You’ve likely seen the grid. It’s that familiar three-by-three square that pops up in every succession planning meeting and talent review across the corporate world. On one axis, you have performance. On the other, potential. It looks simple. Almost too simple. And that is exactly where the trouble starts for most managers.
The nine box talent grid isn't a magic wand. It’s a snapshot. Honestly, if you’re treating it like a permanent label for your employees, you’re probably doing more harm than good. I’ve seen companies get so bogged down in the mechanics of "who goes where" that they forget the whole point is to actually develop people, not just file them away into boxes like folders in a dusty cabinet.
McKinsey & Company originally developed this concept back in the 1970s—initially as the GE-McKinsey Matrix—to help General Electric manage its massive portfolio of business units. It wasn't even meant for people at first. It was for products. We eventually pivoted and realized that the same logic could apply to human capital. But humans are messy. We don’t always fit into a 2D square.
What the Nine Box Talent Grid Actually Measures (and What It Doesn't)
Let’s get real about the axes. Performance is the easy part. You look at the KPIs. You look at the sales targets. Did they hit the mark? It’s backward-looking. It tells you what happened over the last six to twelve months.
Potential is the wildcard.
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This is where things get subjective and, frankly, where bias creeps in. Potential is an educated guess about the future. It’s the "could they do more?" factor. According to research by the Korn Ferry Institute, potential is often defined by traits like curiosity, insight, engagement, and determination. But in a typical boardroom, "potential" often just means "this person reminds me of a younger version of myself." That’s a dangerous trap.
The Nine Categories Explained Simply
If we’re looking at the grid, we usually start at the bottom left and work our way up.
- The Underperformers (Bottom Left): Low performance, low potential. These are your "Rough Diamonds" or, more bluntly, people who are in the wrong role. It’s not always a firing offense; sometimes they just need a different seat on the bus.
- The Core Players (Middle): These are the folks who keep the lights on. They are consistent. They are reliable. They might not be the next CEO, but without them, the company falls apart.
- The Stars (Top Right): High performance, high potential. These are your future leaders. They’re the ones you’re terrified will get a better offer from a competitor.
But what about the "High Potential, Low Performance" box? This is the most frustrating square in the nine box talent grid. It’s the person who clearly has the brains and the drive but is currently flailing. Maybe they have a bad manager. Maybe their personal life is a wreck. If you ignore them, you’re wasting talent. If you promote them, you’re rewarding failure. It's a tightrope.
Why Calibration Is Where the Real Work Happens
You can’t just have managers fill out a spreadsheet in isolation and call it a day. That leads to "grade inflation." Every manager thinks their team is full of stars because it makes them look like a better coach.
Calibration meetings are the secret sauce. This is where a group of leaders sits in a room (or a Zoom call) and debates the placements. It gets heated. It’s supposed to. When one director says, "Sarah is a Top Talent," and another director says, "Actually, Sarah’s team hates working with her and her projects are always late," that’s where the truth comes out.
The goal isn't consensus for the sake of being nice. It’s accuracy. Without these tough conversations, the nine box talent grid is just a colorful piece of paper that nobody believes in.
The Bias Problem: Let's Talk About It
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Subjectivity.
If your leadership team is largely homogenous, they will naturally see "potential" in people who look, speak, and act like them. This is how "mini-me" syndrome destroys diversity. A study by the Harvard Business Review highlighted how "potential" is often a code word for cultural fit, which can inadvertently exclude marginalized groups who don't fit the traditional corporate mold.
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To fix this, you need data. Don’t just ask "Does this person have potential?" Ask "Have they shown the ability to learn a new skill in the last six months?" or "How do they handle ambiguity?" Specificity kills bias.
Common Mistakes That Kill the Process
I've seen HR departments spend six months preparing for a talent review only for the results to sit in a PDF for the rest of the year.
Mistake #1: Treating it as a Secret.
Should you tell employees which box they are in? It’s a polarizing question. Some companies, like Netflix, are big on radical transparency. Others think telling someone they are "Low Potential" is a motivation killer. Honestly, if you aren't going to tell them their box, you at least owe them a conversation about the criteria. People aren't stupid. They know where they stand.
Mistake #2: The One-and-Done Mentality.
People change. A "Star" this year might go through a divorce or burnout and drop to "Core Player" next year. That's fine. Life happens. The grid has to be fluid. If someone is stuck in the "Low/Low" box for three years, that’s not a talent problem; that’s a management failure to take action.
Mistake #3: No Follow-Up Action.
The grid is a diagnostic tool, not the cure. If you identify your high-potential employees but don't give them a mentor, a stretch assignment, or a raise, they will leave. You basically just identified the best people for your competitors to headhunt.
How to Actually Use the Nine Box for Growth
So, you've mapped everyone out. Now what? You need a specific plan for each of the three main tiers.
1. Developing the High Potentials
These people need more than just a "good job." They need pressure. Not the "work 80 hours" kind of pressure, but the "solve this problem we’ve never solved before" kind. Give them access to the board. Put them in charge of a cross-functional task force. They need to see a path upward, or they’ll find one elsewhere.
2. Supporting the "Solid Citizens"
Don't ignore the middle of the grid. These are the people who provide stability. They might be perfectly happy where they are. They don't want your job; they want to do their job well and go home at 5 PM. Respect that. Give them lateral moves to keep them engaged, or let them become deep subject matter experts.
3. Managing the Low Performers
This is the part everyone hates. But you have to do it. Is it a "will" issue or a "skill" issue? If they can't do the job, train them. If they won't do the job, it’s time for a performance improvement plan (PIP). It sounds harsh, but keeping a low performer in a role they’re failing at is cruel to them and exhausting for the rest of the team.
Real-World Nuance: The "Expert" Trap
There is a specific box on the grid—usually High Performance, Low Potential—that we often call the "Specialist." These people are brilliant at what they do. They are the best coders, the best accountants, the best engineers. But they have zero interest in managing people.
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In many companies, the only way to get a raise is to move into management. This is a massive mistake. You end up losing your best individual contributor and gaining a mediocre manager. The nine box talent grid should help you identify these people so you can create a "technical track" for them. Pay them like a VP, but let them keep coding.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Talent Review
If you’re about to dive into a talent review cycle, don't just wing it.
- Define your terms upfront. Write down exactly what "potential" looks like in your specific company culture before you look at a single name.
- Gather multi-source feedback. Don't rely solely on the direct manager. Get 360-degree input.
- Focus on the "Why." For every person placed on the grid, the manager should have three specific examples to justify the placement.
- Schedule the "Now What" meeting. The talent review shouldn't end when the grid is full. Schedule a follow-up two weeks later specifically to discuss development plans.
The nine box talent grid is a tool, like a hammer. In the hands of a skilled builder, it creates a house. In the hands of someone who doesn't know what they're doing, it just breaks things. Use it to start conversations, not to end them. Focus on the development that happens after the meeting, and you'll actually see a return on the time you spent staring at those nine squares.
Stop looking at the grid as a way to rank people and start looking at it as a way to understand what they need from you. Whether it’s a challenge, a steady hand, or a graceful exit, every person in those boxes deserves a clear path forward. That is the real work of leadership.