So, it’s 2026. The midterms are staring us right in the face, and honestly, everyone is already looking past them. You can't walk through a political fundraiser without hearing the same question: Who will Democrats run in 2028?
It feels a bit early, sure. But in politics, if you aren't already running, you're losing. The 2024 election left a lot of bruises, and the party is currently in this weird, self-reflective phase where they’re trying to figure out if they want a "fighter," a "manager," or someone who can just win back a lunch pail voter in PA.
Let’s be real. The bench is actually pretty deep, but it’s messy.
The Governor Primary (Before the Real Primary)
If you want to know who will Democrats run in 2028, look at the state capitals. Right now, the "Governor Track" is the hottest thing going. These are the people with actual executive experience who can say, "Hey, I actually ran something while D.C. was screaming at itself."
Gavin Newsom is basically the elephant in the room. He’s telegenic, he’s got a massive fundraising machine (his PAC, Campaign for Democracy, is already pulling in millions), and he loves a fight. He’s been all over the place—South Carolina, national podcasts, you name it. A September 2025 Yahoo/YouGov poll put him at the top of the pack with 21% of Democratic support. People like that he’s willing to "troll" back. But let's be honest: being from California is a double-edged sword. To some, he’s the "slick politician" Republicans love to hate.
📖 Related: Washington DC Traffic Tickets: How to Actually Fight Them Without Losing Your Mind
Then there’s Josh Shapiro. If you want a guy who knows how to win in a swing state, he’s the one. He just launched his 2026 re-election bid in Pennsylvania, and everyone knows that's just a warm-up. He’s got this "GSD" (Get Stuff Done) mantra that plays really well with moderates. He’s currently sitting around 7% in early odds, but that’s mostly because he’s been keeping his head down compared to Newsom.
The "Big Ten" Contenders
- Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan): "Big Gretch" is a powerhouse. She’s term-limited, so she’s looking for a job after 2026. She’s been playing it very cool—strategic ambiguity is her middle name—but her new role as vice chair of the Democratic Governors Association puts her right at the center of the party’s national strategy.
- Wes Moore (Maryland): He’s the rising star. Army vet, Rhodes scholar, and Maryland’s first Black governor. He’s got charisma for days. Some folks think he’s the future of the party, though he recently called even thinking about 2028 "disqualifying." (That’s usually code for "I’m definitely thinking about it.")
- J.B. Pritzker (Illinois): He’s got the money, sure, but he’s also used his state as a laboratory for progressive policies. He’s been testing the waters, and he’s not afraid to use his own wallet to fund the fight.
What About the "Old Guard"?
It’s kinda awkward, but we have to talk about Kamala Harris. She’s the former VP and she’s still got 19% support in those early polls. Her supporters say she’s the most "battle-tested" person in the room. Her critics? They say Democrats don't usually give losers a second chance. It’s a tough spot.
And then there's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She’s been touring with Bernie Sanders and has a massive following among the base. She’s sitting in third place in some polls, and honestly, she represents the direction a lot of the younger activists want the party to go.
The Strategy: "Shadow Campaigns" and Survival
The 2026 midterms are the "Great Filter." If you're a Governor like Shapiro or a Senator like Jon Ossoff (who’s also mentioned a lot), you have to survive 2026 first.
But it's not just about winning; it's about the "shadow campaign." These candidates are spending 2026 doing favors. They’re raising money for candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. They’re building a "donor network" that is essentially a campaign in waiting.
Pete Buttigieg is another one to watch here. He’s moved to Michigan and has been a constant presence on cable news. People love his communication skills, even if they wonder if a former Cabinet secretary has the right "lane" for 2028.
The Big Misconception
Most people think the 2028 nominee will be whoever is the most "anti-Trump." But looking at the internal party chatter, there’s a massive shift toward affordability.
Democrats are realizing that "democracy is on the ballot" didn't fully work in 2024. The next nominee probably won't just be a "fighter"—they'll be someone who can explain why eggs cost five dollars. That’s why governors like Andy Beshear from Kentucky are suddenly getting national attention. If you can win in a deep-red state like Kentucky by talking about "good roads and bridges," the national party wants to know your secret.
Actionable Next Steps
- Watch the DGA Vice Chair: Keep a close eye on Gretchen Whitmer’s moves in this role. It’s where she’ll build the donor connections needed for a national run.
- Monitor the 2026 Margins: If Josh Shapiro wins re-election by double digits in PA, he becomes the instant favorite for many pragmatists.
- The Newsom Decision: He said he’d decide after the 2026 midterms. That’s the "starting gun."
The reality of who will Democrats run in 2028 is that the race has already started. We’re just in the part of the movie where everyone is still pretending they aren't interested.