Honestly, the trade news coming out of the White House lately moves so fast it feels like you’re trying to read a stock ticker through a hurricane. One minute, we’re looking at 100% duties on everything from Italian leather to Chinese circuit boards, and the next, there’s talk of a "pause." People are confused. Businesses are panic-buying inventory.
So, did Trump pause tariffs?
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Basically, the answer is "sorta," but the devil is in the very expensive details. As of mid-January 2026, we are seeing a massive tug-of-war between aggressive new threats—like the wild Greenland-related tariffs announced just this weekend—and strategic pauses on critical materials meant to keep the U.S. stock market from diving off a cliff.
The Greenland Escalation and the New 10% Threat
If you haven’t checked the news in the last 48 hours, things just got weird. On Saturday, January 17, 2026, President Trump threw a massive wrench into transatlantic trade. He announced a 10% tariff on all goods from eight European countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland.
Why? Because of Greenland.
Trump is pushing for the "Complete and Total purchase" of the island, and these countries aren't exactly on board. He’s using tariffs as his primary leverage tool again. This isn't a pause; it's a full-throttle escalation. These duties are set to kick in on February 1, 2026, and if a deal isn't reached by June, he’s already threatened to crank them up to 25%.
Where the "Pause" Actually Happened
While the news about Europe is dominated by threats, there was a genuine sigh of relief on Wall Street this past Thursday. Trump decided to pause tariffs on critical minerals.
This was a big deal. For months, the manufacturing sector was terrified that essential materials—stuff needed for everything from EV batteries to fighter jets—would be hit with massive duties. By holding off on these specific tariffs, the administration signaled it isn't ready to completely choke out domestic production just yet.
Investors loved it. The S&P 500 futures jumped immediately. It’s a classic Trump move: use the heavy hammer on consumer goods or geopolitical rivals, but keep the "grease" flowing for the industries he wants to protect.
The China Reprieve: A Temporary Truce
We’ve also seen some strategic movement with Beijing. Back in late 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day reprieve on certain escalations.
- Port Fees: Paused on Chinese-linked vessels.
- Section 301 Investigations: Implementation for some sectors has been pushed back to late 2026.
- Fentanyl-related Duties: These are still active and very much not paused.
The Supreme Court Factor: The Ultimate Pause?
Right now, the most significant "pause" isn't coming from the Oval Office—it’s coming from the judicial branch. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently mulling over the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Since early 2025, Trump has used IEEPA to bypass Congress and slap duties on global partners by declaring national emergencies over things like trade deficits and border security. The courts are skeptical. There was a major hearing in November 2025, and a ruling is expected any day now.
If the Supreme Court rules these tariffs are an overreach of executive power, we could see a forced pause or even a total reversal of billions of dollars in duties. J.P. Morgan analysts have noted that IEEPA measures account for about 61% of the recent tariff hikes. If they get struck down, the administration will have to scramble for a "Plan B," likely using Section 122 to keep a 15% blanket rate for a few months while they figure things out.
What’s Happening with Canada and Mexico?
The North American trade scene is a bit of a "zombie" state. On February 3, 2025, there was a celebrated 30-day pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico. That was a long time ago in "Trump years."
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Currently, the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is keeping the worst of the tariffs at bay, but the relationship is fraying. Trump recently called the deal "irrelevant" during a tour of a Ford plant in Michigan. While most goods are still crossing the border duty-free under USMCA exemptions, the administration has already added a 10% "surcharge" on some Canadian goods. It’s a "soft" tariff environment—not a total pause, but not a full-blown trade war... yet.
Breaking Down the Current Tariff Status
To keep track of what is actually being paid versus what is "paused" or "threatened," you have to look at the specific legal authority being used.
| Product/Category | Status as of Jan 2026 | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Critical Minerals | Paused | 0% (Temporary) |
| 8 EU Countries (Greenland Issue) | Active Feb 1 | 10% (Rising to 25% in June) |
| Chinese Semiconductors | Implemented | 25% |
| Italian Pasta | Reduced | 2.26% - 13.89% (Down from 92%) |
| Kitchen Cabinets/Furniture | Paused Increase | 25% (Did NOT rise to 30%) |
| Russian/Venezuelan Oil | Targeted | 25% - 500% (Secondary sanctions) |
Practical Next Steps for Your Business
If you’re a business owner or an investor, you can't just wait for the next Truth Social post to react. The "pause" on critical minerals is a window of opportunity, not a permanent state of being.
1. Leverage the USMCA while it lasts. If you source from overseas, look at nearshoring to Mexico or Canada. Currently, about 89% of imports from these neighbors are hitting the "duty-free" exemption. That window might narrow as the July 2026 USMCA review approaches.
2. Audit your HTS codes. The Department of Commerce just dropped antidumping duties on Italian pasta from 92% to under 14%. Similar "micro-adjustments" are happening across dozens of categories. If your customs broker isn't checking for these weekly, you're literally throwing money away.
3. Prepare for "Plan B" (The SCOTUS Ruling). If the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs, be ready to file for refunds. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has already announced they will issue all refunds electronically via ACH starting in February. Make sure your account is set up and verified now.
4. Hedge against the February 1st "Europe Shock." If you import from the UK, Germany, or France, you have less than two weeks before that 10% hit lands. If you can pull shipments forward and get them "entered for consumption" before the end of the month, do it.
The reality is that "pausing" is a tactic, not a policy. It’s the carrot used right before the stick. Stay agile, keep your cash reserves liquid, and don't assume any "pause" is going to last longer than a few weeks.