Checking your phone at 2:00 AM to see if the futures are green is a ritual most of us know too well. You're basically looking for a sign from the universe—or at least from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange—about whether will stock market go up tomorrow or if you should prepare for a sea of red.
Markets are weird. One day, a "cool" inflation report sends everything to the moon; the next, the exact same data makes investors freak out about a slowing economy. Honestly, trying to guess the next 24 hours is less like science and more like trying to predict which way a squirrel will run when it sees a car.
The "Pre-Market" Madness and What It Actually Means
Let’s be real: the pre-market is often a liar. You’ve probably seen the S&P 500 futures up 0.5% at 6:00 AM, only for the entire rally to evaporate by 10:15 AM. Why? Because volume is thin. A few big institutional trades can move the needle in the early hours, but once the "big money" and retail traders flood in at the 9:30 AM bell, the narrative shifts.
To figure out if the stock market will go up tomorrow, specifically looking at Friday, January 16, 2026, we have to look at the "Big Three" drivers hitting the tape right now:
- Bank Earnings: We are right in the thick of the Q4 2025 reporting season. Today, we saw JPMorgan Chase report an adjusted profit beat but shaky revenue, causing the stock to slide about 4%. Tomorrow morning, the baton passes to Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C). If these giants hint that the American consumer is finally tapped out, tomorrow could be rough.
- The "Empire" State of Mind: At 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index drops. It sounds boring, but it’s a massive signal for regional economic health. Paired with the Philly Fed Business Outlook, it gives us a pulse on whether businesses are actually optimistic or just faking it.
- Jobless Claims Aftershocks: We just got the initial jobless claims data. While the "no-hire, no-fire" trend has kept the labor market stable, any uptick in continued claims usually makes the bears come out of hibernation.
Why the Fed Is Still Breathing Down Our Necks
Even though we're in 2026, we are still obsessed with the Federal Reserve. It’s kinda exhausting. Right now, the fed funds rate is sitting in that 3.5% to 3.75% range. The market is currently pricing in a tiny 5% chance of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting.
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If tomorrow’s manufacturing data comes in "too hot," it basically tells the Fed they don't need to rush into more cuts. Paradoxically, good news for the economy is often bad news for the stock market because it keeps interest rates higher for longer.
The AI Fatigue Factor
You can't talk about tomorrow without talking about the "Magnificent Seven" and the broader AI trade. We've seen a massive rotation lately. Money is starting to move out of the high-flying tech names and into "boring" sectors like Industrials and Healthcare.
If tomorrow's market feels sluggish, it might not be because of bad news. It might just be the "AI Supercycle" catching its breath. Morgan Stanley analysts have noted that while AI infrastructure spending is projected to hit $520 billion this year, investors are getting pickier. They want to see the revenue, not just the potential.
Technical Levels to Watch
If you're a fan of charts, keep an eye on the S&P 500's psychological support at 6,800. We've been flirting with 7,000 recently, but the "TACO Trade" (Tactical Asset Cross-Over) has made things volatile.
"The market is currently priced for perfection. With the S&P trading at roughly 23x forward earnings, there is zero room for an earnings miss tomorrow morning." — General consensus among Wall Street strategists.
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Actionable Insights for Tomorrow
Stop obsessing over the 1-minute candle. If you are trying to decide if the stock market will go up tomorrow, focus on these three things before the opening bell:
- Check the 10-Year Treasury Yield: If it spikes toward 4.25% or 4.3% in the morning, tech stocks will likely struggle. Higher yields are the kryptonite of growth stocks.
- Watch the Bank of America (BAC) Earnings Call: Listen for mentions of "credit card delinquencies." If they are rising, the retail sector might get hammered tomorrow afternoon.
- The "Friday Sell-Off" Rule: Often, traders don't want to hold risky positions over the weekend, especially with the current "policy drama" in Washington. If the morning starts weak, don't be surprised if the 3:00 PM "power hour" sees a further dip.
Market direction isn't a coin flip; it's a reaction to data. Tomorrow's trajectory depends almost entirely on whether the big banks can convince us that the economy is "resilient" rather than just "slowing down slowly."
Keep your position sizes manageable. The 2026 market has proven that it can turn on a dime, and tomorrow won't be any different.
Next Steps for You:
- Monitor the New York Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow to gauge industrial health.
- Listen to the Wells Fargo earnings commentary specifically regarding mortgage demand, as this will signal the health of the housing sector.
- Review your stops on any high-beta tech holdings, as the current rotation trade suggests continued volatility in the Nasdaq 100.