Drafting 18-year-old kids is basically like trying to predict the weather ten years from now using nothing but a mood ring and a compass. It's messy. Looking back at the 2015 MLB draft results, it’s clear that some teams had a crystal ball while others were just throwing darts in a dark room. You’ve got to remember the context of that June. The scouting world was transitioning. Analytical models were starting to scream louder than the old-school scouts who cared about "the sound of the bat" or "the way a kid wears his hat."
The 2015 class was weirdly top-heavy with shortstops. It was also the year that proved college performers often have a safer floor than high school projects, though the "projects" are the ones who usually end up on Hall of Fame trajectories. If you look at the names called in the first round, it’s a graveyard of "what-ifs" mixed with genuine superstars who are now the faces of the league.
✨ Don't miss: Where Do The Tampa Bay Rays Play: What Most People Get Wrong
The Dansby Swanson Era and the Top of the Board
The Arizona Diamondbacks had the first pick. They went with Dansby Swanson out of Vanderbilt. It made sense at the time. Swanson was a polished, winning shortstop from a powerhouse program. He was the "safe" pick. But the 2015 MLB draft results took a sharp turn into "bizarre" territory just months later when Arizona traded Swanson to the Atlanta Braves in the infamous Shelby Miller deal. Think about that. A team drafted a guy first overall and shipped him away before he even saw a Big League pitch. It’s one of those front-office moves that still makes Diamondbacks fans want to stare into the sun.
Alex Bregman went second to the Houston Astros. Honestly, Bregman is probably the defining player of this draft class. He was a dirt-dog infielder from LSU who many thought might have to move to second base. Instead, he became a cornerstone of a dynasty. The Astros were in the middle of their "Process" (though they didn't call it that), and snagging Bregman at number two was the ultimate validation of their scouting department’s ability to identify high-floor, high-ceiling college bats.
Then you have Brendan Rodgers at three to the Rockies. Huge power. High school phenom. He’s had a decent career, but compared to Bregman? It’s a different universe. This is where the draft gets tricky. The gap between a "solid starter" and an "MVP candidate" is often just a matter of who handles the grind of the minor leagues better.
Missing the Forest for the Trees: The Big Whiffs
Every draft has them. The 2015 MLB draft results are littered with guys who were "can’t-miss" and then, well, they missed. Dillon Tate went fourth to the Rangers. High-velocity righty from UCSB. He never really found his footing as a starter and eventually bounced around as a reliever. When you spend a top-five pick on a pitcher, you're looking for an ace. You aren’t looking for a middle-relief guy who gets traded three times.
The Boston Red Sox took Andrew Benintendi at seven. For a while, that looked like the steal of the century. He was a fast-mover. He helped them win a World Series in 2018. But his trajectory tapered off. He’s been a journeyman lately. It’s not a "bust" by any means, but when you see who went after him, you start to wonder.
The Pitching Panic
Teams were terrified of high school arms in 2015. They should’ve been. Looking at the results, the success rate for prep pitchers in the first round was abysmal.
- Ashe Russell (Royals, 21st overall): Never made it. Personal reasons and injuries derailed a promising career.
- Beau Burrows (Tigers, 22nd overall): Struggled to find a consistent role.
- Brady Aiken (Indians, 17th overall): This was the comeback story that wasn't. Aiken was the unsigned number one pick from 2014. Cleveland took a gamble on his elbow. It didn't pay off. He never reached the majors.
It's a brutal reminder that a pitcher's UCL is basically a ticking time bomb. Teams in 2015 were still trying to figure out how to manage workloads, but the data just wasn't as refined as it is in 2026.
Walker Buehler and the Art of the Value Pick
The Los Angeles Dodgers are annoying. They’re annoying because they consistently find the best players while picking at the back of the round. In the 2015 MLB draft results, the Dodgers snagged Walker Buehler at 24th overall.
Why did he fall? Medicals. Everyone knew he needed Tommy John surgery. Most teams passed because they didn't want to wait two years for a return on investment. The Dodgers looked at the long game. They took him, let him heal, and ended up with a guy who, when healthy, is arguably the most dominant postseason pitcher of his generation.
It highlights a fundamental truth about the draft: Patience is a competitive advantage. If you can afford to wait, you can steal elite talent from the teams that are desperate for immediate help.
Where the Real Value Was Hiding
If you want to see where the 2015 draft actually changed the landscape of baseball, you have to look past the first round. The mid-rounds were a gold mine.
- Paul DeJong (Cardinals, 4th round): A converted catcher/infielder from Illinois State who turned into a power-hitting shortstop.
