Why the Rich Hill Draft Chart is Quietly Taking Over the NFL

You’ve probably seen the old charts. For decades, the NFL draft was ruled by one piece of paper: the Jimmy Johnson chart. It was the "gold standard," but it was also kinda clunky. If you were a GM in 1992, it worked great. But by the time the 2020s rolled around, it felt like using a paper map to navigate a city that had built ten new highways. That's where the rich hill draft chart comes in. It’s the modern answer to a question every fan asks during late April: "Wait, why did we only get a fourth-round pick for moving back ten spots?"

The reality is that NFL trades have changed. The way teams value late-round depth versus elite blue-chip talent has shifted. If you’re still looking at the Jimmy Johnson model, you’re looking at a relic.

The Problem with Jimmy Johnson’s Math

Jimmy Johnson’s chart was basically built on vibes and Mike McCoy’s oil industry data. It assigned 3,000 points to the first overall pick. By the time you got to the end of the first round, the value dropped like a stone. It was designed to make trading up for a superstar feel expensive.

But then the rookie wage scale happened. Suddenly, early first-rounders weren't just talented; they were the only "cheap" superstars left.

The rich hill draft chart was born because folks realized that teams weren't actually trading according to Jimmy's math anymore. Rich Hill, a writer for Pats Pulpit, looked at the actual trades happening in the real world and reverse-engineered the math. He didn't decide what a pick should be worth. He looked at what GMs were actually paying.

Why Rich Hill is Different

The biggest shift is the scale. Instead of starting at 3,000, the Rich Hill model starts at 1,000 for the first overall pick. It sounds like a small change, but it makes the late rounds much easier to calculate.

More importantly, it doesn't devalue the middle rounds as aggressively. In the old model, a fourth-round pick was basically worth a bag of footballs. In the Rich Hill version, those mid-round picks hold their weight because teams have realized that having five chances at a starter is often better than one chance at a star.

Real Examples: When the Charts Clash

Let’s look at how this plays out on draft day. Take a classic "trade down" scenario.

If a team wants to move from pick 20 to pick 10, the Jimmy Johnson chart might suggest they need to give up a second and a third. The rich hill draft chart might show that just a second-rounder is plenty. Why? Because the modern market has "flattened" the value. Teams are smarter now. They know the difference between the 10th-best player and the 20th-best player isn't always as big as the "points" suggest.

• Pick 1: 1,000 points (Rich Hill) vs 3,000 points (Johnson)
• Pick 32: 184 points (Rich Hill) vs 590 points (Johnson)
• Pick 64: 80 points (Rich Hill) vs 270 points (Johnson)

If you do the division, you'll see the ratios are different. Under Johnson’s rules, the first pick is worth 5x the 32nd pick. Under Hill’s, it’s about 5.4x. It seems close, but as you get into the second and third rounds, the gap widens. Johnson’s chart makes those late-second-rounders look like junk mail. Hill’s chart treats them like actual currency.

Why GMs Like Bill Belichick Favored Modern Models

It’s no secret that the Patriots under Bill Belichick were the kings of the "trade down." They didn't do it because they hated stars. They did it because they were playing the math.

They saw that the rich hill draft chart more accurately reflected the "success rate" of picks. If you use an antiquated chart to trade with a team using a modern one, someone is getting fleeced. Most of the time, the team trading down wins. They accumulate more "lottery tickets," and because the Rich Hill model values those mid-round tickets more accurately, it justifies the move.

Honestly, if you're a fan trying to predict a trade, you should have both tabs open. But if you want to know what the "smart" teams are doing? You look at the Hill numbers.

The Compensatory Pick Factor

One thing that really messed up the old charts was the introduction of tradeable compensatory picks. For a long time, you couldn't move those extra picks you got for losing free agents. Once that changed, the "market" for picks became much more fluid. The rich hill draft chart was one of the first to really bake these into the valuation in a way that made sense for 32-team parity.

The "Tax" of Trading Up

Even with a better chart, you still have to pay a "quarterback tax." If there’s a guy like Drake Maye or Caleb Williams sitting there, the charts go out the window.

A team isn't going to trade the top pick just because the points match. They want a premium. This is what we call the "negotiation tax." The rich hill draft chart gives you the baseline, but the desperation of a team needing a QB adds a 20% or 30% surcharge.

I've seen trades where the "winner" on the chart actually lost the trade because the player they moved up for busted. That’s the limitation of any chart. It values the slot, not the human.

How to Use the Rich Hill Chart Yourself

If you’re sitting on the couch this April, don't just listen to the TV analysts. They often use the old Johnson numbers because they're "tradition."

1. Find the 1,000-point scale: If the top pick is 1,000, you're looking at the Rich Hill model.
2. Look for the "Cliffs": Notice where the value drops. Usually, there's a big dip after pick 16 and another after pick 50.
3. Compare the Rounds: See if a team's two third-rounders actually equal their one second-rounder. In the Rich Hill model, they often do.

The beauty of the rich hill draft chart is its simplicity. It’s not trying to be a complex algorithm. It’s just a mirror held up to the NFL’s current trade market.

Actionable Insights for Draft Day

Next time your team is on the clock and the phone rings, keep these things in mind:

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• Check the model: If the trade looks like a massive "overpay" on your screen, the team is likely using a more modern valuation like the Hill model which values those mid-round picks higher.
• Watch the "Value Clusters": Teams often trade into specific ranges (like picks 35-45) because the Rich Hill model identifies those as high-value, low-cost areas.
• Don't ignore the future: Most charts, including Hill's, discount future picks by one full round. A future first is valued like a current second.

The draft isn't just a talent show; it's a marketplace. And in today's NFL, the rich hill draft chart is the currency everyone is actually spending, whether they admit it or not.