Why a Map of Nuclear Targets is Probably Not What You Think

Look, let's be real. If you’ve spent any time scouring the internet for a map of nuclear targets, you’ve probably seen those terrifying red-dot graphics. They usually look like the US or Europe caught a bad case of the measles. It’s scary stuff. Most of it, honestly, is based on guesswork or declassified data from the 1950s that hasn't been relevant since the Beatles were a thing.

The reality of nuclear targeting is way more fluid and, frankly, more bureaucratic than the movies suggest. Cold War planners weren't just clicking "delete" on cities. They were looking at rail yards. They were looking at ball-bearing factories. Today, the logic has shifted toward "counterforce" and "countervalue." One hits the guns; the other hits the people.

The 1956 SAC List: The Only Real Map We Have

We actually have a blueprint of what this looked like once. In 2015, the National Archives declassified a 1956 Strategic Air Command (SAC) study. It’s massive. It’s grim. It lists over 1,200 cities in the Soviet bloc, from East Berlin to Beijing.

Why does this old document matter for a modern map of nuclear targets? Because it shows the "System 1" thinking of nuclear war. The goal wasn't just to win; it was "systematic destruction." Moscow was the top priority. They had 179 "Designated Ground Zeroes" just for that one city. Imagine that. Nearly two hundred warheads for one metro area.

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The targets were categorized by what they called "Category 275," which was basically a code for "population." They wanted to destroy the people. That’s a chilling thought, but it’s the historical bedrock of how these maps are built.

Why Modern Maps Are Mostly Educated Guesses

If you see a map on social media today claiming to show exactly where Russia or China would hit the US, take it with a grain of salt. A huge one. Top-secret targeting folders are, well, top secret.

However, we can use logic. Nuclear strategy usually follows a few predictable patterns. First, you have the "intercontinental ballistic missile" (ICBM) silos. In the United States, these are mostly in the "kinda middle of nowhere" states. Think Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, Minot in North Dakota, and F.E. Warren in Wyoming. These are what experts call "nuclear sponges." The idea—as dark as it is—is that an enemy would have to dump hundreds of warheads into these empty fields to knock out our missiles, hopefully sparing the big cities for a few hours.

The Big Target Types

1. Nuclear Command and Control. This is the brain. The Pentagon. Raven Rock in Pennsylvania. Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado. If you kill the brain, the body can't fight back. Or so the theory goes.

2. Communication Hubs. You’ve probably never heard of some of the most important places on a map of nuclear targets. Places like Jim Creek in Washington state. Why? Because it’s a VLF (Very Low Frequency) transmitter that talks to submarines. If a sub can't hear the order to fire, it’s just a very expensive underwater hotel.

3. Major Infrastructure. Think ports. Norfolk, Virginia, is a massive target because it’s where the Atlantic Fleet lives. If you take out Norfolk, you’ve basically crippled the Navy’s ability to move.

The "2,000 Warhead" Scenario

Most researchers, like those at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), look at the numbers. Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda are basically the gold standard for this stuff. They don't draw "scare maps," but they track the warheads.

If a full-scale exchange happened—the "bolt from the blue"—a map of nuclear targets would likely cover every city with more than 50,000 people. It sounds overkill. It is. But the logic of "Mutual Assured Destruction" (MAD) relies on the idea that there is nothing left to come back to.

But here is the thing people miss: it’s not just about the explosion.

The fallout is the real map-maker. If a ground-burst hits a silo in North Dakota, the wind (which usually blows west to east) is going to carry that radioactive dust over Chicago, Detroit, and eventually New York. You don't need a direct hit to be on the map. You just need to be downwind.

Misconceptions About Survival

People often think living in a small town makes them safe.

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Maybe.

But if your small town is near a major rail junction or a refinery, you might be higher on the list than a suburb of Los Angeles. Targeting is about stopping the enemy from recovering. If you destroy the power grid and the fuel supply, the war ends because the country stops functioning.

There's also the "Limited Exchange" theory. Some strategists believe a map of nuclear targets might only include military bases. A "warning shot" over the Pacific or a hit on a remote radar station. But most experts, including the late Daniel Ellsberg (who literally wrote the book on this in The Doomsday Machine), argued that there’s no such thing as a small nuclear war. Once one goes off, the rest usually follow.

The FEMA 1990 Map

You’ve probably seen the "high-probability target" map from FEMA. It looks like it’s from an old computer game. It was actually produced for civil defense planning in the late 80s and early 90s.

It’s outdated.

For one, it still includes bases that have been closed for decades through the BRAC (Base Realignment and Closure) process. It also assumes a massive Soviet strike that might not reflect current Russian or Chinese doctrine. Russia, for instance, has moved toward "escalate to de-escalate," which might involve using a single smaller "tactical" nuke to scare everyone into stopping. A map for that scenario would only have one dot.

What about China?

China’s map is changing fast. For a long time, they had a "minimal deterrent" posture. They only had a few dozen missiles. Now? They are building silos in the desert at an incredible pace. This changes the map of nuclear targets for the US. Suddenly, we have more targets to hit, which means we need more warheads, which means they build more... you see where this goes. It’s the classic arms race loop.

The Hard Truth About Urban Centers

If you live in a city like New York, DC, or London, you are on the map. Period.

There’s no use sugarcoating it. These are "Value Targets." They are targeted not just for their people, but for their symbolic power and economic weight. In a total war scenario, these are the first to go.

However, there is a nuance here. Modern MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) mean one missile can carry 10 warheads. They can spread them out. Instead of one big bomb on Manhattan, a planner might put five smaller ones across the five boroughs to maximize the "overpressure" wave. This is the math of misery.

Actionable Insights for the Anxious

So, what do you actually do with this information? Staring at a map of nuclear targets can lead to a bit of a spiral.

1. Check your proximity to "Sponge" states. If you live in the Great Plains, you aren't in a "safe" zone; you're in the middle of a primary strike zone for ICBM silos.
2. Understand the wind. Use tools like Nullschool or other live wind mappers. Look at the prevailing winds in your area. If there's a major Air Force base 50 miles west of you, that’s your primary risk factor.
3. Focus on the basics. Most people on the "fringe" of a map won't die from a blast. They’ll deal with power outages, supply chain collapses, and "black start" issues with the grid. Having two weeks of water and a manual can opener is more useful than a bunker in the woods you can't get to.
4. Follow the experts, not the hype. Organizations like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Arms Control Association provide actual data. If a map doesn't cite its sources, it's just art.
5. Advocate for de-alerting. Many of these targets are only on the map because missiles are kept on "hair-trigger alert." Reducing that readiness reduces the chance of an accidental map becoming a reality.

The map is a tool for planners, not a prophecy. While the dots on the screen look permanent, they represent a policy choice. Understanding where those dots are—and why they are there—is the first step in understanding the sheer scale of the risk we live with every day. It’s not about fear; it’s about being informed.

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The most important thing to remember is that these maps are designed to prevent the very thing they depict. The "threat" is the deterrent. Whether that logic still holds up in the 21st century is the biggest question of our time.

Keep your eyes on the data, not the doomsday clocks. Knowing the geography of risk helps you prioritize what actually matters: being prepared for the mundane emergencies while hoping the nuclear ones remain nothing more than dots on a declassified paper from 1956.

Next Steps for Research:

• Review the National Security Archive for declassified SAC targeting documents.
• Use the NUKEMAP tool by Alex Wellerstein to model the actual effects of specific yields on your local geography.
• Study the 2022-2024 Nuclear Posture Reviews to see how modern command structure has shifted away from Cold War-era "total destruction" models.