Politics is kinda weird right now. We are technically in the middle of the 2026 midterm cycle, yet everyone is already obsessing over the next big move for the White House. If you're looking for a simple scoreboard on who's ahead in the presidential race right now, the answer isn't a single name—it's a chaotic mess of "shadow campaigns" and shifting approval ratings.
Honestly, the 2024 election feels like it was yesterday, but the machinery for 2028 is already humming in the background. While President Donald Trump is currently governing in the second year of his term, the "race" for what comes next is being run through proxy battles in the 2026 midterms.
🔗 Read more: What Really Happened With the Man Shot and Killed in Ontario CA Today
The current climate: Trump’s approval and the GOP bench
To understand who's winning, you have to look at the incumbent first. As of January 2026, Donald Trump’s job approval is sitting at roughly 36% to 38% according to recent Gallup and Quinnipiac data. That’s not exactly a "crushing it" number. In fact, it’s hovering just above his personal low of 34% from back in 2021.
Inside the Republican party, though, the story is totally different. He still holds about 89% approval among rank-and-file Republicans. This basically means the GOP is still "The House of Trump."
But the real eyes are on Vice President JD Vance. He’s the heir apparent, and his favorability among Republicans is a massive 91%. If the "race" is about who leads the MAGA movement after Trump, Vance is miles ahead of anyone else.
The Democratic "Shadow Campaign"
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are playing a sophisticated game of "don't call it a presidential campaign yet." California Governor Gavin Newsom is the name you’ll hear the most. He’s been a fundraising machine. His "Campaign for Democracy" PAC reportedly pulled in $114 million recently.
📖 Related: 2025: What Really Happened During the Year That Was
Newsom recently told CBS News he’d decide his actual plans after the 2026 midterms, but he’s already leading early 2028 Democratic primary polls with about 21% support.
Here is how the rest of the Democratic field looks in early polling:
- Gavin Newsom: 21%
- Kamala Harris: 19%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: (Coming in third, buoyed by her recent tours with Bernie Sanders)
- Pete Buttigieg: 10%
- Josh Shapiro: (Holding a massive 60% approval rating in Pennsylvania, making him a major "sleeper" hit)
The 2026 Midterm proxy war
You can't talk about who's ahead in the presidential race right now without talking about the House and Senate. The midterms are the ultimate "vibes check" for the next presidential run.
Right now, the generic congressional ballot is tight. Most polls show Democrats with a slight 2 to 4 point lead over Republicans in national preference. For example, a December 2025 Economist/YouGov poll put Democrats at 42% and Republicans at 38%.
But the map is tough. The Cook Political Report currently lists about 22 "Toss Up" seats in the House. If Democrats can flip the House in 2026, whoever led that charge (looking at you, Hakeem Jeffries) gets a massive boost for the next presidential cycle.
Why the "independent" voter is the real winner
Something wild is happening with party ID. For the first time in three years, Gallup reports that 45% of Americans now identify as Independents. That is a record high.
Neither party is "ahead" in the traditional sense because the middle of the country is effectively checked out. Only 24% of people say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. When people are this grumpy, being the "outsider" is the biggest advantage you can have.
Key takeaways for the 2026-2028 cycle
If you want to track who is actually winning, stop looking at national "horse race" polls and start looking at these three metrics:
- Gubernatorial Approval: Watch Josh Shapiro (PA) and Wes Moore (MD). If they maintain 60%+ approval in swing states, they are the real threats to the GOP.
- Fundraising Velocity: Newsom is the gold standard here. If another Democrat starts putting up $100M+ numbers, the race has officially shifted.
- The "Trump Effect" in Primaries: In 2026, watch how Trump-backed candidates perform. If they win big, JD Vance is the undisputed 2028 frontrunner. If they stumble (like in some 2022 races), the door opens for a "normie" Republican.
What to do next:
To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the Special Elections happening in early 2026. These are the "canaries in the coal mine." Also, track the FEC quarterly filings for "Leadership PACs." If a Governor who isn't up for re-election is suddenly raising millions in Florida or Texas, they aren't just being nice—they're running for President.