Everyone had a theory. If you spent any time on social media or watching the news leading up to November 5, 2024, you were bombarded with "data" that felt like it was pulling you in twelve different directions. Some folks were certain that the momentum was behind Kamala Harris after she stepped in for Joe Biden. Others looked at the betting markets and saw a massive wave building for Donald Trump.
So, honestly, who predicted to win the election correctly, and who ended up with egg on their face?
It wasn't just a coin flip. We saw legendary pollsters miss by double digits and "vibe-based" models get absolutely crushed by the reality of the American electorate. Looking back from 2026, the 2024 race remains a masterclass in why we should probably stop trusting "sure things" in politics.
The Modelers: Silver vs. Lichtman
You've probably heard of the "13 Keys to the White House." Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted almost every election for decades, was adamant. He called it early for Kamala Harris. He basically said the structural "keys"—things like the lack of a primary contest and the absence of a major third-party threat—favored the incumbent party.
But the keys failed. Spectacularly.
On the other side, you had Nate Silver. He’s the data guy who founded FiveThirtyEight (though he was running his own Silver Bulletin by 2024). Silver’s model was much more cautious. While many polls showed Harris with a slight lead, Silver’s final "gut" or model lean actually started tilting toward Trump in the final weeks. He gave Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College at one point in September, which was way higher than what most mainstream media outlets were comfortable reporting.
The Shocking Iowa Miss
If there’s one person who wants to delete November 2, 2024, from the history books, it’s Ann Selzer. She’s often called the "Queen of Polling" because her Iowa polls are usually gold. A few days before the election, her poll showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa.
The internet went wild.
People thought, "If Harris is winning Iowa, she’s winning everything."
She wasn't. Trump didn't just win Iowa; he crushed it by over 13 percentage points. That’s a 16-point swing from the prediction. It was an outlier that misled a lot of people into thinking the "silent majority" was actually a "silent blue wave."
Betting Markets vs. Traditional Polls
While the "experts" were debating margins of error, the people putting their money where their mouths are—the bettors on platforms like Polymarket—were much more bullish on Trump.
🔗 Read more: Mexican Jumping the Border: Why the Migration Patterns Are Shifting Right Now
- Polymarket: This crypto-based betting site had Trump as a clear favorite weeks before the election.
- The "Whale": There was a famous French trader who bet over $28 million on a Trump victory. Most critics called it market manipulation. In the end? That guy walked away with $85 million.
- PredictIt: Another market that showed a late-game surge for the Republican ticket while national polls were still calling it a "dead heat."
Bettors seemed to sense something the pollsters couldn't: the shift in the "under-the-radar" demographics.
What Really Happened with the Voters?
The reason so many predictions about who predicted to win the election were off is that the "coalitions" changed. We aren't living in 2016 anymore. Trump didn't just win with rural white voters. He made massive gains with Hispanic men and Black men.
According to Pew Research, Trump won about 48% of the Hispanic vote. Compare that to the 36% he got in 2020. That is a massive shift that almost no "mainstream" model fully captured before the votes were counted.
Harris, on the other hand, struggled with the "incumbency trap." Even though she wasn't the president, she was tied to Joe Biden’s administration during a time of high inflation. People were frustrated. In the end, the "vibe" of wanting change outweighed the "vibe" of the "Joy" campaign.
The Final Numbers
When the dust settled on the 2024 election, the results were clear:
- Donald Trump: 312 Electoral Votes
- Kamala Harris: 226 Electoral Votes
- Popular Vote: Trump won by about 1.5 percentage points, becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004.
Why the Predictions Failed
Most models rely on "likely voter" screens. They ask people if they plan to vote. But 2024 saw a lot of "low-propensity" voters show up—people who don't usually answer phone calls from pollsters or participate in online panels.
🔗 Read more: Volusia Regional Juvenile Detention Center: What Families Actually Need to Know
Also, we have to talk about "social desirability bias." Some people simply don't want to tell a stranger on the phone they are voting for Trump, even if they've already decided. This "shy voter" effect seems to have persisted even after three election cycles.
Actionable Insights: How to Read the Next Election
If you’re looking at the next set of midterms or the 2028 race, don't get sucked into the hype of a single poll. Here is how to actually judge the landscape:
- Ignore the "Gold Standard" Outliers: If one poll shows a massive shift that no one else sees (like the Iowa poll), it's probably wrong. Don't build your worldview on it.
- Watch the Betting Markets, but with Caution: They are better at catching "momentum" than polls, but they can be swayed by big spenders. Use them as a "vibe check," not a gospel.
- Look at "Non-College" Trends: The biggest divide in American politics right now isn't just race; it's education. If a candidate is losing ground with non-college-educated voters of all races, they are in trouble.
- Check Local Results: Sometimes the best "prediction" is looking at how people are voting in local school board or special elections six months prior.
The 2024 election proved that American politics is more fluid than the "experts" want to admit. The map is changing. The voters are moving. And the next time someone tells you they know exactly who predicted to win the election, remember Ann Selzer in Iowa.
Take a breath, look at the broad averages, and wait for the actual ballots. Everything else is just noise.
Next Step for You: To better understand how these demographic shifts happen, you should look into the specific county-by-county shifts in the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I can break down those specific numbers for you if you're interested.