If you’ve been watching the Lightspeed TSX stock price lately, you’re probably feeling that specific kind of "tech investor fatigue." You know the one. It’s that feeling of watching a company do almost everything right—hit $1 billion in revenue, buy back millions of shares, and clean up the balance sheet—only to see the ticker sit there like it’s stuck in digital mud.
Markets are weird. Honestly, they’re often irrational.
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As of mid-January 2026, LSPD.TO is hovering around the $16.24 CAD mark. It’s a far cry from the triple-digit glory days of the pandemic, and if you’re looking at the one-year chart, the roughly 24% drop is enough to make anyone wince. But here’s the thing: the price on the screen isn’t always telling the same story as the business in the building.
The Reality Behind the Lightspeed TSX Stock Price
A lot of people think Lightspeed is still just that "Montreal startup" trying to fight Square. It’s not. It’s grown into a massive, unified commerce engine that handled over $25 billion in gross transaction volume (GTV) in just the last quarter of 2025.
The stock price is currently caught in a tug-of-war between two very different groups. On one side, you have the "Bulls" who see a company finally growing up. They point to the 15% year-over-year revenue growth and the fact that the company is finally pumping out real Adjusted Free Cash Flow—about $18 million in the most recent reporting period.
On the other side, the "Bears" are worried about the "macro." That’s just a fancy way of saying they’re scared people will stop eating out and buying expensive bikes. Since Lightspeed's bread and butter is North American retail and European hospitality, any sign of a recession makes investors jumpy.
Why the Price Isn’t Moving (Yet)
You've probably heard the rumors. For months, everyone was whispering about a potential sale. In late 2024 and early 2025, Lightspeed went through a massive "strategic review." People thought a private equity firm or a bigger tech giant would swoop in and buy the whole thing.
It didn't happen.
Founder Dax Dasilva—who came back as CEO to steer the ship—made it clear in February 2025: Lightspeed is staying public. While that’s great for the company’s independence, it disappointed the "quick buck" crowd who wanted an immediate buyout premium.
Understanding the "Unified Payments" Bet
If you want to understand where the Lightspeed TSX stock price is headed, you have to look at their "Payments" attach rate. This is the secret sauce.
Basically, Lightspeed used to just sell the software (the brain). Now, they insist that new customers use their payment processing (the blood). This makes the revenue much "stickier." In the last year, Gross Payment Volume (GPV) as a percentage of total GTV hit 43%. That’s a huge jump from a few years ago.
- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): It’s up to roughly $685.
- Customer Locations: They’ve got about 146,000 storefronts using the tech.
- The Focus: They’ve stopped trying to be everything to everyone. They’re doubling down on "complex" businesses—think golf courses, high-end boutiques, and multi-location restaurants.
What the Analysts are Saying for 2026
If you ask ten different analysts where the Lightspeed TSX stock price is going, you’ll get twelve different answers. It’s a polarizing stock.
Currently, the consensus is a "Hold." Out of about 15-20 analysts tracking the stock, the majority are waiting for "proof of life" in terms of consistent GAAP profitability. However, the price targets are interesting. The average target sits around $20.36 CAD, with some aggressive bulls looking at $29.00 and the bears bottoming out near $13.80.
There’s a massive gap between the current price ($16ish) and that $20 average target. That’s a 25% potential upside if the market decides to stop being grumpy.
The Competition Factor
Lightspeed isn't alone in the playground.
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- Shopify: The king of eCommerce. If you’re mostly online, you use Shopify. Lightspeed is winning when the physical store is the main event.
- Toast: Their biggest rival in the restaurant space. Toast is a beast, but Lightspeed has a much stronger foothold in Europe.
- Square: Great for the coffee shop on the corner. Not so great for a high-end apparel store with 10 locations and complex inventory.
The Dax Dasilva Factor: A Founder's Return
When a founder returns, it usually means one of two things: the company is in trouble, or it's time to go back to basics. For Lightspeed, it seems to be the latter. Dasilva has been cutting the fat. They laid off about 200 people in late 2024 to "redeploy" those funds into AI and outbound sales.
They also did something most struggling tech companies don't do: they bought back their own stock. Between 2024 and 2025, they repurchased about 12% of the company. When a company buys back its own shares at these prices, they’re basically saying, "We think the market is wrong, and we’re putting our money where our mouth is."
Is the Stock Undervalued?
Look, "undervalued" is a dangerous word in the stock market. But let’s look at the numbers. Lightspeed has over $460 million in cash and zero debt. Their market cap is hovering around $2.2 billion.
If you strip out the cash, the market is valuing the actual business operations at a very low multiple compared to its peers. The "discount" is there because investors are tired of the net losses. Even though Adjusted EBITDA is positive (expected to hit at least $70 million for fiscal 2026), the "bottom line" net loss still looks scary on paper due to old acquisitions and "goodwill impairment" charges.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re holding LSPD.TO or thinking about jumping in, don't just stare at the daily ticker. That’s a recipe for a headache. Instead, watch these three specific things:
- The $500k Club: Watch the growth of customers with over $500,000 in annual GTV. These are the "sophisticated" customers that don't churn. If this number grows, the stock eventually follows.
- The $17.50 Resistance: On a technical level, the stock has struggled to break and hold above the $17.50 - $18.00 range. A clean break above that with high volume usually signals a trend reversal.
- European Hospitality Trends: Since a huge chunk of their growth is coming from European restaurants using the "O-Series" and "K-Series" platforms, keep an eye on Euro-zone consumer spending.
The Lightspeed TSX stock price is currently a "show me" story. The company has shown it can make money on an adjusted basis. Now, it has to show the market that it can grow locations without spending every cent it makes on marketing.
If you’re looking for a lottery ticket, this probably isn't it. But if you’re looking for a core commerce platform that is trading at a significant discount to its historical averages—and its peers—it’s one of the more interesting "recovery" plays on the TSX right now.
Next Steps for You:
Check the next earnings release date (usually early February). Specifically, look at the "Subscription Revenue" growth. If subscription revenue starts accelerating past 10-12%, it means their software is winning on its own merit, not just because they’re forcing people into their payment processing.