The stock market never actually sleeps, but on a Sunday like today, January 18, 2026, the tickers are frozen. If you’re checking the price right now, you’re seeing the fallout from Friday’s close. Nvidia stock settled at $186.23, down about 0.44% from the previous day. It’s a tiny dip, basically a rounding error for a company with a $4.5 trillion market cap. But the vibe? The vibe is tense.
Markets are closed for the weekend, and with Martin Luther King Jr. Day hitting tomorrow, we’ve got a long stretch where the only thing moving is the news cycle. And boy, is that cycle spinning. Between CEO Jensen Huang’s recent bombshells at CES and some weirdly conflicting signals coming out of China, there is a lot to chew on.
What happened to nvidia stock today and why the weekend is so quiet
Honestly, if you’re looking for a "crash" or a "moon mission" right this second, you won't find it. The market is holding its breath. Friday was a tug-of-war. The stock opened at $189.07, teased us by climbing toward $190.44, then slowly bled out to close in the red.
Why? Because the "H200 saga" is getting messy.
Earlier this week, the Trump administration gave the green light for Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China. That sounds like a win, right? Well, it came with a 25% tariff and a rule saying China can only buy half as many as the U.S. does. Then, on Friday, reports surfaced that Chinese customs were actually blocking shipments anyway. It’s a geopolitical headache that has investors second-guessing the "easy growth" narrative.
The Jensen Huang Factor
While the traders were bickering over tariffs, Jensen Huang was at CES 2026 basically telling everyone that the AI race is just getting started. He dropped a quote that’s been ringing in everyone’s ears: "The race is on for AI... the cost starts to decline about a factor of 10x every year."
He’s basically saying that as AI gets cheaper, the demand for Nvidia’s "picks and shovels" (the chips) will actually explode because everyone—not just the big tech giants—will be able to afford them.
The Numbers Nobody Talks About
Most people just look at the green or red daily percentage. That's a mistake. If you look under the hood, RBC Capital just initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $240. That's a massive 31% upside from where we are today.
Here is the weird part: Nvidia is actually trading at about 24x forward earnings. Compare that to its 5-year average of 50x. By historical standards, the most dominant company in the world is... kinda cheap? It’s a paradox. The stock is up over 1,000% in three years, yet the valuation hasn't kept pace with the insane earnings growth.
Recent Daily Performance (Jan 2026)
- Jan 16 (Friday): $186.23 (Down 0.44%)
- Jan 15 (Thursday): $187.05 (Up 2.13%)
- Jan 14 (Wednesday): $183.14 (Down 1.44%)
- Jan 13 (Tuesday): $185.81 (Up 0.47%)
It’s been a week of zig-zags. Thursday was the highlight, fueled by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reporting a 35% jump in profit and announcing they're hiking their 2026 spending to $56 billion. When your manufacturer says they’re spending that much on capacity, they aren't doing it for fun. They're doing it because Nvidia has a massive backlog.
The China "Band-Aid" and Other Risks
Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research called the new export rules a "Band-Aid." It's a great description. The U.S. wants the revenue but doesn't want China to have the tech. China wants the tech but doesn't want to be dependent on the U.S.
Nvidia is stuck in the middle.
Some analysts, like those at Mizuho, are worried that institutional investors might start trimming their Nvidia positions to "chase" other red-hot sectors like memory chips or optical equipment. Micron and Western Digital have been on an absolute tear lately. If big funds need cash to buy those, Nvidia is the most liquid "piggy bank" they have.
Is the Blackwell Momentum Fading?
Not really. Colette Kress, Nvidia’s CFO, recently teased that the combined revenue for Blackwell and the upcoming Vera Rubin systems could hit $500 billion through 2026. And get this: that doesn't even count the new framework deal with OpenAI.
The Vera Rubin platform is already in production. It’s scheduled to ship in the second half of this year. We’re talking about a product cycle that moves faster than the market can price it.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
So, what do you actually do with this information while the market is closed?
First, ignore the "cliff" talk. A 0.4% drop isn't a trend; it's noise. The real catalyst is February 25. That’s when the next earnings report drops, and that will be the moment of truth for the Vera Rubin and Blackwell demand.
Next steps for your portfolio:
✨ Don't miss: Ringgit Malaysia to USD: Why the Exchange Rate is Doing That Right Now
- Watch the $180 support level. If the stock dips below that during the short week, it might signal a deeper rotation into other semiconductor plays.
- Monitor the 10-year Treasury yield. Tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and any "higher for longer" talk from the Fed this week could put pressure on NVDA's multiples.
- Keep an eye on the "Physical AI" news. Nvidia is moving beyond just chatbots. Their Cosmos world model and GR00T robotics platform are the next frontiers. If we see more partnerships like the Eli Lilly drug discovery deal, the "data center" narrative might shift to "global infrastructure."
Nvidia remains the sun that the rest of the tech world orbits. Whether it's a quiet Sunday or a frantic Friday, the story is always the same: it's Jensen's world, and we're just trading in it.