The NFL draft cycle is basically a year-round fever dream now. Even with the current season wrapping up, the draft community has already pivoted. Everyone is scrambling to figure out the 2026 NFL mock draft landscape because, honestly, the talent at the top is weirdly fascinating. We aren't just looking at the usual blue-blood suspects this time around.
The biggest story? A guy from Indiana is currently the betting favorite to go first overall.
If you told a Raiders fan two years ago that their savior would be an Indiana Hoosiers quarterback named Fernando Mendoza, they’d probably ask who you were and how you got into their house. But here we are. Mendoza just walked away with the Heisman Trophy after a season where he tossed 41 touchdowns and completed 73% of his passes. He’s got that prototypical 6-foot-5 frame that scouts drool over, but it’s his lightning-quick release that actually sets him apart.
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The Quarterback Carousel: Mendoza vs. The Field
Right now, the Las Vegas Raiders hold that coveted No. 1 pick. After the Pete Carroll and Geno Smith experiment ended in a bit of a disaster, the Silver and Black are desperate for a franchise anchor. Mendoza is the "sure thing" in a class that’s actually a bit thin at the top for signal-callers.
Behind him, the drama gets real. For a while, Oregon’s Dante Moore was the locked-in No. 2. He’s got the highest ceiling of anyone in this class, drawing massive comparisons to C.J. Stroud because of how he threads the needle on those deep sideline routes. However, there’s been a massive curveball: Moore is reportedly leaning toward staying at Oregon for another year. If he officially stays out of the 2026 NFL mock draft, the New York Jets at No. 2 are in a total tailspin.
Do they pivot to someone like Ty Simpson from Alabama? Simpson finally got his shot after sitting behind Jalen Milroe, and he’s looked the part, leading the Tide back into the playoff conversation. Or do the Jets take a flyer on a defensive monster and wait for the 2027 QB class?
Defensive Powerhouses You Can't Ignore
If your team doesn't need a quarterback, you're actually in luck. This class is loaded with "game-wreckers" on the defensive side of the ball.
- Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State): The guy is a freak. He’s 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, and plays with a violence that reminds people of a young Micah Parsons. He can play off-ball or move to the edge and just ruin a tackle's afternoon.
- Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): It’s rare to see a safety mentioned in the top five, but Downs is that good. He’s the "quarterback" of the Buckeyes' defense. You basically can't throw over the middle when he's on the field.
- Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE, Miami): He’s slightly undersized for a traditional end, but his motor never stops. He’s the kind of player who makes up for a lack of length with pure, unadulterated twitch.
The Tennessee Titans, sitting at No. 4, are likely looking at these guys. They need to keep building around Cam Ward, and getting a pass rusher like Bain or Auburn’s Keldric Faulk—who is a massive 6-foot-6 human being—would change their entire defensive identity.
Skill Position Stars: The Next Big Weapons
The wide receiver pipeline isn't slowing down. Ohio State is doing Ohio State things again, with Carnell Tate looking like the next superstar. The New York Giants are sitting at No. 5, and pairing Tate with Malik Nabers would be a nightmare for every defensive coordinator in the NFC East. Tate is a smooth mover; he doesn't look like he’s running fast until he’s suddenly five yards past the cornerback.
Then there’s the running back situation. Usually, teams shy away from taking backs early, but Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love might be the exception. He’s a runaway locomotive with soft hands. The Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 are a dark horse to take him if they decide to move on from Kyler Murray and go with a "best player available" strategy. Love looks a lot like Bijan Robinson in terms of his versatility, and in a league that values explosive playmakers, he’s a gold mine.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2026
There’s this weird narrative that the 2026 class is "weak." It’s not weak; it’s just top-heavy with non-QB talent. If you need an offensive tackle, you’ve got Francis Mauigoa from Miami and Spencer Fano from Utah. These guys are day-one starters.
The real uncertainty comes from the "Manning Effect." Everyone wants to know about Arch Manning. Here’s the reality: he’s likely not coming out. The Manning family is famously patient. They want him to have at least 25 starts before he touches an NFL field. Unless he pulls a 180 and declares by the January deadline, he’s a 2027 or even 2028 prospect. Same goes for Nico Iamaleava. He’s got the raw arm talent, but the consistency just isn't there yet. He’s better off staying at UCLA (after that Tennessee drama) to polish his game.
Real Teams, Real Needs: A Quick Look
If we look at the current draft order, a few fits just make too much sense to ignore.
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The New Orleans Saints are likely looking at the interior defensive line. Peter Woods from Clemson is a 310-pound powerhouse who moves like someone fifty pounds lighter. He’s the perfect replacement for Bryan Bresee, who hasn't quite lived up to the hype.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9—who are always drafting late but somehow find themselves in the top 10 due to some aggressive maneuvering—really need to find a successor for Kareem Hunt or Isiah Pacheco. If Jeremiyah Love falls to them, the rest of the league should probably just give up.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans
If you're tracking the 2026 NFL mock draft cycle, don't get too attached to the order just yet. Underclassmen have until mid-January to make their final decisions.
- Watch the Bowl Games: This is where the "stock up" or "stock down" moments happen. If a guy like Dante Moore struggles against a top-tier defense, it might solidify his choice to return to school.
- Monitor the Transfers: The portal is basically the NFL's minor league now. A quarterback moving from a mid-major to a powerhouse can skyrocket their value in three months.
- Check the Medicals: Keep an eye on guys like Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson. He’s a bonafide playmaker, but he’s had some injury bugs. His combine medical checks will be more important than his 40-yard dash.
The 2026 draft isn't just a destination; it’s a shifting landscape. Between the Indiana resurgence and the Ohio State defensive dominance, the next few months of evaluations are going to be wild.
Stay locked into the underclassman declaration list. Once the final names are in, we’ll see which teams are actually going to panic-trade for a quarterback and which ones are going to sit back and draft the next Hall of Fame linebacker.
Next Steps for Your Draft Prep:
- Check the official NFL underclassman declaration list after the January 14 deadline to see who actually made the leap.
- Review the PFF passing grades for Fernando Mendoza to see how he handles pressure compared to traditional pocket passers.
- Monitor the Raiders' coaching search, as a new regime will almost certainly dictate whether they stick with the No. 1 pick or trade down for a haul.