Honestly, if you're looking at the Yosemite weather next week and thinking it's just going to be a standard "winter wonderland" or a total washout, you're probably missing the nuance that makes or breaks a trip to the Sierra in January. People see a snowflake icon on their phone and cancel everything. Or they see a sun icon and show up in sneakers. Both are mistakes.
Basically, we're looking at a stretch of weather from January 18 through January 24, 2026, that is actually surprisingly stable, but with some "gotcha" moments if you aren't paying attention to the elevation gaps.
The Valley vs. The High Country: A Tale of Two Parks
You've gotta understand that "Yosemite weather" isn't one thing. Right now, Yosemite Valley—the place where most people actually spend their time—is looking at high temperatures that are frankly pretty comfortable for hiking. We’re talking about 52°F on Sunday and Monday. That's light-jacket-while-walking-the-Valley-Loop-Trail weather.
📖 Related: What Province of Canada is Montreal In? The Answer Might Surprise You
But here’s the kicker: the lows are dropping down to 7°F or 8°F at night.
That’s a 45-degree swing.
If you aren't prepared for that kind of "flash freeze" once the sun dips behind the granite walls, you're going to have a bad time. The Valley floor can be sunny and dry at 2:00 PM, and by 6:00 PM, every puddle or wet patch on the Mist Trail has turned into a sheet of black ice.
What the Forecast Actually Says
Next week is looking largely dry for the Valley, which is a bit of a break from the atmospheric rivers we've seen earlier this season. Here is the breakdown:
- Sunday & Monday (Jan 18-19): Mostly sunny. Highs near 52°F, lows around 10°F. This is peak "sunshine and scenery" weather.
- Mid-Week (Jan 20-22): It gets a bit moodier. Clouds roll in. Highs dip into the mid-to-high 40s, and the lows "warm up" slightly to the mid-teens.
- The Weekend (Jan 24): We might see a bit of a cooldown with highs around 41°F and a slight 5% to 10% chance of snow.
Why You Still Need Chains Even if It’s Sunny
There's this common misconception that if the forecast says "sunny," you can leave the tire chains at home. Don't do that. Seriously.
✨ Don't miss: 21 day weather forecast for orlando florida: What Most People Get Wrong
The National Park Service (NPS) is strict about this. Even if the roads are clear when you enter via Highway 140 (the lowest elevation entrance and your best bet for avoiding ice), a sudden shift in Yosemite weather next week could trigger chain requirements. Federal law in the park requires you to carry them from November through March, regardless of what your weather app says.
And honestly? Stick to Highway 140 through Mariposa if you're nervous about mountain driving. Highway 41 and 120 (Big Oak Flat) go much higher and are way more prone to icy patches even when the Valley is dry.
Closures You Can't Ignore
Don't plan on driving to Glacier Point or through Tioga Pass. They are closed. Period.
- Tioga Road (Hwy 120 East): Closed for the season. You cannot drive to Tuolumne Meadows or out the east side of the park toward Lee Vining.
- Glacier Point Road: Closed beyond the Badger Pass Ski Area.
Speaking of Badger Pass, it’s currently the place to go if you actually want to touch snow. While the Valley floor might be mostly clear, the higher elevations are sitting on a settled snow depth of about 36 inches as of mid-January.
Survival Tips for the "Dry" Winter Week
Since the precipitation chances are low—mostly sitting at 0% to 10% for most of the week—you might think you’re in the clear. But winter in the Sierra is about moisture management.
- The Ice Cone Factor: Even without new snow, the spray from Yosemite Falls freezes into a massive ice cone at the base. It’s stunning, but the trails nearby get incredibly slick.
- Pack Microspikes: If you plan on doing the Upper Yosemite Fall trail or the John Muir Trail winter route, do yourself a favor and bring traction for your boots.
- The "Firefall" Hype: We're getting close to the Horsetail Fall event (February). While the park hasn't required reservations for it this year, the "pre-crowds" are already starting to scout spots. Expect traffic on North Side Drive to be a bit of a mess in the afternoons.
Actionable Next Steps
If you’re heading up, do these three things right now:
📖 Related: Weather for Fish Creek WI: Why Everyone Gets the "Lake Effect" Wrong
- Call 209-372-0200 (press 1, 1) for the absolute latest road conditions. Web forecasts are great, but the rangers on the ground know where the black ice is hiding.
- Check the Badger Pass webcam. If you want to ski or snowshoe, see if the "melt-freeze" crust mentioned by rangers this week has softened up.
- Layer for the swing. Bring a base layer, a fleece, and a down jacket. You will use all of them within a single six-hour window.
The Yosemite weather next week is actually a gift—it's rare to get this much sun in January. Just don't let the "balmy" 50-degree days trick you into forgetting that it's still deep winter in the mountains. High-pressure systems like this often bring the coldest nights, so pack the good sleeping bag if you're camping at Upper Pines.