If you’ve been watching the news lately, it feels like Washington is moving at a hundred miles an hour. Honestly, it’s hard to keep up. One day there’s a massive "minibus" spending package, the next there’s a "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) shaking up the tax code. Everyone is asking the same question: will trump's bill pass? Or more accurately, which one?
Right now, we aren't just looking at one piece of paper. We are looking at a complete overhaul of how the federal government spends your money and regulates your life. Between the massive FY 2026 appropriations bills and the continuing rollout of the OBBB Act, the legislative landscape in early 2026 is a chaotic mix of "already done" and "still fighting."
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is Already Here (Sorta)
There’s a common misconception that the Trump administration is still waiting for its first big win. In reality, the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) was the cornerstone of the 2025 reconciliation process. While parts of it are already law, the real impact is hitting now, in 2026.
For instance, as of January 1, 2026, those enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits—the ones that helped millions pay for health insurance—have expired. The OBBB chose to let those die while locking in nearly $4 trillion in other tax cuts. This is where the "will it pass" question gets tricky. Most of the heavy lifting for the tax and healthcare overhaul is finished, but the implementation is the new battlefield.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), these changes are expected to result in about 5 million people losing health insurance over the coming months. It’s a massive shift. People are just now starting to see the effects on their premiums and their "Trump Accounts"—those new tax-advantaged investment vehicles that allow employers to contribute up to $2,500 tax-free.
The 2026 Funding Fight: The Next Big Hurdle
If we’re talking about what's on the floor right now, we have to talk about the FY 2026 appropriations. This is the nuts-and-bolts stuff. Just this week, on January 15, 2026, the Senate passed a huge Energy and Water Development bill with a whopping 82 votes. That’s a rare moment of bipartisan agreement in a very polarized town.
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But don't let the high vote count fool you.
The House, led by Chairman Tom Cole, is pushing through a series of bills that look very different from the Senate’s versions. Take H.R. 7006, which covers Financial Services and National Security. It passed the House on January 14 with a 341-79 vote. It slashes the IRS budget by $1.1 billion. Republicans are basically saying, "We want fewer auditors and more customer service."
Whether this specific version of will trump's bill pass the Senate is the billion-dollar question. The Senate version of the IRS funding is similar in total dollars but includes more flexibility for the agency to move money around. They have until January 30 to figure it out, or we’re looking at another government shutdown.
What’s Actually Moving and What’s Stuck?
To understand if these bills will make it to the finish line, you have to look at the numbers. The GOP has the House, but the Senate is a game of inches.
- Energy and Water (FY 2026): This one is basically a done deal. It passed the House (397-28) and the Senate (82-15). It puts $49 billion toward the DOE, focusing heavily on nuclear energy and "energy dominance."
- Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act: This one already crossed the finish line. President Trump signed it on January 14, 2026. If you've missed the "milk mustache" ads, they're coming back. It’s a win for dairy farmers and a symbolic strike against "woke" nutrition standards.
- The IRS Budget Rollback: This is H.R. 7006. It passed the House but faces a narrower path in the Senate. Democrats are loath to cut enforcement, but with the January 30 deadline looming, a compromise is likely.
- The Enhanced Premium Tax Credit (PTC) Extension: This is the real wildcard. The House passed a three-year extension (H.R. 1834) through a weird procedural move called a discharge petition. The Senate rejected it in December. Now, a bipartisan group including Sens. Susan Collins and Bernie Moreno is trying to revive it.
The Student Loan Shocker
One thing people didn't see coming was the January 16 announcement regarding student debt. Even as the administration targets Grad PLUS loans for elimination (set for July 1, 2026), the White House just announced an indefinite pause on the collection of defaulted federal student loan debt.
It’s a "peace offering" of sorts.
While the OBBB is set to cap Parent PLUS loans at $20,000 per year starting this summer, this collection pause provides some breathing room for those already in the system. It’s a perfect example of how the administration is playing both sides: cutting future "bloated" programs while offering immediate relief to a specific base.
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Why the "Will it Pass" Question Matters for Your Wallet
Let’s get real. You probably don’t care about "subcommittee markups." You care about your bank account.
If the current slate of appropriations bills passes as written, the IRS will have roughly 9% less money to come after you for audits, but they might also be slower to answer the phone. If the Energy bill holds, you'll see a massive pivot toward domestic fossil fuels and nuclear power, which the administration claims will lower your utility bills by 2027.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" provisions are the ones that hit home first. The new 2026 tax brackets are already in effect. If you’re a single filer making $50,400, you’re in the 22% bracket. If you’re a married couple filing jointly making $32,200, that’s your standard deduction for the year.
Obstacles to the Trump Agenda
It isn't all smooth sailing. The "minibus" strategy—breaking the budget into smaller chunks—is designed to avoid the "bloated omnibuses" of the past. It’s working, but it’s slow.
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The Labor-HHS bill is the "boss fight" of this legislative session. It’s the one that handles the cultural issues—DEI, gender programs, and abortion funding. Historically, this is the hardest bill to pass. If it fails, it could drag down the other 11 funding bills and trigger a shutdown on January 31.
Actionable Insights: What You Should Do Now
So, will trump's bill pass? The odds are high for the funding bills, but the "clean" extensions for things like ACA credits are on life support. Here is how you should handle the next few weeks:
- Check Your Health Coverage: If you were relying on those enhanced ACA credits, your premiums likely just jumped. Don't wait for a notice; check your marketplace account now.
- Review Your "Trump Account": If your employer offers a contribution to these new stock-indexed accounts, take it. It’s free money (up to $2,500) that grows tax-free.
- Plan for Student Loan Changes: If you or your kids are planning on Grad school, be aware that Grad PLUS loans are likely gone by July. Look into private alternatives or Stafford loans before the deadline.
- Watch the January 30 Deadline: This is the "drop dead" date for government funding. If a deal isn't reached, expect delays in federal services, though the administration has shown they will use executive orders to keep "essential" parts moving.
The 2026 legislative session is a masterclass in "moving the needle." It’s not about one single bill anymore; it’s about a dozen smaller battles that, when put together, change the entire trajectory of the country. Stay sharp.