Why Goldman Sachs and American Express are the Most Interesting Mess in Banking Right Now

Why Goldman Sachs and American Express are the Most Interesting Mess in Banking Right Now

Banking breakups are usually boring. They involve a lot of lawyers in grey suits, some dry press releases about "strategic realignment," and a quiet migration of data. But the situation involving Goldman Sachs and American Express is different. It’s messy. It’s a case study in what happens when a Wall Street titan tries to play in the sandbox of everyday consumers and realizes the sand is actually quicksand.

For a couple of years now, the rumors have been swirling. Everyone wants to know: Is American Express actually going to take over the Apple Card from Goldman? It’s a question that matters to millions of people who have that sleek titanium card in their wallets. It also matters to the broader financial world because it represents the definitive end of an era. Goldman Sachs, the "Vampire Squid" itself, tried to become a bank for the masses. It didn't work.

The High-Stakes Flirtation with Retail Banking

Let’s be real. Goldman Sachs was never supposed to be the bank where you kept your grocery money. Their bread and butter has always been mergers, acquisitions, and helping billionaires hide their yachts—or buy new ones. But then came Marcus. And then came the Apple partnership.

The idea was simple enough on paper. Goldman had the capital and the prestige. Apple had the users. Together, they launched the Apple Card in 2019. It was hailed as the most successful credit card launch ever. But behind the scenes, the math was getting ugly. Goldman was losing billions. They were underestimating how hard it is to manage credit risk for the average person, especially when you’re trying to be the "customer-friendly" bank that doesn't charge fees.

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Enter American Express.

Amex is the logical suitor, right? They both cater to a premium demographic. They both value brand prestige. But as any expert in the space—like those following the reporting from The Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg over the last eighteen months—will tell you, the deal is incredibly complicated.

Why a Goldman Sachs and American Express Deal is So Hard to Close

You’d think Goldman would be desperate to hand over the keys. They are. The problem is that American Express isn't exactly a charity. They are one of the most disciplined lenders in the world. They like high-spend, low-risk customers.

The Apple Card user base is... varied.

While there are plenty of high-income Apple fans, the card was also marketed as being accessible. That means there's a lot of "subprime" or "near-prime" debt in that portfolio. Amex looks at that and sees a headache. They don't want to buy a portfolio that requires them to chase down people for missed payments on a $500 limit. That's not their vibe.

There is also the issue of the "platform." Goldman built a massive tech stack to support the Apple Card and the General Motors credit card. If Amex takes over, do they use Goldman's tech? Probably not. Amex has its own closed-loop network. Integrating the Apple Card into the Amex ecosystem would be like trying to plug a USB-C cable into a toaster. It can be done with enough adapters and fire extinguishers, but it’s not pretty.

The Apple Factor

We can't talk about Goldman Sachs and American Express without talking about the 800-pound gorilla in the room: Apple.

Apple has famously strict demands. They want the "Daily Cash" feature. They want the sleek interface in the Wallet app. They want no fees. Goldman agreed to these terms because they wanted to prove they could play in the big leagues of consumer tech. Amex, however, is used to being the boss. They have their own rewards programs (Membership Rewards) that they guard fiercely.

Would Apple allow Amex to replace Daily Cash with Amex points? Doubtful.
Would Amex agree to run a card where they don't get to control the branding or the rewards structure? Also doubtful.

What This Means for the General Motors Cards

It’s not just Apple. Goldman also scooped up the General Motors (GM) credit card business from Capital One a few years back. That was supposed to be another pillar of their consumer empire. Instead, it’s another thing they are trying to offload.

Barclays has been the name most frequently linked to the GM portfolio lately. This highlights the fragmentation of Goldman’s exit strategy. They aren't just selling one big bucket of business; they are trying to find homes for different "children" who all have different needs and problems.

If American Express stays away from the GM side, it shows they are only interested in the "prestige" association with Apple, and even then, only at the right price. Honestly, the price Goldman might have to accept is pennies on the dollar. They might even have to pay someone to take it.

The Reality of the Financials

Let's look at the numbers. Goldman’s Platform Solutions unit, which houses these credit card ventures, has reported staggering losses. We’re talking over $4 billion in a relatively short window. For a firm that prides itself on being the smartest guys in the room, that’s a massive ego bruise.

The "Net Charge-Off" rates—the money the bank gives up on ever collecting—have been significantly higher for Goldman’s credit cards than for peers like JPMorgan Chase or even Amex.

Why? Because when you're new to the game, you make rookie mistakes. You approve people who look good on paper but flake when the economy gets bumpy. Goldman's leadership, including CEO David Solomon, has faced intense internal pressure to stop the bleeding. The pivot back to "core" banking isn't just a suggestion; it's a survival tactic.

Is There a "Goldman Sachs and American Express" Future?

It's possible. But it won't look like what we expected three years ago. If a deal happens, it’ll likely involve a very complex "revenue sharing" agreement or a scenario where Amex only takes the cream of the crop—the highest-spending Apple Card users—leaving the rest in a sort of "bad bank" limbo.

Or, perhaps more likely, Apple decides to become its own bank. They already have the infrastructure for Apple Pay Later. They have the balance sheet. They don't really need Goldman or Amex if they're willing to take on the regulatory headache of being a bank. But Apple hates headaches. They want the profit without the paperwork.

Actionable Insights for Cardholders and Investors

If you're sitting there with an Apple Card or you're watching Goldman's stock, here is the ground truth:

  • Don't panic about your credit line: Even if the partnership moves from Goldman to American Express, your card isn't going to stop working overnight. These transitions take years to execute.
  • Watch the rewards: If Amex takes over, the biggest risk for users is a change in how "Daily Cash" is calculated or redeemed. Amex prefers their own "Membership Rewards" currency over cold hard cash.
  • Goldman is a "Buy" on the pivot: Most analysts see the exit from consumer banking as a positive for Goldman’s stock price. It removes a massive drag on earnings and lets them focus on what they actually do well: trading and advisory.
  • Check your credit score: If you have an Apple Card, Goldman has been reporting to credit bureaus aggressively. If the account moves to a new issuer, ensure the "age of account" transfers correctly so your credit score doesn't take a dip.

The Goldman Sachs and American Express saga is a reminder that brand names aren't magic. You can be the most prestigious investment bank in the world and still fail at basic credit card lending. It’s a humbling lesson for Wall Street and a fascinating drama for the rest of us to watch.

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If you are a merchant, keep an eye on the network. Apple Card currently runs on Mastercard. If it moves to American Express, your processing fees might actually go up, as Amex famously charges higher merchant rates than Mastercard or Visa. That’s a small detail that could have a huge ripple effect across the retail economy.

The next twelve months will be telling. Whether it’s a clean break or a messy divorce, the Goldman era of consumer banking is over. We’re just waiting to see who gets the house and who gets the debt.