The watch world is weird right now. If you’ve been following the market cycles—what some insiders are calling the watch industry season 3—you know the vibe has shifted from the "crypto-bro" gold rush of 2021 into something way more sober and, honestly, more interesting. We aren't in the hype-fueled stratosphere anymore.
Prices for "hype" steel sports watches from the big three—Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Rolex—have cooled significantly from their 2022 peaks. According to the Subdial Market Index, which tracks the top 50 most traded luxury watches by value, we've seen a steady correction that isn't just a "dip," but a fundamental restructuring of how people buy timepieces.
Welcome to the third act.
What's Actually Happening in Watch Industry Season 3
So, why call it "Season 3"?
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Think of Season 1 as the pre-2020 era. It was a hobby for nerds. You could walk into an Authorized Dealer (AD), see a Submariner in the case, and maybe even get a tiny discount if you were nice to the salesperson. Season 2 was the madness. 2020 to early 2022. Stimulus checks, Instagram flex culture, and the "investment" mindset turned every GMT-Master II into a liquid asset better than a tech stock.
But now?
We’re in the middle of watch industry season 3, a period defined by the "return to connoisseurship." It’s a fancy way of saying people are actually looking at the movements again instead of just the resale value. The gray market is bleeding. Dealers who bought high on credit are sweating.
It's a buyer's market, sort of.
While the secondary market for a Rolex Daytona 116500LN has dropped from its $50k heights to a more "reasonable" (though still expensive) $25k-$30k range, retail prices are actually going up. Rolex, Cartier, and Omega have all implemented price hikes over the last 18 months to combat inflation and currency fluctuations.
The gap is closing.
The Rise of the Independents
One of the coolest things about this current phase is the shift toward independent watchmaking.
Brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F are no longer "fringe" picks. They are the new endgame. Collectors are tired of the "waitlist game" at the big boutiques. They want soul. They want hand-finishing.
Take the recent results from the Geneva Watch Auction: XVII. You’re seeing pieces from Philippe Dufour and Roger Smith command prices that make some vintage Patek references look like bargains. It’s not just about the brand name anymore; it’s about the person who sat at the bench and filed the bridges.
Actually, let's talk about the Cartier renaissance.
Cartier has absolutely dominated the "lifestyle" segment of watch industry season 3. While some brands are struggling with their identity, Cartier leaned into its heritage. The Tank, the Santos, the Crash—these aren't "tool watches." They are pieces of jewelry that tell time, and in an era where everyone is wearing a Patagonia vest, a gold Tank Louis Cartier feels like a defiant, stylish choice.
Retail Reality and the Waitlist Myth
Is the waitlist dead?
Not exactly. But it's definitely sick.
In this new season, "allocation" is the word of the day. Morgan Stanley’s annual report on the Swiss watch industry often highlights that a handful of brands—Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—account for a massive chunk of the industry's profits.
Rolex alone has an estimated 30% market share.
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But there's a catch.
Production is increasing. Rolex’s new "temporary" production facility in Bulle, Switzerland, is a sign that the supply-side constraint might eventually ease. This is a massive plot point for watch industry season 3. If the supply of a Submariner finally meets the demand, the "investment" case for modern Rolex disappears.
And that’s good for us.
It means the people buying them will be people who actually want to wear them to the beach, not people who want to put them in a safe for three years and "flip" them for a 20% gain.
Micro-brands and the $1,000 Ceiling
If you aren't looking at the entry-level space right now, you're missing out on some of the best engineering in the game. Christopher Ward, Baltic, and Halios are punching way above their weight.
The Christopher Ward Bel Canto is a perfect example.
A chiming "Sonnerie au Passage" watch for under $4,000? In Season 2, that would have been $20,000 minimum from a Swiss house. Now, the technology has democratized. We're seeing integrated bracelet designs—which were the "it" thing for the last five years—move into the sub-$1,000 category with the Tissot PRX.
The PRX basically killed the "entry-level luxury" market for everyone else.
If you’re a brand trying to sell a $2,000 watch with an off-the-shelf movement and a boring design, you're in trouble. The consumer in watch industry season 3 is too smart for that. They've watched the YouTube reviews. They've read the forums. They know what a movement "should" cost.
