Bitcoin is doing that thing again. You know the one—where it spends months acting like a stablecoin, boring everyone to tears, and then suddenly decides to start climbing the wall of worry. As of January 18, 2026, we’re seeing Bitcoin hovering around the $95,000 mark.
It's been a wild ride getting here. Honestly, if you looked at the charts back in late 2025, things felt pretty grim. We saw over a trillion dollars in market value evaporate in just six weeks, and the "experts" were lining up to tell us the four-year cycle was officially dead.
But here we are.
The price has been grinding upward, and while it hasn't quite smashed through that psychological $100,000 ceiling yet, the momentum is undeniably shifting. People are asking why bitcoin is going up now, especially after such a stagnant 2025. It isn't just one thing. It's a messy, complicated mix of supply shocks, institutional pipelines finally opening up, and a macro environment that’s becoming increasingly friendly to "hard" assets.
The Ghost of the 2024 Halving Finally Shows Up
Remember the 2024 halving? Everyone expected fireworks the day after it happened, but the market basically gave us a shrug. It turns out, the supply shock from a halving usually takes about 12 to 18 months to actually start strangling the market.
We’re in that window right now.
Miners are currently producing only 3.125 BTC per block. In 2025, many of these miners were forced to dump their holdings just to keep the lights on because energy prices were spiking. Now? The weak hands have been shaken out. According to data from CryptoQuant, exchange reserves are sitting at their lowest levels since 2018.
Basically, there just isn't much Bitcoin left for sale. When a big buyer comes in—say, a corporate treasury or a pension fund—they aren't finding deep liquidity. They’re hitting a wall. This "thin" market means even moderate buying pressure moves the needle much further than it did two years ago.
Institutional Adoption Is No Longer Just a PowerPoint Slide
For years, we heard that "the institutions are coming." It felt like a meme. But the Bitwise 2025 advisor survey recently dropped some pretty startling numbers that explain the current price action.
About 32% of financial advisors are now reporting that they hold crypto in client portfolios. That’s up from 22% just a year ago. Even more interesting? Roughly 56% of those advisors own Bitcoin personally.
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Think about that for a second.
When an advisor owns an asset themselves, they’re far more likely to recommend it to their clients. We’re seeing a massive shift where Bitcoin is moving from a speculative "maybe" to a strategic "must-have" in a diversified portfolio. The spot ETFs, like BlackRock’s IBIT, have become the primary plumbing for this. In 2025 alone, ETFs and corporate treasuries like Strategy represented nearly $44 billion in net spot demand.
That’s not retail "moon boys" buying the dip. That’s professional, cold-blooded capital.
The Macro Flip: Why the Dollar’s Pain is Bitcoin’s Gain
Money is getting cheaper again. After the "Erdoganisation" of the Fed—basically a pivot toward more political influence over interest rates—inflation concerns haven't exactly gone away.
Central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles. As interest rates fall, the "opportunity cost" of holding Bitcoin drops. If you can only get 2% or 3% in a savings account while the government keeps printing money to service its debt, suddenly a mathematically scarce digital asset looks a lot more attractive.
Cathie Wood of Ark Invest recently pointed out that Bitcoin is actually becoming scarcer than gold. Gold supply grows by about 1.8% a year because when the price goes up, miners just dig deeper. Bitcoin doesn't care about the price. The protocol only releases a set amount, and right now, that issuance rate is dropping toward 0.9%.
Scarcity wins.
What Could Trip Us Up?
It isn't all "up and to the right."
There are real risks that the market is currently digesting. For one, the "Quantum Risk" is no longer just a sci-fi plot point. Jefferies recently removed Bitcoin from a key Asia-focused portfolio, specifically citing the long-term threat that advances in quantum computing could break the cryptography securing the network.
Is it going to happen tomorrow? Probably not. But it’s a narrative that could cap the upside if more big banks start getting cold feet.
There's also the technical side of things. Some analysts, looking at Elliott Wave theory, think this current bounce might just be a "B-wave"—a fake-out rally before a deeper correction toward $70,000 or even $60,000.
Why the $100,000 Level Matters So Much
We are currently fighting a war at the $95,000 to $99,000 range.
This is the "Sell Wall of China." Thousands of limit orders are sitting just below $100k. If Bitcoin can decisively break and hold above $100,000, it triggers a massive psychological shift. Suddenly, every person who sat on the sidelines in 2025 feels the "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) kick back in.
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Dominic Basulto recently predicted that we could see $150,000 before 2026 is over. If the institutional pace picks up and we get a "splashy" move—like a major Silicon Valley company putting BTC on their balance sheet—that number doesn't even look that crazy.
Actionable Insights for the Current Market
If you're watching this rally and wondering how to play it, keep a few things in mind.
First, stop watching the 1-minute charts. The current move is being driven by structural changes (ETFs, halving lag, macro shifts), not by day traders.
- Watch the $92,000 support: As long as we stay above this level, the bullish structure remains intact. If we dip below, expect a "flush" of leveraged long positions.
- Monitor ETF Inflows: If the BlackRock and Fidelity flows turn negative for more than three days in a row, the rally might be losing its engine.
- Check the "HODL" waves: Look at on-chain data to see if long-term holders (people who haven't moved their coins in 1+ years) are starting to sell. If they stay put, the supply squeeze will only get tighter.
Bitcoin is moving up because the world is finally catching up to the math. It’s a slow-motion supply shock meeting a fast-moving institutional adoption curve.
Next Steps for You:
- Verify your cold storage security; as prices rise, you become a bigger target for hacks.
- Review your portfolio allocation—most advisors are now suggesting 2% to 5% for Bitcoin, but make sure it fits your specific risk tolerance.
- Set price alerts for $100,500; once the "round number" resistance is broken, the volatility will likely explode.