If you’ve been watching the ticker for Li Auto in Hong Kong (2015.HK), you know the vibe is... tense. It’s been a rough ride lately. Just this week, as of mid-January 2026, the stock has been hovering around the HK$62.80 to HK$64.00 mark. That’s a far cry from the triple-digit glory days investors were dreaming about a year ago. Honestly, looking at the charts feels a bit like watching a high-stakes poker game where the house keeps raising the blinds.
The market is reacting to some pretty blunt reality checks. Citi recently trimmed their price target for the Hong Kong shares down to HK$71.1, citing a bit of an "aging" issue with the current L-series lineup. It turns out, even in the fast-paced world of Chinese EVs, you can’t just coast on last year’s hits.
The delivery drama and the 2025 "Waterloo"
Last year was supposed to be the breakout. Instead, some analysts are calling 2025 Li Auto's "Waterloo." They delivered about 406,000 units, which sounds like a lot until you realize it was only roughly 64% of their original target.
Missing a target by that much usually sends institutional investors running for the exits, or at least toward the "Sell" button. The primary culprit? Competition. Not just from Tesla, but from the Huawei-backed AITO M7. That car basically walked onto Li Auto’s home turf and started eating their lunch by offering similar "spaciousness plus intelligence" features at a killer price point.
Li Xiang, the CEO, hasn't been sitting still, though. To stay in the game, the company actually killed off the Li Auto ONE early—paying a massive 1 billion yuan in supplier compensation just to clear the deck for the L8. It was a brutal, expensive move. But it shows they're willing to cut off a limb to save the body.
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Why 2015.HK feels like a rollercoaster right now
Investing in Hong Kong stocks is already a bit of a sport, but Li Auto adds a layer of "wait, what?" volatility.
- The BEV Pivot: Li Auto made its name on Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs)—basically EVs with a gas backup. They’re now trying to master pure Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), like the Li MEGA. It’s been... a journey. Transitions are never free, and the market is pricing in that uncertainty.
- The "Smart ICE" Comeback: Here’s something nobody expected: gas cars are getting smarter. In 2025, traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles actually saw a mini-resurgence in China. Brands like Geely and Volkswagen started stuffing their gas cars with the same smart cockpits and driver assistance that used to be exclusive to Li Auto.
- The Profitability Club: Despite the stock price drama, Li Auto is still one of the few Chinese EV makers that actually knows how to make a profit. They joined the club with Tesla and BYD back in 2023. Even with a surprise loss in Q3 2025 (reporting an EPS of -HK$0.05 against expectations of a gain), they have a massive cash pile.
Technicals: Is there a floor?
If you're a chart person, the 200-day moving average for the Hong Kong listing is sitting around HK$68.93. Since the price is currently trading below that, the technical signal is technically "Sell" for many traders. It’s currently testing the 52-week low of HK$62.20.
If it breaks below that HK$62 level? We might be looking at a much longer winter. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 37, which is getting close to "oversold" territory. Basically, the rubber band is stretched pretty tight.
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What most people get wrong about the Li Stock Hong Kong outlook
The common narrative is that "the EV war is over and Li lost." That’s a bit dramatic.
The real story is a shift from "who can grow fastest" to "who can survive a zero-sum game." China’s NEV (New Energy Vehicle) market is expected to hit a 27.5% share globally by the end of 2026. There is still a massive pie to eat. The problem is that the "Minimum Price System" being discussed by the EU to replace tariffs might help exports, but the domestic price war in China is still a meat grinder.
Practical steps for 2015.HK watchers
If you're holding or looking to jump in, don't just stare at the daily price.
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- Watch the March 13, 2026 Earnings Call: This is the big one. Analysts are projecting an EPS of $0.05. If they miss this, or if the guidance for the rest of 2026 is weak, expect more "sell" ratings from the big banks.
- Monitor the "Smart ICE" Trend: If gas-powered SUVs continue to gain market share in the 100k-200k yuan bracket, Li Auto might have to cut prices even further on their entry-level models to stay relevant.
- Check the 10-Year Treasury: It sounds boring, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has been creeping up (around 5 basis points recently). When yields go up, high-growth "risky" tech stocks in Hong Kong usually feel the squeeze first.
- Look for the L-Series Refresh: The market is bored with the current L7, L8, and L9. Any news of a major hardware or software "Gen 2" update will be the primary catalyst for a trend reversal.
The bottom line is that Li Auto is currently in a "show me" phase. They have the cash and the tech, but the 2025 "Waterloo" left a bad taste in investors' mouths. Until they prove they can out-innovate the Huawei ecosystem, the stock is likely to remain a battleground between optimistic value hunters and skeptical trend traders.