Moderna was the ultimate pandemic darling. Back in 2021, you couldn't go a single day without hearing the name. Now? The ticker MRNA looks like a jagged cliff on a chart. It’s been a brutal ride for anyone holding the bag from the triple-digit highs. Honestly, if you're looking at your portfolio and wondering why the heck Moderna stock is dropping—or why it can’t seem to catch a sustained break—you aren’t alone.
The short version is pretty simple: the world moved on from COVID-19 faster than Moderna’s bottom line could handle. But the long version is way more interesting. It involves a massive "reset" year in 2025, a desperate hunt for a "second act," and a company trying to shrink its way to profitability while spending billions to stay relevant.
The Pandemic Hangover Is Very Real
Let’s talk numbers for a second, because they're kinda staggering. In 2022, Moderna was raking in $18.4 billion. By the time we hit 2025, that revenue plummeted. We’re talking about a preliminary figure of around **$1.9 billion** for the full year of 2025.
That is a 90% drop in three years.
Wall Street hates uncertainty, but it hates "shrinking" even more. The fundamental reason for the downward pressure is that the "COVID-only" revenue engine ran out of gas. Retail vaccination rates in the U.S. fell by roughly 26% year-over-year in 2025. People just aren't lining up for boosters like they used to. Moderna basically went from being a money-printing machine to a biotech startup with a very expensive R&D habit.
The "10% Growth" Question
Earlier in January 2026, at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, CEO Stéphane Bancel and CFO James Mock tried to paint a rosier picture. They're projecting up to 10% revenue growth for 2026.
Now, on paper, growth is good. But here’s why the stock didn’t just moon on that news: 10% growth on a $1.9 billion base only gets you to about $2.1 billion. When your operating expenses are still sitting around **$4.9 billion to $5.2 billion**, you're still losing billions of dollars every year.
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Investors are looking at that math and doing a double-take. The company says they'll hit "cash breakeven" by 2028. That feels like a lifetime away in the stock market. Some analysts, like those at Jefferies, are openly skeptical. They think 2029 or 2030 is more realistic for breaking even. That gap—the "trust gap" between what management says and what the math shows—is a huge weight on the share price.
Why the Stock Is Actually So Volatile Right Now
It’s not just a slow bleed; it’s a rollercoaster. Just this month (January 2026), we saw the stock jump nearly 16-20% in a week before cooling off. Why?
- Aggressive Cost Cutting: They’re slashing $1 billion here, $200 million there. They’ve lowered their GAAP operating expense guidance. Investors like lean companies.
- The Debt Move: Moderna recently pulled $600 million from a $1.5 billion loan facility with Ares Management. It helps the cash balance (which looks healthy at $8.1 billion), but it’s still debt.
- Product Flops: Their RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, didn't exactly set the world on fire in 2025. It had "minimal sales," which was a gut punch to the narrative that Moderna could easily dominate the respiratory market.
The Pipeline Pivot: Hope or Hype?
If you're betting on Moderna, you aren't betting on COVID vaccines anymore. You're betting on the "Individualized Neoantigen Therapy" (INT). That’s the fancy name for their cancer vaccine they're working on with Merck.
Early 2026 is a massive "inflection point." We’re waiting on five-year data from a mid-stage melanoma trial. If those results are a home run, the stock might finally find a floor. If they're "just okay," the slide likely continues.
They’re also pushing a flu-COVID combination shot. The idea is simple: if people only have to get one needle, they might actually show up for it. But that isn't coming to save the 2026 revenue numbers; we’re looking at 2027 for that to really move the needle.
What Most People Get Wrong About MRNA
There's this idea that Moderna is "dying." It's not. They have $8.1 billion in cash. That's a massive war chest. The problem is that they are burning through it to fund a pipeline of 10+ prioritized programs.
The stock is dropping because the market has shifted from valuing Moderna as a "Growth/Tech" company to a "Value/Biotech" company. In the biotech world, you are only as good as your last trial result. And for Moderna, the last few years have been a series of "wait and see" moments.
Also, don't ignore the litigation. Bancel and his team are still fighting IP battles (like the Arbutus case). Legal fees and the threat of future royalties are small, annoying weights that keep the stock from soaring even when the news is "fine."
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re watching the ticker, here is the reality of the situation:
- Watch the 2028 Breakeven Target: Any news that suggests this date is sliding further back will cause a sell-off. Conversely, if they hit their 10% growth target in 2026, sentiment will flip.
- Oncology Is the Real Story: The respiratory business is a cash cow that’s shrinking. The cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) is the future. Follow the Phase 3 melanoma data readouts scheduled for later this year like a hawk.
- The "Margin of Safety": At current prices, Moderna trades at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio that’s lower than many of its biotech peers. It’s arguably "cheap" if you believe in the mRNA platform, but it’s a "value trap" if the RSV and Flu launches continue to underperform.
- Monitor Institutional Ownership: Wall Street is currently "cautiously optimistic." If big funds start dumping, the "retail" investors won't be able to hold the line.
The story of Moderna right now is a transition from a pandemic hero to a diversified biopharma firm. It’s a messy, expensive, and slow process. Until the revenue stops shrinking and the R&D starts producing new blockbusters, the stock is going to remain a battleground.
Next Steps for You:
Check the February 13, 2026 earnings call details. This is when Moderna will release its final audited numbers for 2025. Look specifically for the "Rest of World" sales figures; if international growth isn't offsetting the U.S. decline, the 2026 growth target might be in jeopardy. Evaluate your risk tolerance—biotech is high-stakes, and Moderna is currently the poster child for that volatility.