Links golf is a weird beast. It’s messy. You’ve got these massive dunes, weather that changes every six minutes, and bunkers that look like they were designed by someone who hates humanity. Because of that, looking at odds on the open golf isn’t like handicapping the Masters. At Augusta, you look at high ball flights and putting stats on bentgrass. At The Open Championship? You’re basically trying to predict how a ball will bounce off a baked-out fairway that’s as hard as a parking lot.
It’s unpredictable. That’s the charm.
If you’ve spent any time looking at the board for the 2026 edition, you’ve probably noticed the favorites aren't always who you'd expect. Sure, the usual suspects like Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy are going to be at the top of the list, but their prices are often way too short for a tournament where a single gust of wind can ruin a round. Honestly, betting on the favorite in this tournament feels like trying to catch a falling knife. You might get lucky, but you're probably just going to get hurt.
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The Weather Factor Everyone Ignores
Most people check the forecast once on Wednesday night and call it a day. Big mistake. The odds on the open golf are heavily influenced by the "wave" draw. If the morning starters get a calm breeze and the afternoon guys get hit with 30 mph gusts and sideways rain, the tournament is effectively over for half the field before Friday evening.
Remember 2010 at St Andrews? Rory shot a 63 in the opening round, then got absolutely hammered by the wind on Friday and shot an 80. The odds swung like a pendulum. Smart bettors aren't just looking at who is playing well; they’re looking at who is playing when. You have to be obsessive about the hourly wind charts. If you see a calm window for the early-late draw, those are the guys you want to target before the bookies realize the weather shift and slash the prices.
Why Course History Is Kind of a Lie
We love to talk about "links specialists." We think of guys like Shane Lowry or Padraig Harrington. But here’s the thing: every Open venue is its own planet. Carnoustie isn’t Troon. St Andrews isn't Royal Portrush. When you're scanning the odds on the open golf, don't just look at who finished top-10 last year. Look at who performs well in high-wind, low-spin environments.
The ball reacts differently here. It's not about carrying it 310 yards in the air. It’s about that "stinger" 2-iron that travels 240 yards and rolls another 60. Some of the best players in the world, guys who dominate on the PGA Tour’s "dartboard" courses, absolutely fall apart when they have to play a bump-and-run from 40 yards out.
The Mid-Tier Value Nobody Talks About
This is where the real money is made. The sweet spot for this tournament is usually in the 40-1 to 80-1 range. Think about Brian Harman in 2023. Nobody was screaming his name at the start of the week, but his odds were juicy because he’s a gritty, straight hitter who doesn't get rattled.
- Scrambling is King: If a guy can't save par from a pot bunker, he's dead in the water.
- Experience Matters: There's a reason older players often hang around the leaderboard. They've seen these conditions before. They don't panic when a "perfect" shot catches a slope and ends up in the gorse.
- Current Form vs. "The Vibe": Sometimes a player is flushing it on the range but their head isn't right for the grind of a major. Links golf is 50% mental toughness.
When you see a guy like Tyrrell Hatton or Tommy Fleetwood hovering at 30-1, you have to ask yourself: is the price fair? Often, the "home crowd" tax inflates the odds for British and Irish players. You're paying a premium because everyone wants the fairytale ending. Sometimes the better value is the random Aussie or South African who grew up playing in the wind and doesn't have the weight of a nation on their shoulders.
The Problem With Modern Analytics
Data is great. Strokes Gained is a revolution. But most of these models are built on data from courses in Florida or Texas. They don't account for the fact that at The Open, the "correct" play is often to hit it away from the pin.
I’ve seen guys with incredible "Strokes Gained: Approach" numbers get absolutely dismantled by the pot bunkers at Royal Birkdale or Muirfield. Why? Because their miss is a high fade that gets caught by the wind. On a normal tour stop, that’s a bunker shot they can spin. On a links course, that's a buried lie in a wall of sod.
Bookmaker Tactics to Watch Out For
The houses aren't stupid. They know people love a longshot at The Open. You’ll see "each-way" terms that look amazing—maybe they're paying out the top 10 or 12 places. But look closely at the odds. Often, they’ve shaved a few points off the top of the favorites to cover that liability.
If you're looking at odds on the open golf, compare the "Win Only" markets to the "Each Way" markets. Sometimes you're better off taking a slightly lower price on a betting exchange where the liquidity is higher. Also, watch out for the "Top Debutant" or "Top Amateur" markets. These are often where the real inefficiency lies because the public isn't paying attention to the kid who just won the Silver Medal at the Amateur Championship, even though his game is perfectly suited for the dunes.
Making the Call
Look, at the end of the day, you can do all the research in the world and still get beaten by a rogue rain squall. That’s the beauty of it. But if you want to be smart about how you interpret the odds on the open golf, you have to stop thinking like a fan and start thinking like a meteorologist and an architect.
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Don't chase the big names just because they're on the poster. Look for the guys who thrive in chaos. Look for the players who embrace the weirdness. Because on Sunday afternoon, when the wind is howling and the leaders are shaking, it’s not the guy with the prettiest swing who wins—it’s the guy who survived.
Actionable Steps for Your Strategy
- Monitor the Weather Wave: Wait until the tee times are released. Identify the "lucky" half of the draw that avoids the peak afternoon winds. Focus your early bets there.
- Focus on Scrambling Stats: Go to the official PGA or DP World Tour stats pages. Filter for "Scrambling" and "Sand Saves." The Open is won around the greens, not off the tee.
- Check European Tour Experience: Players who regularly play the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship or the Scottish Open have a massive advantage. Their "links IQ" is higher than those who only fly in once a year.
- Hedging is Your Friend: Because of the volatility, consider taking two or three players in that 50-1 range rather than putting everything on a single favorite.
- Ignore the Hype: If a player is being talked about as a "sure thing" by every pundit on TV, their price is likely depressed. Look for the quiet performers who had a solid top-20 finish the week before but aren't making headlines.