So, you’re looking at your receipt or checking the price of that new truck and wondering: when does the bleeding stop? The short answer is that the "tariff man" is still very much in the building. As of January 2026, Donald Trump hasn't just kept the tariffs he started with; he’s actually doubled down on them in ways that make his first term look like a light warm-up.
If you were hoping for a quick pivot to free trade, honestly, you’re probably going to be disappointed.
Right now, the U.S. is sitting at its highest average tariff rate since 1943. We’re talking about an average effective rate of over 11%. For context, before this latest push, that number was usually hovering down near 2% or 3%. It’s a massive shift in how the American economy actually functions. The idea that these are "temporary" bargaining chips is starting to feel like a distant memory for most business owners trying to manage a supply chain.
The Supreme Court Wildcard: Could the Judges End It?
Everything might change this week. Literally, this Wednesday.
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There is a massive case sitting with the Supreme Court right now that could blow the whole thing wide open. Basically, a coalition of 12 states and a bunch of small businesses sued the administration. They’re arguing that Trump overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to slap these taxes on everything from Canadian lumber to Mexican auto parts.
Lower courts already told him "no," saying he can’t just declare an emergency over immigration or trade deficits to tax imports. But the White House isn't backing down. Trump recently posted on social media that if the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, it’ll be a "complete mess" and that the country is "screwed." He’s worried about the chaos of trying to issue billions of dollars in refunds to companies that already paid up.
- The stakes: If the court rules against him, the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the broad "reciprocal" tariffs could vanish overnight.
- The reality: Even if he loses on IEEPA, he’s already been using "Section 232" (the national security law) to keep taxes on steel, aluminum, and now semiconductors.
He's kinda built a backup plan for his backup plan.
The China Deal: A Temporary Truce, Not a Stop
You might have heard about the "landmark" deal with Xi Jinping back in late 2025. It’s easy to mistake that for the end of the trade war, but it’s more like a ceasefire.
China agreed to buy a staggering 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 and promised to stop messing with our semiconductor companies. In exchange, the U.S. lowered some of the fentanyl-related tariffs by 10 percentage points. But—and this is the part people miss—the core 10% reciprocal tariff is still there. It’s "suspended" or "extended" until November 2026, meaning it’s a leash.
If China stops buying the beans or starts blocking rare earth minerals again, the 145% "nuclear option" tariffs that were threatened last year could be back on the table in a heartbeat.
The Greenland Drama: New Tariffs Just Dropped
Just when you think the map of trade is settled, something weird happens. As of today, January 17, 2026, we have a brand new tariff front: the Arctic.
Trump just announced a 10% tariff on a group of NATO allies—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. Why? Because they sent military forces to Greenland while he’s trying to negotiate a deal to buy the island. He’s calling it a "national security necessity" to prevent Russia or China from getting a foothold there.
These tariffs are scheduled to jump to 25% on June 1, 2026, unless these countries pull out or a deal is reached for the "Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." It sounds like a movie plot, but for a business importing European car parts or Scotch whiskey, it's a very real 10% tax hike starting February 1.
What This Means for Your Wallet in 2026
The Tax Policy Center puts the math in pretty grim terms for the average person. They estimate the current tariff regime will cost the average American household about $2,100 this year.
It’s not just the stuff you buy directly from overseas. It’s the "termite effect," as some economists call it. You might not see the tariff on raw copper, but you definitely see it when your plumber charges you 20% more for a new water heater because the internal components cost a fortune to bring in.
There are a few small wins, though. The administration recently rolled back some planned hikes on:
- Kitchen cabinets (staying at 25% instead of jumping to 50%)
- Upholstered furniture (staying at 25% instead of 30%)
- Italian pasta (duties were slashed from a proposed 92% down to roughly 9% for most producers)
So, some things are getting cheaper—or at least staying "less expensive"—but the overall trend is still "pay more."
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Practical Steps: How to Handle the "Tariff Era"
If you're running a business or just trying to protect your savings, waiting for Trump to "stop" the tariffs is a bad strategy. He sees them as his primary tool for every negotiation, whether it's about fentanyl, immigration, or buying a giant icy island.
Diversify your suppliers now. If your business relies on imports from the "Greenland Eight" or China, you need a backup in a country with a solid trade agreement, like South Korea or the UK (which actually secured some exemptions for pharmaceuticals and medical tech recently).
Watch the "De Minimis" changes. In 2025, the $800 duty-free threshold for small packages was basically killed. If you’re used to ordering cheap stuff directly from overseas e-commerce sites, expect to see "import fees" at checkout that weren't there two years ago.
Automate your refunds. Starting February 6, 2026, U.S. Customs is moving to all-electronic refunds via ACH. If the Supreme Court does rule the IEEPA tariffs illegal, there will be a gold rush for refunds. Make sure your business is set up in the system now so you aren't stuck at the back of the line when the government has to pay back billions.
The bottom line? Trump isn't stopping. He's refining. He’s using tariffs like a scalpel in some places and a sledgehammer in others. Unless the Supreme Court yanks the power out of his hands this week, 2026 is going to be another year of "Tariff Man" economics.
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Keep an eye on that Wednesday ruling. It’s the only thing that could actually force his hand. Otherwise, keep your budget tight and your supply chain flexible. It's going to be a bumpy ride.