Why the 2020 Popular Vote Results Still Matter Today

Why the 2020 Popular Vote Results Still Matter Today

Ever feel like the 2020 election was basically a decade ago? It's weird how time works. But honestly, the 2020 popular vote results aren't just a bunch of dusty numbers. They represent a massive, messy, and historic moment when more Americans showed up to the polls than ever before in our lifetimes.

It was high stakes. The energy was electric, and frankly, a bit exhausting. But if you look at the raw data, it tells a story about where we've been and where we're going.

Let’s get the big numbers out of the way. Joe Biden didn't just win; he set a record. He pulled in 81,283,501 votes. That is 51.3% of the total pie.

Donald Trump didn't exactly have a small showing, though. He garnered 74,223,975 votes, or 46.8%.

That’s a gap of about 7 million people. To put that in perspective, imagine every single person in the city of Los Angeles and Chicago voting for one guy over the other. It’s a huge margin in terms of humans, yet because of the Electoral College, the actual win felt much tighter in the states that "mattered."

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Beyond the Big Two

Most people kind of forget that other folks were on the ballot too. Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate, actually did okay for a third-party run, snagging about 1.8 million votes. Howie Hawkins from the Green Party got around 400,000.

Why the Turnout Was So Wild

We saw 66.8% of eligible voters cast a ballot. That is the highest turnout since 1900. Think about that. We haven't seen that kind of participation since people were literally driving horses and buggies to the polls.

So, what changed?

  1. Mail-in voting was everywhere. Because of the pandemic, states made it way easier to vote from your couch.
  2. Polarization was at a peak. People weren't just voting "for" someone; they were often voting "against" the other side with a vengeance.
  3. New voters showed up. Pew Research noted that 19% of 2020 voters didn't even vote in 2016 or 2018. They just sat those out.

The Demographic Shift

If you want to understand the 2020 popular vote results, you have to look at who was voting. It wasn't just the same old groups.

Biden made huge gains in the suburbs. If you live in a cul-de-sac, you probably saw it firsthand. He went from Hillary Clinton’s 45% share in those areas to 54%. That’s a massive swing in just four years.

Trump, on the other hand, did something sort of unexpected. He actually grew his support among Hispanic voters, especially those without a college degree. In Florida and South Texas, his numbers jumped significantly. It showed that "Hispanic voters" aren't some monolith that just votes Democrat by default.

The Age Gap

Gen Z and Millennials were basically the engine for Biden’s popular vote lead. They favored him by about 20 points. Meanwhile, Boomers and Gen X were pretty much split down the middle.

The "Blue Wall" and the Narrow Margins

While Biden had a 7-million-vote lead nationally, the election was actually decided by about 124,000 people.

Wait, what?

Yeah. If you take the combined margin in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, it’s a tiny fraction of the total vote. That’s the quirk of our system. You can win the popular vote by millions and still almost lose the whole thing because of a few thousand people in a few specific counties.

What This Means for You Right Now

Looking back at these certified totals helps us realize that the "silent majority" isn't really a thing. Everyone is loud now. Everyone is participating.

If you're trying to make sense of current politics, keep these takeaways in mind:

  • Check the certification. These numbers were vetted, audited, and certified by every state. If someone gives you a weird number that doesn't match the 81.2m vs 74.2m split, they're probably looking at incomplete or debunked data.
  • Watch the suburbs. The 2020 results showed that the suburbs are the new frontline. They aren't reliably "red" anymore.
  • Don't ignore the third party. Even though they didn't win states, the 2% that went to Jorgensen and others could have flipped those tight swing states if they'd picked a side.

If you want to dig deeper, the best place to look is the Official FEC Election Results or the Cook Political Report’s Popular Vote Tracker. They have the granular, county-by-county data that shows exactly how these shifts happened.

Take a look at your own county's results from 2020. Compare them to 2016. You might be surprised at how much the ground shifted right under your feet.