We’ve all seen it. You’re at a networking event or maybe just scrolling through LinkedIn, and you see someone pitching an idea that is so fundamentally broken it makes your teeth ache. They’ve got the energy. They’ve got the polished deck. But they are, quite literally, one who’s doomed to fail because they’re sprinting in the wrong direction and refuse to look at the map. It’s not about a lack of passion. Passion is actually often the problem. It blinds people.
Failure isn't always a surprise. In the venture capital world, there’s a concept called "The Walking Dead." These are startups that haven't technically gone bankrupt yet, but they have no path to a meaningful exit or even profitability. They just linger.
The Psychology of the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Ever heard of the Concorde? The supersonic jet was a marvel of engineering, but it was a financial disaster. The British and French governments kept pouring money into it because they had already spent so much. They were trapped. This is the hallmark of one who’s doomed to fail: the inability to cut losses.
When you’ve spent three years and $50,000 on a product that nobody wants, it’s physically painful to admit the market has spoken. You start telling yourself stories. "The users just don't get it yet," or "We're just one feature away from a breakthrough." Honestly, it’s usually a lie.
Psychologists call this "escalation of commitment." It’s the same reason people stay in bad relationships or hold onto a tanking stock. You aren't just losing money; you’re losing your ego. To stop is to admit you were wrong. And for a certain type of high-achiever, being wrong is worse than being broke.
Why One Who’s Doomed to Fail Ignores Negative Signals
Success requires a weird mix of delusional optimism and cold, hard realism. If you’re too realistic, you’ll never start. If you’re too delusional, you’ll never pivot. Most people lean way too hard into the delusion.
Take the infamous case of Quibi. They had billions of dollars. They had Jeffrey Katzenberg and Meg Whitman. They had every Hollywood star you can name. But they were one who’s doomed to fail from day one because they ignored how people actually consume media. They thought people wanted 10-minute "quick bites" of high-production drama on their phones without the ability to take screenshots or share clips.
- They ignored the social nature of modern viewing.
- They fought against the "meme-ability" of content.
- They assumed they could force a new habit onto a reluctant public.
When the feedback started coming in—or rather, when the lack of signups started showing—they didn't shift. They doubled down on the original vision until the money ran out. It was a masterclass in ignoring the "No."
The Toxic "Grind" Culture Trap
There’s this weird obsession with "hustle." We see it on Instagram and TikTok constantly. "Work while they sleep." "Don't take no for an answer."
This is dangerous advice.
If you are digging a hole in the wrong place, digging faster doesn't help. It just makes the hole deeper. A person who believes that pure effort can overcome a bad business model is effectively one who’s doomed to fail. You can't outwork a math problem. If your customer acquisition cost is $50 and your customer lifetime value is $30, you aren't an entrepreneur; you're a philanthropist for Facebook Ads.
📖 Related: S\&P 500 30 year chart: Why the Long View Is the Only One That Actually Works
Real experts, like Peter Drucker, often pointed out that there is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. But try telling that to someone who just bought a "CEO Mindset" hoodie.
Spotting the Red Flags Early
How do you know if you're the one heading for a cliff? It’s usually in the data you choose to ignore.
- The "Pivot" that isn't a pivot. If you keep changing your target audience but your product stays exactly the same, you aren't pivoting. You're just looking for someone—anyone—to tell you you're pretty.
- Hiring for ego, not gaps. Doomed founders hire people who agree with them. They want a fan club, not a board of directors. If no one in your inner circle has told you "this is a bad idea" in the last month, you’re in a vacuum.
- The "Wait for the Big Launch" Strategy. Most successful things start small and messy. If you’re waiting for a massive, "perfect" launch day to see if people like your stuff, you’re likely one who’s doomed to fail. You should have been getting rejected by customers months ago.
The Institutional Bias Toward Failure
Sometimes it isn't even the individual's fault. Large corporations are designed to produce one who’s doomed to fail scenarios through sheer inertia.
Look at Kodak. They actually invented the digital camera. An engineer named Steven Sasson built the first one in 1975. It was the size of a toaster. But Kodak’s entire business was built on film. They saw the digital camera not as a future, but as a threat to their current profit margins.
They weren't stupid. They were just trapped in a system that rewarded short-term film sales over long-term survival. By the time they tried to switch, the world had moved on. They were doomed by their own previous success.
Actionable Steps to Avoid the Doomed Path
If you feel like you’re spinning your wheels, you need to break the cycle immediately. This isn't about working harder; it's about changing the inputs.
Stop asking for opinions and start asking for commitments. Friends will lie to you. They’ll tell you your idea is "great." Don't believe them. Ask them to pre-order. Ask them to sign a letter of intent. As soon as money or time is on the line, the "great idea" people will suddenly find excuses. That’s your real data.
Set a "Kill Date." Decide today what metrics you need to hit by a specific date. If you haven't hit them by then, you stop. Period. No "just one more month." This protects you from the sunk cost fallacy.
Find a "Red Team." In military and cybersecurity contexts, a red team is a group specifically tasked with finding the flaws in a plan. You need a red team. Find three people who don't care about your feelings and ask them to tell you why your project will go bankrupt. Listen to them. Don't defend yourself. Just take notes.
Optimize for Learning, Not Winning. The person one who’s doomed to fail is obsessed with the win. The person who eventually succeeds is obsessed with the lesson. If a project fails but you learned exactly why it failed, you’ve actually gained an asset. If it fails and you blame the economy, the government, or "bad luck," you’ve learned nothing. You'll just do it again.
Failure is a data point. It’s only a doom sentence if you refuse to read the output. Change the feedback loop, and you change the outcome.