You’ve probably seen the headlines. For a while there, it looked like Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) was heading straight for a total wipeout. After the catastrophic Maui wildfires in August 2023, the stock didn't just dip—it cratered. We’re talking about a utility company that was once a "widow and orphan" staple, known for steady dividends and a monopoly on island power, suddenly staring down billions in potential liabilities. Honestly, it was a mess.
But here we are in January 2026, and the vibe has shifted. It’s not "business as usual," but it’s definitely not the bankruptcy-court funeral many predicted two years ago.
If you’re looking at Hawaiian Electric Industries stock today, you’re seeing a price hovering around $14.45. That might look puny compared to the $40+ days of early 2023, but it’s a massive recovery from the single-digit lows near $8.00 that we saw when things were at their darkest. People are starting to wonder if the "worst-case scenario" is finally off the table. Let’s get into the weeds of what’s actually happening with the money, the lawsuits, and the power lines.
The $4 Billion Question and the "Global Settlement"
The biggest hurdle for the stock has always been the legal fallout from the Lahaina disaster. You can’t have a wildfire that destroys a historic town and kills over 100 people without a mountain of litigation. For a long time, the sheer uncertainty of that number kept the stock in the gutter.
In late 2024 and through 2025, a massive $4.037 billion global settlement was hammered out. Hawaiian Electric isn't paying that whole bill alone—it's shared with the state of Hawaii, Maui County, and Kamehameha Schools—but their share is massive.
The interesting part? The market actually liked the clarity.
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Investors hate a mystery. Once the $4 billion figure was out there, analysts could finally build a spreadsheet that didn't have "Infinity" in the liability column. The settlement involves payments spread over several years, which is basically the only reason the company is still solvent. If they had to write a $2 billion check on day one, they’d be done. Instead, the first major payments are rolling out now, in early 2026.
Why the Shareholder Settlement Matters
Just recently, in early January 2026, the company reached a $47.75 million preliminary settlement specifically with its own shareholders. This was for a separate class-action suit alleging that executives misled investors about their wildfire mitigation efforts before the fire.
Is $48 million a lot? In the grand scheme of a multi-billion dollar disaster, no. But it’s another "leak" plugged in the ship. Most of this is being covered by insurance anyway, which is a huge relief for the balance sheet.
The Numbers Nobody is Talking About
When you look at the Q3 2025 earnings that came out a couple of months ago, something weird happened. They actually beat expectations. The consensus was a loss, but they reported an EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $0.19.
Revenue hit over $790 million. It turns out that while the parent company is bleeding legal fees, the utility itself is still, well, a utility. People in Honolulu still need lights. People in Hilo still need to charge their phones.
- Market Cap: Around $2.5 billion.
- 52-Week Range: $8.75 to $15.05.
- Next Earnings Date: Roughly February 20, 2026.
Here is the kicker: the company is basically a tale of two cities. On one side, you have the utility (Hawaiian Electric), which is under fire. On the other, you have American Savings Bank. The bank is actually a solid performer. There’s been constant talk about HEI "monetizing" or selling off a stake in the bank to raise cash for the wildfire payments. In fact, management recently mentioned they are looking at selling about a 9.9% stake in the bank within the next few months.
Is the Dividend Ever Coming Back?
Short answer: Don’t hold your breath.
Long answer: Hawaiian Electric suspended its dividend in late 2023 to preserve cash. For a utility stock, that’s usually a death sentence for the share price because the only reason people buy utilities is for that fat check every quarter. Right now, every spare cent is being funneled into two things:
- The Wildfire Settlement Fund.
- Grid Hardening.
They are spending hundreds of millions—roughly $350 million over a three-year plan—to make sure this never happens again. We’re talking about AI-assisted cameras for smoke detection and replacing bare overhead wires with "covered conductors" (insulated wires) so they don't spark when a branch hits them.
Until the settlement payments are further down the road and the grid is "hardened" to the satisfaction of the Public Utilities Commission (PUC), that dividend is likely staying at zero.
What Most People Get Wrong About HE Stock
There is a common assumption that the state of Hawaii would never let its primary utility go bankrupt.
That’s a dangerous gamble.
While the state did pass SB 897, which allows for securitization (basically low-interest bonds backed by customers' bills) to help pay for safety upgrades, it isn't a total "get out of jail free" card. The company still has to execute. If they miss a payment or if another fire breaks out during a windstorm, the political "shield" could disappear fast.
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Also, some traders get confused between HE (Hawaiian Electric Industries) and HEI (Heico Corp). Heico is an aerospace company that is doing great and pays a dividend. Don’t be the person who buys the wrong "HE" ticker because you saw a headline about aerospace growth. Different worlds.
The 2026 Outlook: What’s Next?
We’re entering a "show me" phase. The stock has doubled from its lows, but it’s hitting a ceiling. Analysts are mostly sitting on the sidelines with "Hold" ratings. The median price target is sitting around $11.00 to $12.00, which actually suggests the stock might be a bit overextended at its current $14.45 price point.
The market has priced in the "survival" of the company. Now it has to price in the "recovery."
Recovery is much slower than a crash. It involves years of regulatory hearings, rebuilding Lahaina's grid from scratch, and dealing with a debt-to-equity ratio that is, frankly, pretty ugly (currently over 220%).
Actionable Strategy for 2026
If you’re holding HE stock or thinking about it, keep your eyes on these three specific things:
- The American Savings Bank Stake Sale: If they get a good price for that 9.9% stake, it proves they have "dry powder" to pay the settlement without massive share dilution.
- The PUC Rebasing Proposal: Due around now (January 2026), this will determine how much of the safety costs can be passed on to customers. If the PUC is stingy, HEI’s margins will stay in the basement.
- The Hawaii Supreme Court: Keep an eye on any rulings regarding "inverse condemnation." If the court decides the utility is liable for damages even without proof of negligence, the financial math changes for the worse.
Ultimately, Hawaiian Electric Industries is no longer a "widow and orphan" stock. It’s a high-stakes turnaround play. It’s for people who believe in the long-term infrastructure of the islands and can stomach the fact that the next few years will be defined by courtroom sketches and regulatory filings rather than growth and dividends.
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The immediate bankruptcy threat has faded, but the path back to the $40 mark is blocked by a $4 billion wall.
Next Steps for Investors:
Review your portfolio's exposure to the utility sector and ensure you aren't over-leveraged in "distressed" assets. If you are looking for a recovery play, watch the February 2026 earnings call closely for updates on the ASB stake sale and the finalization of the first settlement installment. Verify the ticker symbol (NYSE: HE) before placing any trades to avoid confusion with the aerospace firm Heico (HEI).