If you’ve been glued to mortgage tickers lately, you already know the vibe. It’s a bit of a rollercoaster. As of today, January 16, 2026, the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate is sitting at 6.62%.
That’s a jump. Specifically, it’s up 11 basis points from just last week when we were looking at a slightly more palatable 6.51%. Honestly, seeing that number tick upward feels like a gut punch if you were planning to pull the trigger on a loan adjustment this morning. But before you close the browser tab in a huff, we need to talk about why these numbers are moving and what the "real" rate looks like for your specific situation.
Breaking Down the Current Refinance Rate Numbers
The 30-year fixed is the headline act, but it's not the only show in town. If you’re looking to shave years off your debt, the 15-year fixed refinance rate is currently averaging 5.54%.
It’s creeping up too—only 4 basis points since last week—but that gap between the 15-year and 30-year is massive. We are talking about more than a full percentage point of difference. If you can stomach the higher monthly payment, the 15-year is where the real interest savings are hiding right now.
Then there’s the 5-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM). While the fixed rates are climbing, the 5-year ARM refinance rate actually dropped to 7.15%.
Wait, why is the ARM higher than the 30-year fixed?
It sounds backwards. Usually, you take the risk of an adjustable rate to get a lower entry point. But we are in a weird economic cycle. Lenders are pricing ARMs higher because they’re baked in with a lot of uncertainty about where the Fed will be in 2031. Basically, unless you have a very specific short-term strategy, the 30-year fixed is still the "safer" bet for most people, even with the recent hike.
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The Trump Factor and the Fed’s Shadow
Why did rates suddenly decide to get moody this week?
It’s a mix of politics and data. A surprise announcement from President Trump recently sent a ripple through the bond markets, which actually caused a temporary dip in purchase rates. But the refinance market is a different beast. Refi rates usually carry a "premium" over purchase rates—lenders view them as slightly higher risk or simply use them to balance their profit margins.
The Federal Reserve is also hovering over everything like a nervous parent. We’ve seen about 1.75 percentage points worth of cuts since late 2024, but the "last mile" of getting inflation down to that 2% target is proving to be a headache.
Jerome Powell is on his way out soon—his term ends in May 2026—and the market hates uncertainty. Investors are hedging their bets, which keeps the 10-year Treasury yield (the big brother that mortgage rates follow) stuck above 4%. When that yield doesn't move down, your refinance rate isn't going anywhere either.
Is It Even Worth It Right Now?
Let’s be real. If you bought your house in 2020 or 2021 with a 3% rate, you aren't refinancing. You’re staying put. You’ve got what economists call the "lock-in effect."
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But there’s a massive group of people who bought in 2023 or early 2024 when rates were screaming toward 8%. For those folks, 6.62% actually looks like a win.
Think about it this way:
If you’re sitting on an 8.01% loan for a $500,000 mortgage, your principal and interest is roughly $3,670.
Refinancing at today's 6.62% (assuming you have the credit and equity) drops that payment significantly. Even with the "high" current rates, you could be looking at saving several hundred dollars a month.
Why the "Average" Rate Might Lie to You
National averages are just that—averages. They include everyone from the person with a 780 FICO score and 40% equity to the person barely scraping by with a 620.
- Your Credit Score: If you’re at 740 or higher, you aren't paying 6.62%. You might see offers closer to 6.2% or even 5.9% if you’re willing to pay points.
- Equity is King: Lenders are being stingy. If you have less than 20% equity, you’re going to get hit with Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI), which effectively kills the benefit of a lower rate.
- Location Matters: Rates in Florida or Texas can look wildly different than those in the Midwest due to local bank competition and state-specific regulations.
What Most People Get Wrong About Refinancing
The biggest mistake? Waiting for the "bottom."
Everyone wants to catch that 5.7% rate that experts like Greg McBride at Bankrate are whispering about for later this year. And yeah, some forecasts suggest we might see 5.9% by December 2026. But if you wait 11 months to save an extra 0.3%, you might spend more in "overpaid" interest on your current high-rate loan than you’d ever save with the lower rate later.
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It’s a math problem, not a guessing game. You have to calculate your break-even point. If the closing costs for the refi are $6,000 and the new rate saves you $200 a month, you need to stay in that house for 30 months just to break even. If you plan to move in two years? Don't do it.
The Cash-Out Reality
We are seeing a massive shift toward cash-out refinances. Home values have stayed stubbornly high, and people are sitting on record amounts of equity.
But be careful here. A cash-out refi means you’re replacing your entire mortgage with today’s higher rate. If you have a 4% mortgage now and you need $50k for a kitchen remodel, do not refinance the whole loan.
Look at a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) or a Home Equity Loan instead. HELOC rates are currently averaging around 7.3%. While that sounds high, you’re only paying that rate on the $50k you borrowed, not the other $300k of your main mortgage. Switching a 4% primary mortgage to a 6.62% primary mortgage just to get some cash is a financial disaster for most households.
Actionable Steps to Take Today
The "current" rate is a moving target. If you’re seriously considering a move, stop watching the news and start doing the legwork.
- Check your "Real" Score: Don't rely on the "free" score your credit card gives you. You need your mortgage-specific FICO scores (usually FICO 2, 4, or 5). They are often lower than your "educational" score.
- Get a Closing Cost Worksheet: Ask a lender for a "Loan Estimate" (LE). It’s a standardized three-page document. It’s the only way to see the actual fees versus the "fluff."
- The 1% Rule of Thumb: Generally, if you can drop your rate by 1% or more, it’s worth a deep look. If you’re only dropping 0.5%, the closing costs might eat your lunch unless it’s a massive loan balance.
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury: If you see the 10-year Treasury yield (ticker: ^TNX) dropping toward 3.5%, get your paperwork ready. Mortgage rates will follow.
The market in early 2026 is tight, and lenders are hungry for business since purchase volume is still a bit sluggish. This gives you leverage. Use it to negotiate those origination fees. Just because the screen says 6.62% doesn't mean you have to settle for it.
Shop at least three lenders—a big bank, a local credit union, and an online mortgage broker. You'd be surprised how much the "current" rate changes when lenders have to compete for your signature.
Keep an eye on the January 28 Fed meeting. While a rate cut isn't likely, the "talk" afterward will set the tone for February. If they sound optimistic about inflation, we might see that 6.62% start to melt back toward the low 6s. If they sound worried? Lock in what you can now.