If you’ve been watching the ticker today, January 14, 2026, you’ve probably noticed NVIDIA is doing that thing it does again—keeping everyone on their toes. Honestly, the stock is currently hovering around $185.80, which is up about 0.47% from yesterday's close. It’s a modest green day, but in the world of NVDA, even a "flat" day usually has a massive story bubbling underneath the surface.
Most people look at the price and think "growth is slowing" because we aren't seeing those 10% daily rips from a few years back. But that’s a trap. We’re looking at a company with a market cap of roughly $4.5 trillion. When you’re that big, moving the needle takes an ungodly amount of capital. What’s actually happening today is a classic tug-of-war between some really spicy news out of China and the massive rollout of the new Rubin architecture.
The China Factor: Why the H200 News Is Everywhere
So, why is everyone talking about exports today? Basically, the U.S. Commerce Department just gave NVIDIA the "green light" to start shipping H200 chips to China again, but—and there's always a but—it comes with a lot of fine print. These aren't the top-tier, "super-illegal-to-export" chips. They’re about 18 months behind the bleeding edge.
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Still, for investors asking how is nvda stock doing today, this is the primary driver of the morning's volume.
The deal requires NVIDIA to pay a 25% revenue-sharing fee to the U.S. government on these sales. It sounds steep, right? But analysts like Chris Caso at Wolfe Research aren't sweating it. China represents a "black hole" of demand that’s been mostly empty for NVIDIA lately. Even with the fees, unlocking that market could bring in an extra $40 billion in revenue this year. That’s not pocket change, even for Jensen Huang.
The Rubin Revolution and the "Inference Shift"
While the headlines are focused on trade wars, the real "nerd" reason the stock is holding steady is the Rubin architecture. We’re moving past the Blackwell era. Blackwell was about training these massive models, but 2026 is officially the year of inference—actually running the AI.
Rubin is built specifically for this. It’s got the Vera CPU and HBM4 memory, which is a technical way of saying it’s 5x faster at running AI tasks than the stuff we had last year.
- Training: Building the brain (Blackwell's job).
- Inference: Using the brain (Rubin's job).
- The Bottom Line: Companies are realizing they can't just build AI; they have to afford to run it. Rubin lowers that cost, which keeps NVIDIA's 90% market share safe from guys like AMD.
Is NVDA Overvalued? What the Numbers Actually Say
You’ve probably heard people screaming "bubble" since 2023. They’ve been wrong for three years. Right now, NVIDIA’s forward P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio is sitting around 24 to 46, depending on which analyst's 2026 projections you trust.
Interestingly, its PEG ratio—which measures price against actual growth—is at a year-low of 0.72. In the investing world, a PEG under 1.0 often means a stock is technically undervalued.
It’s kind of wild to say a $4.5 trillion company is "undervalued," but when your revenue grows 62% year-over-year, the math starts to justify the hype. Jensen Huang recently pointed out that there’s $10 trillion in "old" data center equipment that still needs to be swapped out for AI-ready gear. We aren't even halfway through that upgrade cycle.
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What the Big Banks Are Doing
Wall Street is still mostly a sea of "Buy" ratings.
- Morgan Stanley just reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target near $240.
- Mizuho is even more aggressive, eyeing $250.
- The "Laggard" Argument: Some analysts are actually calling NVDA an "AI laggard" for 2026 because it only went up 39% last year while some smaller chip stocks tripled.
It’s all relative. If you’re a long-term holder, a 39% "down year" is something most people would kill for.
Sovereign AI: The New Secret Weapon
There is a huge part of the NVIDIA story that most retail investors completely ignore: Sovereign AI.
Nations like Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the UK are tired of relying on American cloud providers like Amazon or Google. They want their own "AI Factories" inside their own borders. They’re buying NVIDIA hardware directly to build national infrastructure.
This isn't just about ChatGPT anymore. It’s about national security and data sovereignty. This segment alone is expected to dump another $20 billion into NVIDIA's coffers by the end of this year. When you ask how is nvda stock doing today, you have to look beyond just "tech bros" using AI—it's now a tool for world governments.
Real Risks: What Could Actually Go Wrong?
I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't mention the red flags. It’s not all sunshine and H200s.
First off, the "Air Pocket" Theory. Some critics worry that big tech companies (the "hyperscalers") will eventually finish their big builds and just... stop buying. If that happens in late 2026, NVIDIA could hit a demand wall.
Then there's the Custom Chip Threat. Amazon (AWS) and Google (TPU) are getting much better at making their own chips. They’re still NVIDIA’s biggest customers, but they’re also becoming its biggest long-term competitors. If Meta or Microsoft decides their in-house chips are "good enough," NVIDIA loses its biggest whales.
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Actionable Insights for Today
If you’re looking at your portfolio today, don't get distracted by the tiny 0.4% fluctuations. Here is what actually matters for your next moves:
- Watch the $180 Support Level: If the stock dips below $180, it might trigger some technical selling, but historically, this has been a "buy the dip" zone for institutions.
- Monitor TSM Earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reports soon. Since they literally make NVIDIA’s chips, their outlook on "CoWoS" packaging capacity will tell you more about NVIDIA’s future than NVIDIA’s own PR.
- Check the PEG Ratio: Don't just look at the share price. If the PEG stays under 1.0, the stock is technically "cheaper" than it was two years ago, relative to its earnings.
- February 24 is the Big One: Mark your calendar for the next earnings call. That’s when we’ll get the first hard data on how the Rubin rollout is affecting the bottom line.
NVIDIA isn't just a "chip company" anymore. It’s the toll booth for the entire intelligence economy. Whether you think it’s a bubble or the future of humanity, today’s price action shows that the market is still very much betting on the latter.