If you were watching the returns on that Tuesday night in November 2024, you probably saw the maps flickering red faster than the pundits expected. Honestly, the big question of who won texas senate race was settled much earlier than the 2018 nail-biter that nearly saw a blue wave.
Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz didn't just win; he secured a third term with a definitive 8.5-point margin over Democratic challenger Colin Allred. For those keeping score, Cruz pulled in roughly 5,990,741 votes (53.1%), while Allred finished with 5,031,249 (44.6%).
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It’s been over 30 years since a Democrat won a statewide seat in Texas. That’s a long time. People keep saying Texas is "trending purple," but the 2024 results suggest the state’s red roots are deeper than a few Austin tech transplants might imply.
The Numbers That Actually Matter
Most of the pre-election polling had this thing tight. Some surveys even showed Allred within one or two points, which fueled a massive fundraising machine. Allred actually out-raised Cruz, bringing in north of $80 million compared to Cruz's $59 million (as of late-cycle reports). But money doesn't always buy the "W" in the Lone Star State.
Cruz flipped 13 counties that had previously gone elsewhere or stayed competitive. He even won a slight majority of the Hispanic and Latino vote, a demographic Democrats have historically relied on to make the math work in Texas.
- Ted Cruz (R): 53.1%
- Colin Allred (D): 44.6%
- Ted Brown (L): 2.4%
The gap was significantly wider than the 2.6% margin Cruz survived against Beto O'Rourke in 2018. Basically, Cruz learned his lesson from that scare and spent the last six years "keeping Texas, Texas."
Why Allred’s Strategy Fell Short
Colin Allred was a different kind of candidate. He's a former NFL linebacker and a relatively moderate congressman from Dallas. He didn't do the "rockstar" stadium tour like Beto. Instead, he tried to run as a "reasonable" alternative, focusing heavily on abortion rights and pointing out Cruz’s infamous 2021 Cancun trip during the state's power grid failure.
The problem? He struggled with name recognition outside of the major metros.
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Cruz, meanwhile, tied Allred to the national Democratic ticket at every single turn. The phrase "Colin Allred is Kamala Harris" was practically a mantra on the trail. By the time the only debate rolled around in mid-October, Cruz had successfully framed the race as a choice between "sane and crazy," focusing on border security and transgender issues in sports.
The Impact of the Border
You can't talk about a Texas election without talking about the border. It's just the reality of the geography. Cruz hammered Allred on his voting record regarding border wall construction. Even though Allred tried to pivot toward a "bipartisan" border security bill, the Republican base—and a growing number of independent voters—didn't buy it.
Rural Texas vs. The Big Five
Allred did what Democrats always do: he won the big urban centers. He took Dallas, Houston (Harris County), Austin (Travis County), San Antonio (Bexar), and El Paso. In Bexar County, Allred held a 16-point lead.
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But Texas has 254 counties.
When you lose the rural and mid-sized counties by 70% or 80%, the math for a Democrat just stops working. Cruz dominated the "in-between" places, and that’s where the race was won.
What This Means for the Future
The 2024 results weren't just a win for Cruz; they were part of a larger Republican shift that saw the GOP take back the U.S. Senate with a 53-47 majority. If Allred had won, it would have been the first time a Black man represented Texas in the Senate. That history will have to wait.
So, what should you actually do with this info? If you're looking at the political landscape, don't just look at the top-line percentages. Look at the shift in the Rio Grande Valley. The fact that Republican margins are increasing in predominantly Hispanic areas suggests that the "demographics is destiny" argument for a blue Texas is, at the very least, stalled.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the Voter Rolls: If you're a Texan, verify your registration status at the Texas Secretary of State website, as rolls are frequently updated after major cycles.
- Follow the Committees: Keep an eye on the Senate Commerce Committee, where Cruz holds significant influence, to see how Texas-specific industries (energy and tech) are impacted by his third term.
- Analyze Local Trends: Look at your specific county's turnout data to see if your local area is trending toward the state average or moving in a different direction before the 2026 midterms.