a landlocked, failed state.
The reality? Nobody is "winning" in the way we want them to. There is no "Mission Accomplished" banner coming soon. This is a test of who can bleed longer without fainting. Right now, both sides are still standing, but both are swaying. To truly understand the state of the war, look at the fatigue in the eyes of the soldiers and the cracks in the industrial machines behind them. That’s where the real answer lies.
Keep your eyes on the ammunition production numbers and the energy infrastructure. Those are the real scoreboard in 2026. The map is just a snapshot of the pain.