Everything feels a bit weird with Amazon lately. If you've looked at the amazon stock price right now, you’ve probably noticed it sitting around $239.09. It’s up a tiny bit, maybe 0.38% on the day, but that doesn't really tell the whole story. Honestly, the stock has been a bit of a tease for the last year. While the S&P 500 was out there doing victory laps with double-digit returns in 2025, Amazon basically just sat on the couch. It was up only about 3.6% for the year.
That’s frustrating. Especially when you consider how much stuff they actually do.
Why the amazon stock price right now feels stuck
People are worried. It’s that simple. There is a lot of noise about e-commerce slowing down in the U.S. and Europe. You've probably heard it too—the "saturation" argument. Basically, the idea is that everyone who’s going to buy a Prime membership already has one. Plus, they’re getting hit with massive legal bills. Did you know they had to eat a $2.5 billion charge recently just for a settlement with the FTC? That hurts the bottom line.
Then there's the severance stuff. They spent $1.8 billion just on letting people go. When you see those kinds of numbers, it’s easy to think the giant is finally stumbling.
But here’s the thing.
The market is looking at the wrong numbers. While the retail side is fighting for every penny in margin—especially with new competition like Temu and Shein breathing down their necks—the real money is moving elsewhere.
The AWS and AI re-acceleration
AWS is finally waking up again. For a while, it looked like Microsoft and Google were winning the AI race while Amazon was just trying to find its shoes. Not anymore. In the last quarter, AWS revenue jumped 20.2%, hitting a $33 billion run rate. That is the fastest growth we’ve seen from them since 2022.
It’s huge.
They aren't just selling cloud space anymore; they’re selling their own AI chips. Have you heard of Trainium2? Amazon is putting roughly 500,000 of these chips into their data centers. This matters because it makes them less dependent on Nvidia. If they can run AI cheaper than the other guys, their profit margins (which are already around 35% for AWS) could actually go up.
Andy Jassy, the CEO, isn't being shy about it either. He’s betting the farm on AI, with capital expenditures expected to hit $125 billion by the end of this year. That is a staggering amount of money. It’s basically the price of a small country’s GDP being poured into servers and power.
What analysts think is coming next
If you ask Wall Street, they’re still mostly in love with AMZN. Out of 61 analysts watching the stock, 56 of them are screaming "Buy."
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The price targets are pretty wild:
- Average Target: $295.96
- High Estimate: $360.00
- Low Estimate: $218.00
TD Cowen just bumped their target to $315, and Wells Fargo moved theirs to $301. They’re looking at the January 29, 2026 earnings report as the next big catalyst. If Amazon can show that their ad business—which grew 22% last quarter—is still a juggernaut, the stock might finally break out of this range.
Wait. Why is the ad business a juggernaut? Because Amazon is now a "pay-to-play" mall. More than 70% of sellers are now using Amazon Ads just to stay visible. It’s a brilliant, if slightly ruthless, business model. They take a cut of the sale, and they take a cut just to show the product to the customer.
The "Haul" and Grocery Gamble
Amazon is also trying to get into the "cheap stuff" game with their new platform, Haul. It’s a direct shot at the ultra-low-cost Chinese apps. Whether it works or not is a coin flip, but it shows they aren't willing to cede any territory. They’re also doubling down on groceries, expanding fresh delivery to over 1,000 cities.
It's a lot of spinning plates.
Real talk: Should you care about the price today?
Investing in Amazon at $239 feels different than it did five years ago. Back then, it was all about how many boxes they could ship. Today, it’s a cloud and advertising company that happens to have a delivery business attached to it.
If you’re looking at the amazon stock price right now as a short-term trade, it’s risky. The stock is volatile, and the P/E ratio is sitting around 33.7. That’s not "cheap" by traditional standards, even if it’s lower than its historical average.
However, the "backlog" for AWS is now $200 billion. That’s guaranteed revenue waiting to be collected over the next few years. That kind of visibility is rare.
Next Steps for Investors:
- Watch the January 29th Earnings: Pay attention to the "Operating Income" guidance. If it’s between $21 billion and $26 billion, the market will likely breathe a sigh of relief.
- Monitor the Capex: If they spend more than the projected $125 billion without a clear rise in AWS revenue, the stock could see a "valuation reset" (which is just a fancy way of saying it’ll drop).
- Check the Ad Growth: If advertising growth dips below 20%, it might mean the "pay-to-play" model is hitting a ceiling.
Keep an eye on the $230 level. It’s been a floor for a while now. If it breaks below that, something is fundamentally wrong. If it holds, we might just be looking at a coiled spring.