In a state where elections are basically decided by the equivalent of a packed Lambeau Field, the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race didn't disappoint. If you’re looking for the bottom line: Tammy Baldwin won. She pulled off a victory for a third term, but man, it was close. Like, 0.85% close.
Baldwin, the Democratic incumbent, finished with 1,672,777 votes (49.33%). Her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, stayed right on her heels with 1,643,996 votes (48.48%). That’s a gap of just about 29,000 votes in a state where over 3.3 million people showed up to the polls. Honestly, in the world of high-stakes politics, that is a rounding error.
The Wild Night That Kept Everyone Up
Election night in Wisconsin is never just one night. It’s a marathon of waiting for Milwaukee’s "central count" to drop. This time, the Associated Press didn't actually call the race until Wednesday, November 6, around 12:42 p.m.
While Donald Trump was busy carrying the state at the top of the ticket—marking a rare moment where Wisconsin voters split their ticket between parties for President and Senate—Baldwin managed to outpace the national Democratic trend. She actually performed about 4,000 votes better than Kamala Harris in the state. Meanwhile, Hovde underperformed Trump by roughly 55,000 votes. That right there is the ballgame.
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Hovde didn't make it easy, though. He waited until November 18 to officially concede. In a video posted to X, he basically said he wouldn't pursue a recount because it would just be "recounting the same ballots," though he did spend about two weeks floating some pretty heavy skepticism about the late-night ballot reporting in Milwaukee.
Ultimately, a recount would have cost him a fortune out of pocket because the margin was over 0.25%, and it likely wouldn't have flipped 29,000 votes anyway.
Why Baldwin Managed to Hold On
You've gotta wonder how a liberal Democrat survives in a state that Trump won. Baldwin has this weirdly effective "go everywhere" strategy.
- The Farm Bureau Endorsement: For the first time in over 20 years, the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation—the state's largest general farm organization—backed a statewide Democrat. That’s huge. It gave her cover in rural areas that usually go deep red.
- Waukesha and Ozaukee: She actually improved her numbers in these traditional Republican strongholds (the WOW counties). Even though she didn't win them, she lost them by less than usual.
- The "Plant" Candidate: Hovde was pretty vocal about Thomas Leager, an "America First" candidate who took about 28,751 votes. Hovde claimed Leager was a Democratic plant designed to siphon off conservative votes. Whether that's true or not, the math is brutal: Leager’s total was almost exactly the size of the gap between Baldwin and Hovde.
The Money and the Mud
This wasn't a cheap fight. Baldwin raised roughly $36.5 million compared to Hovde’s $16.8 million. Hovde, a multimillionaire bank owner, put a massive chunk of his own wealth into the race.
The ads were everywhere. Republicans went hard on Baldwin’s partner, Maria Brisbane, who is a wealth manager in New York. They tried to paint Baldwin as "the third senator from New York." On the flip side, Democrats hammered Hovde for his ties to California, often pointing out his $7 million mansion in Laguna Beach. It was a classic "who is more out of touch" contest.
Breaking Down the Numbers
| Candidate | Party | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tammy Baldwin | Democrat | 1,672,777 | 49.33% |
| Eric Hovde | Republican | 1,643,996 | 48.48% |
| Phil Anderson | Disrupt the Corruption | 42,315 | 1.25% |
| Thomas Leager | America First | 28,751 | 0.85% |
Wisconsin's voter turnout was massive—around 72.6% of the voting-age population. That's nearly a record. People were clearly fired up.
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What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
With Baldwin heading back to D.C., Democrats kept a vital seat in a year where they lost the Senate majority overall. The GOP now holds a 53-47 lead in the chamber, but Baldwin’s win prevented it from being a total blowout.
If you’re watching Wisconsin politics, the big takeaway is that "split-ticket" voting isn't dead. There are still thousands of Wisconsinites who will vote for a Republican president and a Democratic senator in the same breath. It makes the state almost impossible to predict.
Moving forward, keep an eye on the official election certification documents from the Wisconsin Elections Commission if you want the hyper-local precinct data. You can also monitor the Senate's 119th Congress activity to see how Baldwin leans into her third term, especially regarding the dairy and manufacturing issues she leaned on during the campaign. If you're a political junkie, start looking at the 2026 gubernatorial maps now—Wisconsin never really stops campaigning.