- Brandon Lowe (Rays, 3rd round): A Maryland kid who became one of the best power-hitting second basemen in the American League.
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals, 3rd round): Elite defense. High energy. A guy who stayed in the league because of his glove even when the bat went cold.
- Willie Calhoun (Dodgers, 4th round): A pure hitter who was eventually the centerpiece of the Yu Darvish trade.
The Cardinals, in particular, had a monster draft. They’ve always been good at identifying "safe" college players who have one elite tool. In 2015, they nailed it. They found guys who could contribute to the big league roster within three years, which is the gold standard for draft efficiency.
The Shortstop Gold Mine
I mentioned earlier that this draft was heavy on shortstops. It wasn't just Swanson and Bregman (who eventually moved to third). You had Kevin Newman (19th), Richie Martin (20th), and Kyle Holder (30th).
The 2015 MLB draft results showed a shift in how teams valued the position. They stopped looking for the "defense-only" wizard and started looking for athletes who could hit well enough to stay in the lineup, knowing they could move them to second or third if the range didn't hold up. This was the beginning of the "Shortstop Revolution" we see today where every kid in the first round seems to play that position.
Why We Still Talk About 2015
This draft was the bridge between the old world and the new. We saw the rise of the Astros' data-driven approach. We saw the Dodgers' financial might allowing them to take risks on injured players. We also saw the end of the "prep pitcher" obsession for several years.
The biggest takeaway from the 2015 MLB draft results is that "safety" is an illusion. Dansby Swanson was the safest pick in the draft, and he was traded before he did anything for the team that picked him. Alex Bregman was a "safe" college bat who turned into a superstar.
📖 Related: Why Liga de Quito Libertadores History Still Matters in South American Football
The difference between a bust and a legend often comes down to the player's ability to adjust once the league figures out their weaknesses. In 2015, the guys who succeeded weren't necessarily the ones with the loudest tools—they were the ones with the best approach.
Analyzing the "What Ifs"
What if the Phillies had taken Alex Bregman at number 10 instead of Cornelius Randolph? Randolph never made it. Bregman became a multi-time All-Star. Those are the types of decisions that cost General Managers their jobs.
What if the Reds hadn't taken Tyler Stephenson at 11? They actually did okay there—Stephenson became a solid big-league catcher. But they passed on Pete Alonso (who went in 2016, but was available in 2015 for teams looking at college power). Wait, actually, Alonso was a 2016 guy, but the 2015 class had guys like Ryan Mountcastle (36th) who were available late.
Teams that prioritized "contact skills" over "raw power" in the 2015 first round generally regretted it. The game was about to enter the "Launch Angle" era, and the guys who could naturally lift the ball were the ones who thrived as the 2010s came to a close.
Lessons for Today's Front Offices
When you look back at these results, you see a few patterns that modern teams have finally internalized.
First: Stop overthinking the medicals if the talent is top-five caliber. Walker Buehler is the blueprint. If a guy has "it," you draft him and fix the arm later.
Second: College production in the SEC or ACC is the best predictor of MLB success. Bregman (LSU), Swanson (Vandy), and Benintendi (Arkansas) all made it. High schoolers like Kolby Allard or Ashe Russell were much riskier bets that didn't provide the same ROI.
Third: The draft isn't won in the first round. It’s won in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds where you find the Brandon Lowes and Paul DeJongs of the world. Those are the players who provide the "surplus value" that allows teams to spend big in free agency.
To really grasp how your favorite team fared, you shouldn't just look at the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of the first-round pick. You have to look at the total "big league service time" generated by the entire 40-man draft class. That's the real metric of success.
Your Next Steps for Analyzing Draft Trends
If you're a die-hard baseball fan or a fantasy baseball nerd, don't just stop at the names. Go into the weeds.
- Check the Baseball-Reference draft play-by-play for 2015 and sort by Career WAR. You'll be shocked at how many names in the top 20 for that year were taken after the 100th pick.
- Compare the 2015 class to the 2016 class. You’ll see a massive jump in how teams valued "spin rate" and "exit velocity," which were just starting to become mainstream terms back then.
- Look at the trade history of the 2015 first rounders. It’s a fascinating look at how teams use draft capital as currency rather than just building blocks.
- Follow the careers of the "failed" prospects. Many of them are now coaching in the minors or working in front offices, bringing the lessons of their 2015 experience to the next generation of players.
The draft is a gamble, plain and simple. But by studying the 2015 MLB draft results, you can see the fingerprints of the modern game being formed. It was the year that scouts and spreadsheets finally started speaking the same language, even if they didn't always agree on the results.