The Vintage Trap
Vintage is scary right now. Honestly.
The "franken-watch" problem is real. As prices for vintage Speedmasters and Submariners stayed high, the incentive to forge them or "restore" them with non-original parts increased.
In watch industry season 3, "provenance" is everything.
If a watch doesn't have a paper trail, it's a gamble. We’ve seen high-profile scandals, even at major auction houses, involving swapped dials and "re-engraved" case backs. This has led to a surge in the "Neo-vintage" market—watches from the late 90s and early 2000s.
Think: Rolex 5-digit references or early 36mm Omega Seamasters.
They have the modern reliability of sapphire crystals and solid movements, but the classic proportions that the current "maxi-case" giants lack. It’s the "sweet spot" for many collectors who are tired of the 44mm wrist-weights that dominated the previous decade.
The Cultural Impact of the "Quiet Luxury" Trend
You've probably heard the term "Quiet Luxury" until you're blue in the face.
But it has a real impact on watch industry season 3.
Big, iced-out, flashy watches are declining in the secondary market. People are gravitating toward smaller case sizes. 36mm is the new 40mm. Even 34mm is becoming "cool" again for men. It’s a reaction to the over-the-top excess of the early 2020s.
Look at what celebrities are wearing.
Instead of a 48mm Hublot, you see Tyler, the Creator wearing vintage Cartier or Andrew Garfield wearing an elegant Omega De Ville. This shift toward "elegance" is a defining characteristic of the current season.
Sustainability and the Lab-Grown Question
We have to talk about the "S" word: Sustainability.
Breitling is leading the charge here, moving toward lab-grown diamonds and "traceable" gold. For a long time, the watch industry was very secretive about where its materials came from. But the younger generation—the Gen Z collectors who are entering the market in watch industry season 3—actually care about this stuff.
They want to know if the strap is "vegan leather" or if the steel is recycled.
Brands that ignore this shift are going to find themselves irrelevant in a decade. It's not just a marketing gimmick; it's a business necessity.
Practical Insights for the Modern Collector
If you're looking to buy right now, don't chase the charts. The "watch-as-an-investment" era is largely over for the average person. If you buy a watch today, assume it will lose 10% to 20% of its value the moment you walk out of the store—just like a car.
Buy because you love the dial. Buy because the movement is a work of art.
Here is how to navigate watch industry season 3 like a pro:
- Ignore the "Waitlist" Games: If an AD tells you that you need to buy $10,000 worth of jewelry to get a GMT, walk away. The secondary market is cooling fast enough that you’ll likely be able to buy that watch at MSRP-equivalent prices on the gray market within the next 12 months anyway.
- Focus on Neo-Vintage: Look at the 1990s and early 2000s. These watches are currently undervalued compared to their "true" vintage counterparts from the 60s and 70s.
- Explore the "Micro" World: Brands like Formex, Monta, and Farer are offering finishing and features that rival brands at 3x the price.
- Size Matters: Try a smaller watch. Seriously. A 36mm or 38mm watch wears much more comfortably for a daily driver than a bulky diver.
- Service Costs are Real: Before you buy that vintage chronograph, check what a service costs. A Breitling or Omega service can easily run you $800 to $1,200. Factor that into your purchase price.
Watch industry season 3 is about the return to reality. The "bubble" hasn't exactly burst, but it has definitely deflated. We’re back to a place where watches are for wearing, for passing down to your kids, and for obsessing over the tiny gears and springs that make them tick.
It’s a good time to be a watch nerd.
The hype is dying. Long live the watch.
Next Steps for Your Collection
Start by auditing what you currently own. In this market, liquidity is king, so if you have "hype" pieces you don't actually love, now is the time to consolidate into one or two "grail" pieces that have historical staying power. Research the auction results from Phillips and Sotheby’s over the last six months to see which brands are actually holding their value versus which ones were just riding the wave. Finally, go to a local "RedBar" or watch meetup. The best way to understand the current season is to talk to other collectors and see what’s actually on their wrists—not just what’s on their Instagram feeds.