If you asked anyone five years ago if a Republican could actually make a dent in the Empire State, they’d probably have laughed you out of the room. New York is blue. It’s always been blue. It’s the land of the "super-majority" and deep-rooted Democratic machines. But after the dust settled on the 2024 election, that old certainty feels a little... shaky.
People are still asking the same question: Will Trump win New York? While the literal answer for the 2024 cycle was "no"—Kamala Harris took the state’s 28 electoral votes—the way he lost changed the entire conversation for 2026 and beyond. We aren't looking at a stagnant political map anymore. We're looking at a massive, double-digit swing that caught even seasoned pollsters off guard.
The Numbers Nobody Expected in 2024
Let's be real: Trump didn't win the state, but he put up numbers that haven't been seen by a Republican in decades. Honestly, the shift was staggering. In 2020, Trump pulled about 37.7% of the vote. Fast forward to 2024, and he jumped to 43.3%.
That’s a 5.6% gain statewide. It doesn't sound like a ton until you realize that New York saw the biggest Republican swing of any state in the entire country.
The most shocking part? It wasn't just the "Upstate" red counties doing the heavy lifting. The real earthquake happened in New York City. Harris had the worst performance in the five boroughs of any Democrat since 1988. Trump became the first Republican in nearly 40 years to crack the 30% mark in the city.
Breaking Down the Boroughs
- The Bronx: A massive 20-point swing toward Trump.
- Queens: His birthplace also saw a 20-point shift.
- Staten Island: Remained a fortress, with Trump taking nearly 65% of the vote.
- Manhattan: Still very blue, but even here, the margins tightened slightly.
You’ve gotta wonder what caused this. It wasn't just one thing. It was a "perfect storm" of high grocery prices, concerns over the migrant crisis, and a general feeling that the current leadership in Albany and D.C. just wasn't listening.
Why the "Blue Wall" in New York is Cracking
For a long time, the strategy for Democrats was simple: run up the score in NYC and Westchester, and it doesn't matter what happens in the rural areas. But when you start losing 10% or 15% of your lead in the city, that math falls apart.
Basically, the 2024 results showed that the "working-class coalition" isn't a monolith anymore. Hispanic and Asian voters in Brooklyn and Queens moved toward Trump in numbers that were previously unthinkable. According to Pew Research data from 2025, Trump’s national gains with Hispanic men were mirrored almost perfectly in the streets of New York.
Then you have the "Upstate" factor. While places like Buffalo (Erie County) and Rochester (Monroe County) stayed blue, the margins were thinner. Trump won Orange and Rockland counties comfortably. Nassau County on Long Island—a place that used to be the ultimate swing territory—went for Trump by 4 points.
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Looking Toward 2026: Can Republicans Keep the Momentum?
Now that it’s 2026, the question of will Trump win New York has evolved into a question about the Republican brand as a whole. We’re heading into a midterm cycle where Governor Kathy Hochul is facing a primary challenge from her left and a likely general election battle against a Republican like Bruce Blakeman.
There's a lot of "voter fatigue" in the air. A Quinnipiac poll from late 2025 showed that New Yorkers are increasingly frustrated with the "affordability crisis." If the GOP can stay focused on those "kitchen table" issues, they might keep those 2024 gains.
But—and this is a big "but"—history isn't always on their side. Special elections in early 2025 showed that when the focus shifts away from the top of the ticket, Democrats often "claw back" some of that ground. Voters who supported Trump for President didn't necessarily support every Republican down-ballot.
Factors that Could Flip the Script
- Turnout: Republican turnout in 2024 was exceptionally high (around 74% of their base). If they get complacent in 2026, those gains disappear.
- The "Trump Factor": Without Donald Trump himself on the ballot, does the "MAGA" energy stay at the same level?
- Local Issues: In New York, issues like "Congestion Pricing" and "bail reform" move the needle more than international trade deals.
What Most People Get Wrong About New York Politics
A common misconception is that New York is just "NYC vs. Everyone Else." It's way more complex. You have "Blue" pockets in the middle of "Red" territory (like Ithaca or Saratoga) and "Red" pockets in the heart of the city (like Howard Beach or South Brooklyn).
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Trump’s strategy focused on these "invisible" voters—people who felt ignored by the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Whether he’s actually the one on the ballot or he’s just acting as the kingmaker, his influence on the New York GOP is the strongest it’s been in a century.
Actionable Insights for the Next Election Cycle
If you’re trying to figure out which way the wind is blowing in New York, don't just look at the national news. Watch the local races.
- Watch the Suburbs: Nassau and Suffolk counties are the "canaries in the coal mine." If Republicans hold their lead there in 2026, the 2024 shift was real.
- Monitor Registration Trends: The number of "unaffiliated" voters is growing. These people are the ones who decided the 2024 margins, and they’re notoriously hard to poll.
- Follow the Money: Historically, Manhattan is a fundraising hub for both parties. Check if the "big donors" are shifting their support toward more centrist or right-leaning candidates.
The idea of a Republican winning the state’s electoral votes still feels like a long shot, but the days of New York being a "safe 30-point win" for Democrats are likely over. The map is purple-ing, and that makes every vote in the upcoming midterms matter more than they have in a generation.