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If you’ve taken a look at your portfolio lately, you’ve probably noticed that the John Deere stock ticker (DE) is acting a bit like a tractor stuck in some thick Midwest mud. It’s heavy. It’s sluggish. And honestly, it’s frustrating for anyone who bought in thinking that "food is a forever business" would lead to "forever gains."
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the price of John Deere stock is hovering around $512.69.
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That might sound like a big number if you’re comparing it to some penny stock, but if you've been following the cycle, you know DE is fighting an uphill battle. Just a few months ago, the company basically told the world that 2026 is going to be the "bottom" of the cycle for large agricultural equipment. When a CEO says "bottom," it’s a polite way of saying things aren't great, but we hope they won't get worse.
The Reality of the $500 Price Tag
Let's be real for a second. Most folks look at the $512 price and think it's expensive. But "price" and "value" are two different beasts.
The current P/E ratio is sitting around 26.45. If you look back at Deere’s history over the last decade, their average is usually closer to 18 or 19. This means you’re actually paying a premium for a company that just saw its annual net income drop from over $7 billion in 2024 to about $5 billion in 2025.
Why the disconnect?
It’s about the tech. Investors aren't just buying steel and yellow paint anymore. They’re buying into autonomous tractors and "See & Spray" technology that can identify a weed in a field of a million crops and hit it with a laser-guided squirt of herbicide. That tech is what’s keeping the floor under the price of John Deere stock.
The Elephant in the Room: Tariffs and Trade
You can't talk about Deere without talking about the geopolitical mess.
Deere is getting hit from two sides. First, there are the direct costs. The company is bracing for a massive $1.2 billion in tariff expenses for fiscal 2026. That’s double what they paid in 2025. When the cost of steel and parts goes up, Deere has two choices: eat the cost (which kills profit) or raise prices (which kills sales).
Neither is a win.
Then you have the farmers. If you’re a corn or soybean farmer in Iowa, your margins are thinner than a sheet of paper right now. Low commodity prices mean farmers aren't rushing out to buy a $600,000 X9 Combine. They’re fixing their old 2018 models and waiting for better days.
John May, Deere’s CEO, admitted as much during the November 2025 earnings call. He pointed out that while Small Ag and Construction are doing "okay," the Big Ag segment—the heart of the company—is expected to be down another 15% to 20% in the U.S. and Canada this year.
Is the Dividend Enough to Keep You?
For the "buy and hold" crowd, the dividend is usually the silver lining. Deere has been paying out for 55 years straight.
- Current Dividend Yield: ~1.26%
- Annual Payout: Roughly $5.88 per share
- Payout Ratio: Very safe, usually under 30%
It’s not a "get rich quick" yield, but it’s reliable. If the price of John Deere stock stays flat while you wait for the 2027 recovery, at least you’re getting paid to sit there.
Wall Street’s Mixed Signals
If you ask ten analysts where this stock is going, you’ll get twelve different answers.
Analysts at Oppenheimer recently raised their target to $566, arguing that the recent selloffs created a great entry point. They’re looking at 2026 as a setup year for a massive 2027.
On the flip side, you’ve got firms like Schwab Network where analysts have been much more bearish, with some even slapping a $400 target on it due to those pesky tariff pressures.
The consensus? Most believe the "fair value" is somewhere around $526. So, at $512, you're buying it at a slight discount to its supposed value, but you have to be willing to stomach some volatility.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you're watching the price of John Deere stock, don't just stare at the ticker. Watch these three things instead:
- Corn and Soybean Prices: If grain prices move up, Deere stock follows. It’s the most basic correlation in the book.
- The "Used" Market: Right now, there is a glut of used equipment on dealer lots. Until that clears out, nobody is buying new machines.
- Software Revenue: Deere wants to be a "platform" company. They want farmers to pay a subscription for their data and autonomy features. If that revenue grows, the P/E ratio stays high.
Actionable Next Steps
If you already own Deere, don't panic sell just because the 2026 guidance was weak. The company is "structurally" better than it was during the last downturn in 2016. Their margins are higher even with lower sales.
If you're looking to buy, you might want to dollar-cost average. Don't throw your whole nut in at once. Buy a little now, and keep some dry powder in case the tariff news gets worse before it gets better.
Finally, keep an eye on the Construction & Forestry division. It’s the quiet hero of the portfolio right now, growing at about 10% while the tractor business takes a nap. Diversification is the only reason the price of John Deere stock hasn't completely cratered.
The bottom of the cycle is a test of patience. Most people fail it. Those who don't usually end up pretty happy when the green machines start rolling again.