If you’ve pulled up your portfolio recently and seen red next to ticker symbol KO, you aren’t alone. It’s a weird sight. Coca-Cola is usually the "old reliable" of the stock market—the kind of company that Warren Buffett buys and holds until the end of time. But lately, the fizz has gone a bit flat.
Shares have been wobbling. Even with a decent dividend, the price action has left a lot of people asking: why is coke stock down?
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Honestly, it’s not just one thing. It's a messy cocktail of a massive CEO transition, shifting consumer diets, and some cold, hard math involving the U.S. dollar. Let's break down what's actually moving the needle and whether this is a "buy the dip" moment or a genuine warning sign.
The Big Leadership Swap at the Top
Wall Street hates uncertainty. Right now, Coca-Cola is in the middle of a major handoff. Longtime CEO James Quincey is preparing to step down in March 2026, handing the keys over to the current COO, Henrique Braun.
Transitions are tricky. Quincey was the guy who slimmed Coke down, cutting the brand portfolio from 400 brands to about 200 "master brands." It worked. But now, investors are wondering if Braun is going to stay the course or try to make his own mark with expensive acquisitions.
And then there are the layoffs. Just this month, news broke that Coke is cutting about 75 corporate jobs at its Atlanta headquarters. That’s a small number for a giant, but it’s part of a "2026 restructuring initiative" that makes people nervous. When a healthy company starts cutting staff, it usually means they see some headwinds coming that we haven't fully felt yet.
The GLP-1 Factor: Are We Actually Drinking Less?
You can’t talk about food and beverage stocks in 2026 without talking about Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro. These GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are fundamentally changing how people eat and—more importantly—what they drink.
Data from groups like AlixPartners and Cornell University suggests that people on these medications cut their soft drink consumption by about 7%. That might sound small, but for a company the size of Coca-Cola, 7% of a core demographic is billions of dollars.
Coke's CFO, John Murphy, has been out there trying to calm everyone down. He basically says they haven't seen a "material impact" yet. But the market isn't entirely convinced. Even if people don't stop drinking soda entirely, they might switch to smaller cans or cheaper off-brands. Coke is pushing their "mini cans" (the 7.5-ounce ones) as a solution, but those haven't fully offset the volume concerns.
The Strong Dollar Is a Silent Killer
This is the boring part that actually matters the most. Coca-Cola is a global beast. They sell syrup in over 200 countries. When you sell a Sprite in Japan, you get paid in Yen. When you sell a Coke in London, you get paid in Pounds.
But Coke reports its earnings in U.S. Dollars.
When the dollar is super strong, those foreign profits look smaller when they're converted back. In late 2025, currency headwinds shaved about 6 percentage points off their earnings growth. Think about that. The company is actually growing, but the exchange rate makes it look like they're running in place. It's a "paper" loss in some ways, but it’s real enough to keep the stock price suppressed.
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Pricing Power has its Limits
For the last couple of years, Coke has been able to raise prices to fight inflation. We’ve all seen it at the grocery store. A 12-pack of cans costs way more than it did three years ago.
But you can only push the consumer so far. In the most recent earnings reports, "unit case volume"—which is basically the actual amount of liquid they sold—was flat or even down in some regions like North America and Asia Pacific.
Coke is growing their revenue because they're charging more, not because they're selling more. That is a risky strategy. Eventually, people just buy the store brand or stick to tap water. If volume doesn't pick back up, the "pricing power" story starts to fall apart.
Why Some People are Still Buying
Despite the dip, it’s not all doom and gloom.
- Dividend King status: They’ve raised their dividend for 63 straight years. That yield (around 2.9%) is hard to walk away from.
- Viral Wins: Believe it or not, a video of Lionel Messi mixing Sprite with wine recently added billions in perceived brand value.
- Alcohol Expansion: They are getting serious about "Ready-to-Drink" alcohol, partnering with brands like Jack Daniel's and Bacardi.
What to Do Next
If you're holding Coke or thinking about jumping in, don't just look at the daily price ticker. Watch the February 17 earnings report. That's when we'll get the final word on how the holiday season went and, more importantly, what the new CEO’s specific plan is for the rest of 2026.
Keep a close eye on Unit Case Volume. If revenue is up but volume is down, it means they are still relying on price hikes. If volume starts to climb again, it means the brand is actually winning back the Ozempic crowd and the budget-conscious shoppers.
Lastly, check the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). If the dollar starts to weaken, Coke stock will likely get an immediate "currency tailwind" boost without the company even having to sell an extra drop of soda.
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Actionable Insights:
- Monitor the CEO Handoff: Watch for Henrique Braun’s first public comments as incoming CEO in March to see if he pivots toward aggressive M&A.
- Evaluate Portfolio Diversification: Look at Coke's "BodyArmor" and "Fairlife" performance. These health-focused brands are the hedge against the GLP-1 weight-loss trend.
- Check the Dividend Yield: If the stock drops enough to push the yield over 3.2%, historical trends suggest it becomes a "strong buy" for value investors.