Honestly, if you're looking for a simple "yes" or "no" on whether Donald Trump is going to keep the lights on in Kyiv, you’re probably going to be disappointed. It’s messy. Since the second Trump administration took over in early 2025, the vibe in Washington has shifted from "as long as it takes" to "let's make a deal right now."
But "making a deal" doesn't necessarily mean abandonment.
We’re sitting here in mid-January 2026, and the ground has shifted beneath everyone's feet. Just today, Trump sat in the Oval Office and basically told the world that Vladimir Putin is ready for peace, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the one dragging his feet. It’s a wild reversal of the rhetoric we saw for years. The big question—will Trump help Ukraine—has morphed into a more complicated one: what does "help" actually look like when the guy in charge thinks the best way to help is to stop the shooting at any cost?
The 28-Point Gamble: Peace or Surrender?
Late last year, a 28-point peace plan leaked out of the White House, and it sent shockwaves through Europe. If you haven't seen the nitty-gritty, it's pretty blunt. The plan suggests an immediate ceasefire and basically tells Ukraine they have to accept that Russia is keeping Crimea and the Donbas.
Wait, it gets tougher.
The proposal calls for a cap on the Ukrainian military at 600,000 troops. To give you some perspective, they’ve been running at nearly 900,000 lately. It also puts a hard "no" on NATO membership for the foreseeable future. Trump’s team, including Vice President JD Vance, argues this is just being realistic. Vance has been a vocal skeptic of open-ended military aid, often saying the U.S. doesn't have the "capacity or interest" to lead the charge in Europe forever.
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But there is a "help" side to this. The plan includes what they’re calling "reliable" U.S. security guarantees. Basically, if Putin signs the deal and then attacks again, the U.S. promises a "decisive coordinated military response" and the immediate return of crushing sanctions. Some experts, like John Herbst at the Atlantic Council, think this could actually work as a deterrent because, frankly, the Kremlin is still terrified of a direct fight with the American military.
The Money and the Guns: Follow the Paper Trail
If you look at the 2026 defense budget—the NDAA—that Trump signed just a few weeks ago in December, the numbers tell a story of "less is more." Or at least, "less is what you're getting."
- The Funding Drop: The new bill allocates about $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) for 2026.
- The Context: Compare that to the $14 billion from the 2024 supplemental. It’s a drop in the bucket.
- The Loophole: Trump hasn't actually used a lot of the billions in authority he already has. Instead, he’s pushing a "buy it yourself" model.
Basically, the administration is pivoting. They’ve moved to the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). This is a fancy way of saying that if Ukraine wants American gear, European allies have to foot the bill or buy it for them. It keeps the American defense industry humming—which Trump loves—without the "endless taxpayer checks" that the MAGA base hates.
The Zelenskyy-Trump Dynamic in 2026
It’s no secret that the relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy is... complicated. Zelenskyy has been playing a high-stakes game of "charm and alarm." He’s reshuffled his entire cabinet this month, bringing in people like Kyrylo Budanov to key roles, partly to show he’s serious about corruption and partly to prepare for a world where he might have to fight without a total U.S. security blanket.
Just before the new year, they met at Mar-a-Lago. Trump walked out calling Zelenskyy "brave" and "a great piece of work," but then turned around and pressured him to hold elections within 100 days—even with a third of his country under occupation.
It’s transactional. Trump sees himself as the ultimate broker. If Zelenskyy plays ball on the peace talks, the "help" (in the form of weapons and intelligence) keeps flowing. If he doesn't? The White House has already threatened to pull intelligence sharing—the very stuff Ukraine uses to see Russian missiles coming before they hit.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Trump wants Ukraine to lose.
Honestly, he probably doesn't care about the map as much as he cares about the "win" of ending the war. In his mind, a "win" is a signed paper that lets him pivot to China and domestic issues. If helping Ukraine means giving them just enough weapons to force Putin to the table, he’ll do it. But he won't give them enough to "win" in the way Zelenskyy defines it—which is taking back every inch of land.
Real Talk: The Risks
There’s a massive gap between the White House and the U.S. intelligence community right now. While Trump is projecting optimism about Putin’s "readiness" for peace, the agencies are still warning that the Kremlin hasn't actually given up on taking the whole country. If Trump forces a ceasefire and Putin uses it to re-arm and strike again in 2028, the "help" Trump provided will look like a historical blunder.
So, What's the Actual Outlook?
If you're following this closely, keep an eye on these specific moves:
- The Intelligence Trigger: Watch if the White House actually follows through on the threat to "pause" imagery and collection data. That’s the real life-and-death "help" that happens behind the scenes.
- European "Backfilling": See if countries like Poland and Germany continue to use the PURL mechanism to buy U.S. Patriots for Kyiv. If they stop, Ukraine's air defense could collapse by summer.
- The Frozen Assets: There’s still a huge fight over the $300 billion in frozen Russian funds. Trump’s plan mentions using some of this for reconstruction, but the legalities are a nightmare.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
To get the full picture of how this impacts the global stage, you should look into the specific provisions of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1071). It contains the new reporting requirements that Congress put in place to make sure the administration can't cut off intelligence to Ukraine without telling the Hill within 48 hours. Monitoring the NATO-Ukraine Council updates will also give you a better sense of whether the "Coalition of the Willing" in Europe is actually prepared to replace the U.S. leadership role if the Mar-a-Lago talks hit a wall.