Betting on a links golfer is basically a lesson in humility. You spend months looking at DataGolf, tracking strokes gained off the tee, and obsessing over who has the best short game, and then a coastal gale rolls in off the Irish Sea at 40 mph and ruins everyone's par-5 scoring. The odds to win the Open Championship are live right now, and if you look at them through the lens of a standard PGA Tour event in the Midwest, you're going to lose money.
Links golf is different. It's weird.
The ball bounces differently on fescue than it does on bentgrass. If you aren't ready for a 4-iron that rolls sixty yards, you aren't ready for Royal Birkdale, St. Andrews, or Royal Portrush. Most people look at the top of the board—the guys with the shortest odds—and assume the favorite is a lock because they've been playing well in Florida. That’s a mistake. The Open is the only Major where the weather isn't just a factor; it is the entire story.
Decoding the Odds to Win the Open Championship and the Links Bias
When the oddsmakers at shops like Westgate SuperBook or FanDuel release their lines, they’re looking at a few specific things. Primarily, they want to know who is hot. If Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy is coming off a win, their odds to win the Open Championship are going to be squeezed. You’ll see them sitting at +700 or +800.
That’s terrible value.
Think about it. In a field of 156 golfers, where a single bad "draw" (teeing off in the afternoon when the wind kicks up vs. the morning when it's calm) can add four strokes to your scorecard, taking anyone at single-digit odds is a massive risk. History tells us that the Claret Jug often goes to the guy who can scramble from a pot bunker, not necessarily the guy who hits it the furthest.
Take Brian Harman at Royal Liverpool in 2023. He was a massive longshot. His odds were floating around +12500 before the tournament started. Nobody was talking about him. But he possessed the one trait that breaks the betting model: he was a statistical outlier in putting on slow, coastal greens. While the "ball strikers" were hitting greens and three-putting because they couldn't handle the pace, Harman was draining everything.
Why the Favorites Often Fail
The pressure of the Open is unique. It’s the oldest championship in the world. There’s a psychological weight to it that you don't find at the PGA Championship. If you look at the odds to win the Open Championship, you’ll notice that the betting public loves the "narrative" play. They want to see Rory finally get his next Major. They want to see Tiger Woods defy physics one more time.
But the odds reflect the public's heart, not always the reality of the course.
Vegas knows that fans will bet on Tiger regardless of his form, so they keep his odds lower than they should be. That’s called "liability." It doesn't mean he has a better chance of winning; it just means the house doesn't want to get cleaned out if the impossible happens. If you’re looking for a real edge, you have to look past the first five names on the list.
The "Coastal Specialist" Factor
You ever notice how certain guys just show up when they smell salt air? Shane Lowry is the poster child for this. His game is built for the grind. When you see his odds to win the Open Championship sitting at +2500 or +3000, that’s usually where the smart money is going.
You need to look at the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour) stats, not just the PGA Tour ones. Guys who play the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship every year have a "feel" for this style of golf that Americans often lack. They know how to hit the "stinger"—that low-trajectory shot that stays under the wind. If a player can't flight their ball down, they are dead in the water at an Open.
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- The Weather Draw: This is the biggest "hidden" variable. Check the forecast 48 hours before the first tee time. If there is a massive discrepancy between morning and afternoon wind speeds, the odds for the "lucky" half of the draw become instant gold.
- Scrambling from Sand: Links bunkers are not like the "beach" bunkers at Shadow Creek. They are literal pits of despair. A player’s "Sand Save Percentage" is a critical stat to check before placing a bet.
- Experience: Rookies rarely win the Open. It takes years to learn how to read the undulations of a fairway that looks like the surface of the moon.
How to Find Value in the Mid-Range
The "Sweet Spot" for betting on this tournament is usually between +4000 and +8000. This is where you find the seasoned veterans or the gritty Europeans who have the game for links but aren't superstars in the US.
Look at players like Tommy Fleetwood or Tyrrell Hatton. They almost always have shorter odds to win the Open Championship than they do for the US Open. Why? Because the markets recognize their links pedigree. However, if they have a rough couple of weeks in the States right before the Open, their price might drift out to +5000. That’s when you strike.
Golf is a game of variance. The Open Championship maximizes that variance.
Honestly, the best way to approach the odds is to build a "portfolio." Instead of putting $50 on one guy, you're better off putting $10 on five different guys who all fit the profile: high scrambling, low ball flight, and previous success in the UK or Ireland. It's a survival contest.
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Don't Ignore the "Old Guard"
The Open is famously kind to older golfers. Remember Tom Watson at Turnberry in 2009? He was 59 years old and was one putt away from winning the whole thing. Greg Norman had a similar run at Birkdale in 2008 at age 53.
The reason is simple: links golf is a chess match. It isn't about power. It’s about knowing where not to hit it. Most modern PGA Tour courses reward "bomb and gouge"—hit it as far as you can, and if you miss the fairway, just hack it out of the rough. Do that at an Open, and you’ll find your ball in a gorse bush or a burn. You'll be taking a drop and staring at a double bogey.
When you see a veteran with odds to win the Open Championship at +15000, don't just laugh it off. If they have a high "Golfing IQ," they can stay in the hunt while the young guns are busy hitting 350-yard drives into the ocean.
Actionable Strategy for Betting the Open
If you're going to dive into the markets, you need a process. Don't just follow the "expert" picks on TV. They are often biased toward the big names that drive ratings.
First, ignore the "World Ranking" for a second. Look at "Strokes Gained: Around the Green" specifically on fescue surfaces. Second, check the "Three-Putt Avoidance" stats. The greens at the Open are often huge and slow because if they were fast, the wind would literally blow the ball off the green. Being able to lag putt from 60 feet is a mandatory skill.
Finally, watch the "Scottish Open" the week before. It’s the best dress rehearsal. If a player looks comfortable there, their odds to win the Open Championship are probably going to drop fast, so try to lock in your bets before that Sunday finish.
Next Steps for Savvy Bettors:
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- Monitor the Weather: Use an app like Windfinder for the specific coordinates of the course. If a "blow" is coming on Friday afternoon, fade the players teeing off then.
- Look for "Each-Way" Value: Many sportsbooks offer "top 8" or "top 10" payouts. In a high-variance event like this, an each-way bet on a +6000 longshot can still net a massive profit even if they don't win the trophy.
- Track Tee Times: As soon as the pairings are announced, compare them against the hourly wind forecast. This is the single most effective way to beat the closing line.
- Analyze Amateur Success: Sometimes, a high-ranking amateur with links experience (like a former British Amateur winner) can provide insane value in the "Top Amateur" or "Make the Cut" markets.
The Claret Jug is the most elusive trophy in sports because the course is a living, breathing opponent. The odds to win the Open Championship are just a starting point. Your job is to find the golfer who isn't just playing the field, but is comfortable playing the elements. When everyone else is complaining about the rain and the bunkers, look for the guy who is smiling. That's your winner.