If you’ve been watching the tickers today, you noticed Oracle (ORCL) isn't just sitting there. It’s moving. Specifically, it's moving up. After a rough patch that saw the tech giant shed nearly a third of its value since last September, the market is finally exhaling.
Why? It’s not just one thing. It's a mix of "we oversold this" and "holy crap, look at that backlog."
Honestly, the big driver today is a massive vote of confidence from KeyBanc. Analyst Jackson Ader came out swinging this morning with a $300 price target. He basically told investors that the market is "yelling into the void" by ignoring how cheap the stock has become.
The Valuation Gap: Why Oracle Stock Is Up Today
The math is actually pretty straightforward, even if the market ignored it for a while. KeyBanc breaks Oracle into two pieces. First, you have the "old" Oracle—the databases and apps that have been around forever. That part is worth about $125 a share.
Then you have the sexy part: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).
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Right now, the market is pricing OCI at about 3.5 times its revenue. For context, "neocloud" companies like CoreWeave or Nebius trade at much higher multiples. Ader argues that if you gave Oracle’s cloud the same respect as its younger rivals, that segment alone is worth $135 to $140 per share.
Add them up? You get a stock that should be trading way higher than $200.
Investors are finally biting. They’re realizing that even with the massive debt Oracle took on to build data centers, the revenue is already "in the house."
Those Insane Backlog Numbers
You might have missed it in the flurry of 2025 year-end reports, but Oracle’s Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)—basically the stuff they’ve signed contracts for but haven't billed yet—is sitting at a staggering $523 billion.
That’s half a trillion dollars.
- OpenAI is reportedly on the hook for a $300 billion infrastructure deal over five years.
- NVIDIA and Meta are funneling billions into Oracle’s GPU clusters.
- Multi-cloud database revenue (running Oracle on AWS, Google, or Azure) grew 817% last quarter.
It’s hard to stay bearish on a company when they have more work than they can physically handle. Today’s jump is a realization that the "risk" of Oracle spending $50 billion on data centers this year is balanced by the fact that the customers are already waiting at the door.
The "AI Warehouse" Pivot
Oracle used to be the "boring" database company. Now? It's basically a landlord for AI.
They handed over 400 megawatts of data center capacity last quarter. They’re shipping 96,000 NVIDIA Blackwell units. They are building 72 "multicloud" data centers that sit inside their competitors' buildings.
It’s a weird, aggressive strategy. Larry Ellison basically decided that if you can’t beat Amazon and Microsoft, you should just put your hardware in their basement and charge their customers for it. It’s working.
What People Are Still Worried About
Look, it’s not all sunshine. Some big names, including Michael Burry (the "Big Short" guy), have reportedly taken short positions or bought puts on Oracle. The bear case is simple: debt.
Oracle has about $95 billion in debt related to this massive expansion. If the AI bubble pops and OpenAI can’t pay that $300 billion tab, Oracle is left holding a lot of very expensive, very hot silicon.
But for today, the market doesn't care. The "undervalued" narrative is winning.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you're looking at your portfolio and wondering if you missed the boat, keep a few things in mind. The gap between the current price (around $202) and that $300 target is wide.
Watch the Capex: If Oracle increases its spending again in the next earnings call, the stock might dip temporarily. The market hates high spending, even if it leads to high growth later.
The "Ex-Dividend" Factor: Oracle just went ex-dividend on January 9th. The $0.50 per share payout is coming on January 23rd. While that’s not a huge yield (around 1%), it shows the company is still generating enough cash to keep the lights on and pay the fans while they build their AI empire.
Check the Multi-Cloud Adoption: The real "moat" isn't the GPUs—it’s the fact that companies can’t leave Oracle databases. Now that those databases are available natively on AWS and Google Cloud, the "stickiness" is higher than ever.
The move today is a classic "mean reversion." The stock got beat up too much, the fundamentals remained solid, and a major analyst pointed out the obvious.
If you're holding, you're likely feeling good. If you're looking to entry, watch for a support level around $195. If it stays above that, the path to $240 (the Goldman Sachs target) or even $300 looks a lot clearer than it did last week.
Next Steps for Investors
- Review your exposure to "Hyperscalers." If you already own a lot of Microsoft or Amazon, Oracle offers a different way to play the same AI infrastructure boom.
- Monitor the "RPO to Revenue" conversion. The $523 billion backlog is great, but watch for how fast that turns into actual quarterly sales. If that conversion slows down, the stock will stall.
- Set a "Debt Watch" alert. Keep an eye on Oracle's interest expenses. As long as they stay investment-grade, the build-out continues. If they get a credit downgrade, exit the building.