Checking your phone at 10:00 PM to see if the futures are green or red is a ritual. We’ve all been there. You want to know if will the stock market go up tomorrow, but the truth is usually buried under a mountain of jargon about "basis points" and "quant easing."
Honestly? Tomorrow—Saturday, January 17, 2026—the major US exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq are actually closed.
It’s the weekend.
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But that doesn't mean the "market" stops moving. Between the 24-hour crypto churn, weekend geopolitical shifts, and the high-stakes drama currently unfolding in Washington over the Federal Reserve’s future, the stage is being set for a massive Monday. If you’re looking at the screens right now, you’re seeing a tug-of-war between tech optimism and a sudden spike in Treasury yields that has everyone a little on edge.
Why the "Tomorrow" Question is Tricky Right Now
When people ask if the market is going up, they’re usually looking for a "yes" or "no." Finance is never that kind. Friday, January 16, ended on a bit of a weird note. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq basically stayed flat—declining less than 0.1%—while the Dow slid about 0.2%.
It wasn't a crash. It was more like a collective "hold your breath."
We are seeing a weird chasm. On one side, you have the semiconductor giants. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) just dropped a monster earnings report, and Nvidia is still riding the AI wave like a pro surfer. On the other side? Software stocks and regional banks are struggling.
The big elephant in the room is the 10-year Treasury yield, which just hit a four-month high of 4.23%. When yields go up, growth stocks usually get a headache.
The Trump-Fed Factor
There’s some high-level drama regarding the Federal Reserve chair. President Trump recently hinted he might skip over Kevin Hassett for the Fed chair spot come May. Why does this matter for your portfolio tomorrow? Because the market hates uncertainty. Hassett was seen as the guy who would slash rates aggressively. If he's out, the "cheap money" dream gets a little cloudier.
Will the Stock Market Go Up Tomorrow? Understanding the Weekend Lag
Since you can't trade Apple or Tesla on a Saturday, the "market" tomorrow is really about sentiment. If you're looking for clues, keep an eye on these specific areas:
- The Crypto Mirror: Often, if Bitcoin ($BTC) takes a dive over the weekend, retail sentiment on Monday morning starts out shaky. Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around $95,000. It’s consolidating.
- Futures Markets: Sunday night (around 6:00 PM ET) is when the S&P 500 futures actually start moving again. That’s your first real "tomorrow" indicator.
- International Pulse: Watch for news out of China. There’s a massive dump of China macro data—including Q4 GDP—coming on Monday. If that data is trash, global markets might catch a cold.
Is the AI Rally Over?
Not even close. But it is getting pickier.
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Last year, you could throw a dart at anything with ".ai" in the description and make money. In 2026, the market is separating the "picks and shovels" (the guys making the chips, like Broadcom and AMD) from the software companies that are actually getting disrupted by the tech they're trying to sell.
What to Watch for Monday’s Open
Since tomorrow is for yard work and relaxation, you should be prepping for the next actual trading session. US markets are actually closed this coming Monday, January 19, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Yeah, it’s a long weekend.
This means the "will the market go up" question has a lot of time to stew. Usually, long weekends during earnings season lead to a gap up or a gap down on Tuesday morning. Here is what’s on the menu for when the bells finally ring:
- Earnings Wave: Netflix, J&J, and Visa are all stepping up to the plate. If Netflix shows another subscriber surge, it could pull the whole Nasdaq up with it.
- Inflation Whispers: We’re still seeing "sticky" inflation around 2.7%. If the PCE price index (the Fed’s favorite metric) comes in hot later next week, expect those Treasury yields to keep climbing.
- The Greenland "Noise": You might have seen headlines about the US wanting to acquire Greenland. It sounds like a meme, but geopolitical oddities can sometimes cause sudden, weird ripples in defense and energy stocks.
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
Don't just stare at the flickering red and green lights. If you're worried about whether the market goes up or down in the next 48 hours, you might be over-leveraged.
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Check your "Magnificent Seven" exposure. Most of these stocks actually underperformed the broader market in 2025. If you're 80% tech, you're basically at the mercy of one sector's mood swings.
Watch the $7,000 level on the S&P 500. Technically, the index is flirting with this psychological barrier. If it breaks above and stays there, the "FOMO" (fear of missing out) crowd will likely rush in, pushing prices higher regardless of the fundamentals.
Look at the "Old School" winners. While everyone is obsessed with AI, companies like PNC Financial and Morgan Stanley are actually posting 25% profit jumps because of higher interest rates. Sometimes, boring is better when the tech sector gets volatile.
The most important thing to remember is that "tomorrow" in the stock market is usually just noise. The real money is made in the months and years you don't spend obsessing over a Saturday afternoon price check.
Keep an eye on the 10-year yield. If it stays above 4.2%, keep some cash on the sidelines. If it starts to retreat, that might be your green light for a tech rebound.
Next Steps:
- Audit your tech-to-value ratio: Ensure you aren't over-concentrated in AI if yields continue to rise.
- Set alerts for 6:00 PM ET Sunday: This is when futures open and give the first real hint for the week ahead.
- Review the earnings calendar: Check for Netflix ($NFLX) and Visa ($V) dates to anticipate volatility in your specific holdings.